SENATE MURDER PLOT TURNS INTO PANDO "TELL ALL"

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000094

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2029
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR VN BL
SUBJECT: SENATE MURDER PLOT TURNS INTO PANDO "TELL ALL"

REF: A. 08 LA PAZ 2543

B. 08 LA PAZ 2483

C. 08 LA PAZ 2374

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Joe Relk for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary: Bolivian television networks aired testimony
January 19 from the supposed organizer of the pro-government,
September 11, 2008 campesino (peasant farmer) march in Pando
Department that accuses Presidency Minister Juan Ramon
Quintana of arming the group with the purpose of violently
overthrowing Pando Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez. The march
resulted in bloody confrontations with opposition
sympathizers and 17 deaths, according to Bolivia's Human
Rights Ombudsman (reftels). In the video, Blusher Niels
Alpire also accused Quintana of asking him to kill opposition
Senator Roger Pinto and heading up trumped-up arrests of
opposition-aligned leaders in Pando during the September to
November state of siege. Shortly before the story broke,
Pinto told PolOff that he had arranged the taping early the
same day, was hiding Alpire, and had more proof he would
release after the January 25 constitutional referendum.
Pinto hoped the video and "more proof" to come would
completely discredit the government's version of a Pando
"massacre" of campesinos and turn international opinion
against Bolivian President Evo Morales. We are more
skeptical. Pinto also hoped the testimony would serve to
insulate him from alleged government plots against him. End
Summary.

Twas the Night Before Christmas: Pinto Outlines Murder Plot
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Opposition Senator Roger Pinto (Podemos, Pando;
strictly protect) told PolOff the principal field commander
of the September 11 campesino march in Pando Department
(state),Blusher Alpire, came to his house December 24 to
explain that he had rejected orders from Cobija City
Councilman and pro-government radical Miguel "Chiquitin"
Becerra to assassinate Pinto. Alpire alleged Chiquitin
called him November 27 to tell him that Presidency Minister
Juan Ramon Quintana had ordered Pinto be killed and that he
was selected to carry out the assassination. Alpire, who
describes himself as Chiquitin's close associate, sometime
bodyguard and driver, and all-purpose thug, originally said
he couldn't do it because he didn't have the right weapon for
a close-quarters assassination job (AR-15 automatic rifle).


3. (C) Within days Chiquitin provided Alpire two
military-issue 9mm pistols and a bullet-proof vest, which
Chiquitin allegedly claimed were sent compliments of
Quintana, and said $10,000 would be waiting for him after the
hit. Running out of excuses, Alpire said he simply refused
to shoot Pinto. Chiquitin was not pleased, but did not
punish Alpire and simply found another would-be assassin, a
Brazilian code named Pantera (panther).

Alpire Turns for Love of Money, not Love of Pinto
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Alpire told Pinto he declined to accept the offer
because Pinto's family had been charitable to his poor Cobija
family through church activities. Alpire added that he
recognized Pinto was not a rank-and-file "Leopoldista"
(supporter of ex-Prefect/governor Leopoldo Fernandez, who was
arrested in September),which he had less scruples about
killing. According to Pinto, Alpire also expressed second
thoughts about his activities on September 11 to "force a
confrontation" with Fernandez's backers. However, Pinto
insisted Alpire turned on Chiquitin not out of any abiding
love for Pinto, but because Chiquitin did not deliver on
promises to pay Alpire in full for his organization of the
September 11 march and other political organizations.
Opposition strategist and close Pinto associate Javier Flores
(strictly protect) told PolOff January 21 that Alpire's
convictions were 20 percent of the reason he turned on
Chiquitin, but that "revenge" for unfulfilled Chiquitin
promises was 80 percent.

Alpire Confession's Potential to turn Bolivia Inside Out
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Pinto said he immediately started trying to convince
Alpire to go public, recognizing that his testimony would
"turn the government version (of Pando events) on its head,"
gravely discredit its officials and its characterization of a
Pando "massacre," and have a huge negative impact on
international opinion and "anyone's ability to take this
government at its word." Although he generally discounted
the domestic political impact of Alpire's testimony, Pinto
thought the political blowback from "proving the government
lied" about Pando might tip the balance against a
government-sponsored January 25 constitution referendum in
departments where the vote is closely contested. Pinto
speculated that Alpire's story might be enough to force
Quintana to stand down once a Senate investigation is
launched, although he assumed in such an event Quintana would
continue to influence events as an unofficial Morales
advisor. (Note: Quintana is already under congressional
investigation for corruption. End Note).

