GABON: THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: DOUBTS ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LIBREVILLE 000412

SIPDIS

AF/C FOR LISA KORTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL GB
SUBJECT: GABON: THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: DOUBTS ABOUT
THE VOTE COUNT

REF: 09 LIBREVILLE 00405

Classified By: Ambassador Eunice Reddick for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Gabon,s presidential election process continues to
move forward. On September 4, Ali Bongo Ondimba was
announced as the winner of the August 30 presidential
election (Reftel). Opposition requests for an independent
vote count were rejected. Losing candidates have 15 days
(until September 19) to submit their challenges to the
results before Bongo officially becomes president. Given
charges of inflated voters lists and ballot box tampering, we
expect the challenges will likely feature inconsistencies
between the demographics and voter turnout in Bongo's home
province, the largest source of his votes. Opposition
candidates appear to have no common strategy to effectively
challenge the election outcome, despite winning 58 percent of
the vote. As a result, there is likely to be insufficient
evidence to conclude that Bongo "stole" the election from one
of his two closest competitors ) Pierre Mamboundou or Andre
Mba Obame. END SUMMARY.

--------------
CONCERNS ABOUT THE NUMBERS
--------------


2. (C) As of September 10, no candidate had filed an official
challenge to Ali Bongo Ondimba's victory in Gabon,s August
30 election. According to Gabon's Constitution, the
candidates have 15 days after the Constitutional Court's
verification of the official results on September 4 to file a
challenge. This means the opposition has until September 19
to challenge the results. Opposition and independent
candidates, including runner-up candidates Pierre Mamboundou
and Andre Mba Obame, claim widespread fraud based on inflated
voters lists and ballot box tampering. Some candidates have
partial vote tallies gleaned from their representatives in
voters' bureaus around the country on election day.
Mamboundou shared his vote count with emboffs which showed
him winning the election with 41 percent of the vote. Both
Mamboundou and Bruno Ben Moubamba registered their complaints
with the Ambassador and emboffs, but lacked confidence in the
Constitutional Court's independence and were non-committal on
whether they would file formal challenges to Bongo's victory.
Besides requesting an internationally-monitored recount, the
opposition has done little else to effectively represent the
interests of the majority of voters, who did not vote for
Bongo. Both warned that "things were not over" but could not
provide a specific strategy for the way forward.


3. (C) Most observers agree on one significant
inconsistency: the large turnout and vote count from
Haut-Ogooue, home province of the Bongo family and Teke
ethnic group. Haut-Ogooue is a sparsely populated, densely
forested region which lacks significant infrastructure. It
was the only province that voted, according to Ministry of
Interior numbers, overwhelmingly for Ali Bongo. The
government reported before the election two largest voter
populations were the 88,490 eligible voters in Haut-Ogooue
and the 77,292 voters in Ogooue-Maritime (the province with
the second most populated city in Gabon, Port Gentil, and a
traditional opposition stronghold). However, other
government statistics indicate there are approximately 44,000
people in Franceville, Haut-Ogooue province and 111,000
people in Port Gentil, Ogooue-Maritime province. Most
observers do not accept that Port Gentil and its province had
10,000 fewer eligible voters than Haut-Ogooue.


4. (C) According to the Ministry of Interior, 58,210 people
voted in Haut-Ogooue -- almost 65 percent of eligible voters
-- a number that is considerably higher (by 15 percentage
points) than any of Gabon's eight other provinces. Embassy
monitors that visited multiple sites in Libreville, Oyem in
Woleu-Ntem province, and Port Gentil reported participation
rates closer to 30 percent across the board.


5. (C) According to Embassy analysis, without the large
number of votes from Haut-Ogooue, Ali Bongo's 41 percent of
the overall vote shrinks significantly. Controlling for a
voting percentage in Haut-Ogooue closer to that in other
provinces and a more reasonable voting population, Ali Bongo
would lose 6 ) 12 percent of his overall official vote
count, bringing him within the margin of error of the other
two leading vote-getters; Pierre Mamboundou with 25 percent
and Andre Mba Obame with 26 percent. Other provinces,

LIBREVILLE 00000412 002 OF 002


particularly those bordering Haut-Ogooue, also have
suspiciously high voter turnouts as well, which coupled with
the discrepancies in Haut-Ogooue could push Ali Bongo,s
numbers even lower. The inflated numbers also fuel rumors
that "foreigners" from Republic of Congo, which borders
Haut-Ogooue, and other non-citizens were registered during
the revision of the electoral lists prior to the election.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) It is not likely that regional vote inflation will
overturn the election on its own, but more realistic numbers
from Haut-Ogooue would have eroded the comfortable win margin
for Ali Bongo, forcing him to be more amenable to negotiating
with the opposition. Moreover, Haut-Ogooue benefited greatly
from the financial windfalls from the late President Bongo
and anything less than an overwhelming rally behind his heir
apparent, Ali, would have been seen as a significant blow to
Ali's presidential bid. Minister of Interior Ndongou has
acknowledged problems with the revision of the electoral
lists, attributing duplicate names and other errors to the
short period for the revision. However, discontented
candidates and Gabonese are reading purposeful intent into
what the Minister has called unintentional "human error." To
date, no challenges have been filed in the Constitutional
Court, which opposition candidates dismiss as a rubber stamp.
We continue to urge all parties to respect the process and
seek peaceful and constitutional means of redress. END
COMMENT.
REDDICK