Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09LAPAZ90
2009-01-22 11:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

SANTA CRUZ "NO" CAMPAIGN WORKING FOR EVERY VOTE

Tags:  PGOV ECON ASEC CONS BL 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000090 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV ECON ASEC CONS BL
SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ "NO" CAMPAIGN WORKING FOR EVERY VOTE

Classified By: Acting ECOPOL Chief Joe Relk for reason 1.4 (b)

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000090

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV ECON ASEC CONS BL
SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ "NO" CAMPAIGN WORKING FOR EVERY VOTE

Classified By: Acting ECOPOL Chief Joe Relk for reason 1.4 (b)


1. (C) With less than a week before the January 25
constitutional referendum, both the pro-government "Yes" and
the anti-government "No" campaigns have stepped up efforts in
Santa Cruz Department (state). Pro-government Movement
Toward Socialism (MAS) forces have a higher campaign budget
in Santa Cruz, as evidenced by a heavy advantage in the
number of billboards and media propaganda. On the other
hand, the "No" campaigners have a lot more enthusiasm and
support in this pro-opposition bastion. Every statue in
Santa Cruz is dressed in the rainbow-colored "No" stickers
that dancing, drum-beating youth (on vacation from
universities and schools until February) hand out on
seemingly every corner of the capital. Vice President Garcia
Linera visited the heavily MAS-aligned town of "El Torno" 30
kilometers outside Santa Cruz on January 14 to hand out land
titles to settlers (most of whom come from rural areas of
Cochabamba Department). However, he and other government
ministers have not ventured out of "safe" pro-MAS zones
during their campaign. President Morales caused uproar in
Santa Cruz when he recently "inaugurated" an unfinished
bridge on the major route to Brazil. The bridge was largely
funded by a Korean donation, with significant department
funds. The Santa Cruz media widely criticized Morales for
his bravado in claiming credit for a bridge that was funded
by Korean and departmental funds, consists of struts and no
actual road, and probably won't be passable for a year.

Civic Committee SecGen's Department by Department Analysis
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Civic committee officials and Prefect (governor) Ruben
Costas are actively campaigning with daily events throughout
Santa Cruz Department (state). Civic Committee General
Secretary Mario Bruno told American Presence Officer that
polls show an overwhelming victory for the "No" vote in Santa
Cruz, but that he is worried about the opposition's goal of
winning in five of Bolivia's nine departments. He said
Tarija is a solid "No," and he was pleased by recent gains in
Chuquisaca, for which Prefect Savina Cuellar, an opposition
convert from the ruling Movement Toward Socialism party,
could claim much credit. The campaign in Beni, however, got
off to a late start and was not very robust, according to
Bruno. His largest concern was Pando Department due to its
small, 34,000 voter roll. Bruno said Pando would vote in
favor of referendum with many opposition leaders remaining in
Brazil to avoid arrest and the likely "Yes" votes from large
numbers of military and police sent to keep the peace after
the violent September 11 conflict. Bruno further said that
although the Santa Cruz civic committee was meeting with
international observers, they had little faith in those
observers. Bruno predicted fraud would be minimal in urban
areas where the observers would be located, but that fraud in
pro-MAS rural areas would be almost impossible to detect and
could skew the margin of victory. Bruno, prefecture
officials, and the general public are all skeptical of the
large number of "undecideds" in recent polls. They believe
most people have made up their minds by now, and the
"undecideds" really reflect an unwillingness to respond to
pollsters in such a politically-charged atmosphere.

Land Referendum's High Profile in Santa Cruz
--------------


3. (SBU) Though overshadowed by the constitutional question,
of particular concern to the Santa Cruz agricultural
community is a separate land-delimitation referendum also to
be decided January 25. Voters will choose to limit land
ownership to 5,000 or 10,000 hectares. President of the
Santa Cruz Rancher's Association Guido Nayar urged voters to
boycott the vote as a rejection of referendum's premise. He
explained that in areas such as the Bolivian Chaco, cattle
requires much more land than the government's base
calculation, making redistribution proposals inherently
unfair.
Santa Cruz Opposition Focuses on Peaceful Dissent
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) While conventional wisdom supports a Morales win for
the constitution, the margin of victory will influence how it
is interpreted in implementing legislation and how fast it is
implemented. Therefore, Santa Cruz opposition leaders will
continue working hard for every vote. Most of the leaders
EmbOff spoke with seem determined not to see a repeat of the
violent acts of September 2008, now largely viewed as
disastrous. As one prefecture insider said, "We lost more
(the moral high ground) than we ever could have hoped to gain
by taking over government institutions through force. We
learned our lesson. From now on we will use only peaceful
forms of resistance. We cannot overpower the MAS by using
violent tactics. ... That is their forte, not ours."
URS