Pinto Brings Alpire to La Paz for "Tell All"
--------------


6. (C) Pinto claimed he convinced Alpire to come with him to
La Paz after the holidays. Pinto said "we are" currently
hiding Alpire in La Paz, referring to a close-knit group of
Podemos-affiliated congressmen, evangelicals, and opposition
leaders. Alpire allegedly told Pinto that Chiquitin offered
him 400,000 Bs to come back to Cobija, but Alpire "knows too
much," according to Pinto, to risk going back and was "smart
enough to know that he's in danger if he returns." Pinto and
his associates had been desperately trying to find a
prosecutor to take Alpire's case, testimony, and evidence,
after which Alpire would meet with two or three select media
contacts for a "tell all" interview and then promptly leave
the country. Pinto said Alpire would then spend two or three
years in hiding in the third country (hinting Peru) before
publicly reemerging, perhaps in Bolivia pending a change of
government. Alpire has no passport, only an identification
card, according to Pinto.
Plan B: Record, Release, Run
--------------


7. (C) Flores told PolOff that by January 19, the plan had
changed and the Alpire video, recorded that morning, was
released directly to the media. Flores said "it was just
impossible to find a prosecutor and judge" who was suspect of
being bought off or otherwise vulnerable to government
control. Flores said they would continue to pursue a legal
complaint and (less likely) Senate investigation, but not
until after the January 25 constitutional referendum. He
claimed the video's release just before the referendum had
"zero" political motivation and was instead rushed out "in
order to protect Alpire," who had called Chiquitin January 17
or 18, asking him for money to return from "Santa Cruz."
Although Alpire was never in Santa Cruz, Flores said
"Chiquitin immediately sent people out to find him."


8. (C) Portions of the video aired on various Bolivian
networks' evening broadcasts January 19 (one network devoted
about 20 minutes to it). Alpire made all the accusations
Pinto had predicted and displayed the weapons and vest. He
added that Chiquitin had also offered to buy Alpire the house
he was living in for killing Pinto and stressed his role
directing arrests of Pando opposition leaders during a
September to November state of siege. "All the arrests made
in Pando I conducted, accompanied by at least six soldiers
... We had a long list, including senators Roger Pinto and
Paulo Bravo. Because we could not detain them, we
compensated by detaining leaders, people linked to
(opposition) politics ... but people that were not even in
the area (Porvenir) during the day of the conflict." He
added that Chiquitin had provided him $7,000 to buy weapons
for the march September 8 and displayed photos of the
September 11 violence, apparently from the vantage point of
the marchers, including of slain prefect engineer Pedro
Oshiro Yoshida. Alpire said "his friend" Pantera shot Oshiro
and that he would release additional photos.

Government's Unsurprising Response: Alpire is a Liar
-------------- --------------


9. (U) Chiquitin conceded publicly January 19 that he vaguely
knew Alpire, but that he never worked for him. The same day
Vice Minister of Justice Wilfredo Chavez called Alpire a
"liar" paid by Pinto to spread "accusations that lack
seriousness." Presidential Spokesman Ivan Canelas called the
charges "a political show" designed to influence the January
25 constitutional referendum.

Pinto Ups the Ante and Accuses Evo
--------------


10. (U) Pinto responded to Alpire's confession January 20,
accusing President Evo Morales of complacency in the plot and
stating "if anything happens to me or my family, President
Morales should be held responsible." Pinto also criticized
Government Minister Alfredo Rada for asking Alpire to present
his testimony to the Pando prosecutor with security
"guarantees," and then threatening to arrest him for the
"crime" of transporting arms without a license. "My country
has become completely backwards. The government is
protecting the culprit (Quintana) and making charges at the
witness (Alpire)."

Pinto's High-Stakes Gambit Short on Smoking Guns
-------------- ---


11. (C) Days before the video was recorded and released,
Pinto conceded that beyond implicating Quintana, Becerra, and
Filadelfia Mayor Antonio Aguilera of
financing/organizing/arming the march to sack Fernandez as
violently "as necessary," he did not know the full extent of
the information Alpire had gathered or planned to share. "We
are not friends; he does not tell me everything." As far as
hard evidence, Pinto cited the military-issue weapons,
bullets, and bullet-proof vest. Flores asserted that "more
proof" would emerge as additional segments of the hour and
half Alpire video are released to the media, which would
include testimony that Venezuelans had helped organize the
march and that Venezuelans had helped Quintana orchestrate a
cover-up.


