GABON: OPPOSITION IN DISSARAY FOLLOWING THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LIBREVILLE 000421

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/C FOR LISA KORTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV
SUBJECT: GABON: OPPOSITION IN DISSARAY FOLLOWING THE
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Eunice Reddick for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Gabonese opposition has been unable to present a
meaningful challenge to the results of the August 30 election
despite lingering questions about the legitimacy of the vote
count. With 18 candidates on election day, the opposition's
failure to coordinate split the vote, giving Ali Bongo Ondima
and the ruling Democratic Party of Gabon (PDG) their victory.
The opposition remains fractured and disorganized in the
aftermath of the election. Rudderless, the opposition is
unable to capitalize on public dissatisfaction with the
ruling party and Ali Bongo. The Gabonese opposition's future
is bleak, which will likely fuel growing public disillusion
with the political process as a means to improve the economy
and address labor unrest. END SUMMARY.

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THE OPPOSITION: NOTHING DOING
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2. (C) None of the presidential candidates could outline a
coherent plan to effectively challenge to Ali Bongo Ondimba's
likely inauguration as President. The Ambassador and emboffs
met with candidates Pierre Mamboundou of the Gabonese
People,s Union (UPG),Bruno Ben Moubamba (Independent) and
Yvette Ngwevilo Rekangalt (Independent) in the wake of the
election results. All protested the results, but none
articulated ways in which they were mobilizing public support
for their cause.

3. (C) When asked what his plans are for opposing the results
of the election Mamboundou, the most senior and
well-recognized member of the opposition in Gabon, held up
his hands, shrugged and said "What can we do?" Mamboundou
could only talk about the UPG's plans in vague generalities,
complaining that this is the third election stolen from him
by a member of the Bongo family. During the meeting
Mamboundou was non-committal if the UPG would formally submit
a challenge of the election results to the Constitutional
Court. While he said such a challenge was "likely" he could
not provide details. On September 17 the UPG submitted its
challenge based on claims of fraud in 67 percent of polling
centers, though UPG contacts told poloff they are not
optimistic the challenge will succeed.

4. (C) Rekangalt and Moubamba, both minor candidates in the
election, talked about general ideas to mobilize the public
in opposition to Ali Bongo. When pressed for details or a
timeline, neither could provide specifics. Rekangalt noted
she would submit a challenge to the election results based on
the question of Ali Bongo's heritage and the widespread rumor
that he is not Gabonese by birth and, thus, ineligible for
the presidency. Moubamba was skeptical about the role of the
Constitutional Court and did not plan on submitting a formal
challenge at all. Moubamba, who presented a number of cogent
arguments against PDG hegemony, left Gabon on September 13
for France and the U.S. where he will be the "international
spokesperson" for the opposition, a move that has wiped away
any positive feelings he garnered during his election bid and
headline-making hunger strike.

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A DEAFENING SILENCE
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5. (C) Neither Mambondou, Andre Mba Obame (the independent
candidate who also captured more than 25 percent of the
vote),nor any other opposition candidate has made public
appearances or enunciated a clear public message after the
election. All three candidates told emboffs that they had no
immediate plans for public appearances. They each attributed
the opposition's silence to restrictions by the Gabonese
Government on broadcast and print media and the pervasive
presence of security forces throughout Libreville to dissuade
public gatherings. Mamboundou and the opposition were
noticeably silent in the chaotic days following the election
when large groups of people took to the streets of Port
Gentil to loot. That silence has continued, with many
Gabonese now writing off the opposition as ineffectual or
disinterested.

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WHO WILL STEP UP?
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6. (C) At this point there is no likely successor to take up
the mantle of the opposition. Mamboundou is aging and his

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health is failing. Andre Mba Obame, while popular in areas
dominated by the Fang ethnicity, has not rallied the rest of
the country to his cause. The 13 other independent candidates
have no party structure or support beyond their immediate
campaign team. Other minor opposition personalities are
either seen by the Gabonese people as corrupt, secretly
allied with the ruling party, ineffectual or a combination of
all of the above. As a result, there is a growing leadership
vacuum in the opposition. Unlike the ruling party, there is
no clear inheritor.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Mamboundou's inability to lead in the critical days
following the announcement of the election results set a poor
precedent for the rest of the disorganized opposition. Even
the government vote count gave the opposition over 55 percent
of the vote, an indication of the general unpopularity of Ali
Bongo Ondimba and the ruling party. However, the
opposition's fissures may only deepen further, rendering it
incapable of capitalizing on Ali Bongo's weaknesses and
representing the interests of the population. The
opposition's continued ineffectiveness allows the PDG to
retain its dominance without any significant pressure to
improve governance, address labor unrest and expand the
economy. UPG may hope that, at a minimum, the late challenge
would force the Constitutional Court to keep the "clock"
ticking for another month while it considers the challenge
before Ali Bongo Ondimba could be inaugurated. Even if they
believe their effort is futile, it could call into question
Ali Bongo Ondimba's commitment to the rule of law if he
short-circuits the process. END COMMENT.
REDDICK