GABON: IS THE VOTERS LIST INFLATED?

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000395

SIPDIS

AF/C FOR LISA KORTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL GB
SUBJECT: GABON: IS THE VOTERS LIST INFLATED?

REF: 09 LIBREVILLE 00389

Classified By: Ambassador Eunice Reddick for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Independent candidate Bruno Ben Moubamba was
hospitalized briefly on August 22 in the 7th day of his
hunger strike (reftel). He returned to his spot at the
entrance of the National Assembly after being treated and is
now drinking juices. Prior to the start of the hunger strike
Moubamba, along with ten other candidates, submitted a report
alleging irregularities in the electoral process. One of the
concerns mentioned in the report is the revision of the
electoral list and the possibility of fraud that could result
from an inflated number of registered voters. A Gabonese
journalist has challenged the government's figure of 813,164
registered voters as a result of the revision of the voters'
list. The accuracy of the revised list and concern about an
inflated number of registered voters are likely to fuel
suspicion of fraud after the election results are in. END
SUMMARY


2. (SBU) The daily l'Union newspaper carried an article on
August 22 about independent candidate Bruno Ben Moubamba's
hunger strike and a commentary that noted the cynicism of
some observers who regarded his hunger strike as a
"marketing" and campaign technique. However, the
commentator, a l'Union journalist, found some reason in
Moubamba's denunciation of the electoral list revision.

3. (SBU) The journalist highlighted the number of
registered voters announced August 14 by the Minister of the
Interior -- 813,164 registered voters in a population of 1.5
million. Citing Gabon's 1993 census, the journalist noted
there were 416,190 children below the age of 15 and 100,448
adolescents between the ages of 15 and 17 in a total
population of 1,014,976. Combining the two figures, the
journalist pointed out that there were 516,538 Gabonese under
the age of 18 in 1993 -) more than half the population was
ineligible to vote. Using the same ratio of youth under the
age of 18 to the entire population today of about 1.5
million, the journalist concluded that the Interior Ministry
figure of more than 800,000 registered voters appeared to be
inflated.

4. (C) Comment: The breakdown of the population statistics
was the first analysis we've seen that challenges the results
of the government's electoral list revision. Moubamba and
other independent and opposition candidates demanded an
extension of the revision period to improve the accuracy of
the list. While there may have been some improvements in the
list after a longer revision process, the results may not
necessarily have been more reliable. Gabon's census
statistics are notoriously unreliable. To illustrate, the
journalist chose to cite 1993 census figures and reject those
of the widely denounced 2003 census for his commentary.
Besides failing to revise the electoral list annually as
required under law, Gabon's government also has been unable
to come up with an accurate count of a population that
includes over 100,000 migrants from other African nations,
most of whom have not legalized their status. Speculation
about the number of registered voters has fed rumors that the
ruling party has surreptitiously registered "foreigners" (ex,
Congolese in Haut Ogooue province) and apprehension about the
validity of the results of the election. END COMMENT.
REDDICK