12. (C) Flores said Alpire had a large collection of
"evidence:" videos, photos, and recordings, not all of which
he has shared with Pinto's group. Flores said Alpire
recorded two conversations with his cell phone between
himself, Quintana, and Chiquitin organizing the march on
September 8. He provided one recording of an innocuous
conversation to Pinto's group, which only proves they know
each other. Pinto said Alpire is holding another recording
for money, in which Quintana talks about gathering arms to
violently sack Prefect Fernandez. Flores added that "it is
only a matter of time" before Pandinos contradict
Chuiquitin's contention he didn't really know Alpire. The
government Pando prosecution team conceded Alpire was "an
actor" in the September 11 Porvenir conflict as video of
Alpire driving a Filadelfia municipal pick-up truck through
Porvenir emerged in local TV reports. (Note: The video later
shows explosions emanating from crates in the back of the
truck, which the opposition contends was filled with bullets
and government backers contend was filled with fireworks.
End Note.) Flores said Pinto would wait until after January
25 to take additional action in the case to "lend credence
that the case is not political," with the exception of
possibly releasing the recording of Alpire talking to
Chiquitin, proving a familiar relationship. Flores said
Alpire "was safe," but refused to disclose his location.

Pinto: GOB Out to Shut My Big Mouth; Silence Opposition
-------------- --------------


13. (C) When asked why Quintana focused on him instead of
other opposition leaders, Pinto said "because I'm the only
one who didn't keep his mouth shut." He said he is the only
opposition leaders from Pando who has not shied away from
criticizing the government. Pinto claimed that the state of
siege and subsequent arrests had succeeded to brining the
rest of Pando's opposition to heal, which he claimed was the
principal reason for invoking the police state. Pinto
conceded that friend and fellow Senator Paulo Bravo had to be
repeatedly cajoled to campaign publicly against the
referendum and that National Unity Senator Jose Villavicencio
"has hardly been seen" since September 11, fearing arrest.
Pinto added abut 200 opposition-aligned Pandinos continue to
live as refugees on the Brazilian side of the border, 104 of
them with Bolivian government arrest orders. Pinto added
that about 700 of 900 Pandinos that had fled to Brazil to
avoid government prosecution had returned to Pando in
December after the arrest warrants became public.


14. (C) Pinto claimed the military was given special
instructions to detain, not arrest, Pinto and Fernandez's
nephew Lorenzo Fernandez during the Pando state of siege, and
"shot them on their doorsteps" if they offered up the
"slightest hint of resistance." He characterized this as
giving the troops a wink and nod to kill them. Pinto claimed
after Quintana was unsuccessful getting rid of him during the
state of siege, when he had "complete control of Pando,"
Quintana resorted to crude assassination. Alpire allegedly
told Pinto that Quintana wanted Pinto silenced because he was
"sick of Pinto" and it was clear government pressure was "not
working" on him. Alpire allegedly also said Quintana hoped
such a killing would "cause the opposition to implode upon
itself in fear" and Chiquitin hoped it would scare away
would-be assassins gunning for him.

Alpire as Life Insurance Policy
--------------


15. (C) Despite the alleged contract on his life, Pinto has
no immediate plans to leave the country and will instead
"continue fighting the government" in the Senate. Pinto
hoped Alpire's testimony would act as a kind of insurance on
his life, as the government would decide not to kill him to
avoid being instantly implicated. Pinto claimed ex-Prefect
Fernandez was skeptical of Alpire and the ability of his
testimony to shield Pinto from harm. "They might just use it
to arrest you," Fernandez allegedly told Pinto. (Note: Pinto
did not clarify how or when he communicated with the jailed
Fernandez. End Note.)

Comment:
--------------


16. (C) It is certainly possible that Pinto paid Alpire to go
public with his claims, but that does not necessarily mean
the charges are baseless. At a minimum, the charges
represent a very public questioning of the government's
highly politicized and manipulated version of the Pando
events, endorsed by the Unasur report, which the
international community should hear. We share Prefect
Fernandez's alleged skepticism of Alpire's claims and
motives. Also, although Pinto and Flores assure more proof
is on the way, there is for the moment little indisputable
proof to back up the crux of Alpire's claims. The
government's blunt knee-jerk reaction that Alpire is a liar
may be enough for the international community, at least
before the January 25 constitutional referendum.
Investigating the charges will require time and even if
Alpire's story can be corroborated, for example by tracking
the serial numbers on the weapons, such corroboration is
unlikely to sway Morales' base supporters, who may well not
care if Quintana deliberately provoked the Pando conflict.
Like the Senate investigation of Presidential Palace guard
Lt. Jorge Nava for bombing a television affiliate in Tarija,
the domestic effect in this case is likely only to galvanize
the opposition -- preaching to the choir. Murder, money,
mayhem, and political manipulation with the constitutional
referendum just days away -- you just can't make this stuff
up ... or can you? End Comment.
URS