BOLIVIA: NEIGHBOR RELATIONS NOT SO NEIGHBORLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000867

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR ENVR BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: NEIGHBOR RELATIONS NOT SO NEIGHBORLY

REF: A. LIMA 810

B. LIMA 794

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Joe Relk for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Bolivian President Evo Morales and his
ruling Movement Toward Socialism party (MAS) are enmeshed in
diplomatic flaps with neighbors, including: a growing feud
with Peru over asylum approvals for four former GOB ministers
and allegations of GOB support for a June 5 Peruvian
indigenous uprising in which two dozen police were killed; an
illegal GOB police arrest in Paraguay; and GOB anger
concerning Brazil's apparent decision to grant asylum to 118
Bolivians fleeing GOB prosecution related to the September
2008 Pando conflict. Meanwhile, Chilean diplomatic sources
affirm that while the GOB's relationship with Chile continues
to improve, Chile will ultimately not grant what the GOB
really wants: a corridor to the Pacific. While Morales is
known for fanning the flames of international disputes to his
domestic political advantage, this time the disagreements do
not appear to be playing to his benefit. End summary.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Peru: Extraditions, Border Disputes, and Revolution
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (U) Relations between Bolivia and Peru's governments have
been steadily declining for over a year. Morales and
Peruvian President Alan Garcia are engaged in a long-running
tiff, marked by a June 2008 episode in which Morales called
Garcia "fat" and "not very anti-imperialist." Garcia replied
by asking publicly why Morales "just doesn't shut up." In a
more recent March 26 outburst, President Morales accused
Garcia of filing a claim at the International Court of
Justice (IJC) regarding Peru's maritime border with Chile for
"personal and partisan political gain," saying "perhaps he
has become so fat that it has affected (his thinking)."
While the GOP has stressed that the sole purpose of the IJC
case is to remove a significant barrier to further economic
integration with Chile, for the GOB the filing is an
irritant, as it ignores Bolivia's desire to regain territory
lost in the War of the Pacific and may delay in GOB
negotiations with Chile to regain access to the Pacific.
Regarding the case, Morales said that, "I have information
that the Peruvian government knows that it is going to lose
the demand... They made the demand in order to punish
Bolivia."


3. (C) In a conversation with Poloff, diplomatic contacts at
the Peruvian embassy denied Morales' accusations that the
case was done to "punish Bolivia," but confirmed they did not
expect a final decision by the IJC for up to five years. One
of the diplomats, who served in Chile for several years,
opined that he could not imagine Chile ever giving Bolivia
territorial access to the Pacific ocean.


4. (C) Adding fuel to the fire, in early May four
ex-ministers who served under former Bolivian President
Gonzalo "Goni" Sanchez de Lozada fled to Peru and sought
asylum, which the GOP granted. (Note: The GOB is actively
moving forward in a Bolivian Supreme Court case against Goni
and several ex-ministers for the deaths of approximately 60
people in October 2003. End Note.) Morales called Garcia
"vulgar" for granting the asylum (even though the UN High
Commission on Human Rights actually found the individuals had
a well-founded fear of persecution in at least two of the
cases) and called for the ex-ministers' immediate
extradition. GOB-aligned social groups in El Alto threatened
to retaliate by expelling up to 10,000 Peruvian city
residents, according to Peruvian community leader Jose Luis
Quintana, but later "suspended" the decision. Peruvian
embassy sources noted that for all the GOB's extradition
demands, the GOB has refused to extradite dozens of suspected
Peruvian terrorists. The contacts confirmed they did not
believe the ex-ministers, much less Goni, could receive a
fair trial in Bolivia.


5. (U) In the latest conflict, President Morales on May 29
delivered a letter to an indigenous congress in Puno (an area
in southern Peru bordering on Bolivia),in which he said:
"Our struggle does not end. From resistance we are moving
forward to rebellion, and from rebellion to revolution. This
is the time for the second and definitive independence." The
GOP interpreted the text as a call for indigenous peoples to
rebel against the Garcia government, especially as the
comments came during a two-month strike by thousands of
indigenous protesters in northern Peru opposed to GOP
measures related to the proposed U.S. - Peru Free Trade
Agreement. A GOB spokesman said that Morales could not be
held responsible, because the letter was not addressed
specifically to indigenous Peruvians but to Congress members.
However, the organizer of the Congress had earlier announced
that the purpose of the congress was to "elect a Peruvian Evo
Morales."


6. (C) On June 5, the strike erupted into violence when
approximately 500 indigenous strikers killed up to two dozen
police officers, executing many of them after they had
surrendered (reftel A). The GOP blamed Morales for inciting
the violence, and Peruvian government contacts claimed the
GOB supported the social groups involved in the violence
(reftel B). GOB spokespersons heatedly denied any
connection. Media reports on June 9 stated that seven
suspected strike participants were detained by Peruvian
police in Puno with 9,500 USD. The men were reportedly
unable to explain how they had come to possess the relatively
large sum of money.


7. (U) On June 10, news sources quoted Peruvian Ambassador
Hugo de Zela Hurtado as saying that Peru would likely make a
formal statement to the Organization of American States and
the UN decrying Morales' interference in internal Peruvian
affairs. Other news sources suggested Peru could withdraw
their Ambassador in Bolivia as a mark of protest. News
sources also reported that approximately 100 members of
MAS-aligned social groups protested in front of the Peruvian
embassy on June 9, with social leaders blaming the Peruvian
government for the deaths of over 30 indigenous individuals.
Campesino leader and Morales ally Isaac Avalos called
President Garcia a "genocidal murderer."

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Brazil: Asylum for 118 Bolivians?
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


8. (U) Local media reported June 7 that Brazil's National
Council for Refugees agreed to give asylum to 118 Bolivians
allegedly involved in the September 11, 2008 conflict in
Bolivia's Pando department (state) in which an estimated nine
campesinos and two department workers died. The Brazilian
government has not officially confirmed this decision.
Initial press coverage of the issue was spurred by the June 5
statements made by Brazilian Minister of Justice, Taso Genro,
who defended the granting of refugee status to the Pandinos
based on the argument that "these are common people, workers,
businessmen. It does not matter to us whether they are
fleeing from conflicts from the (political) left or the
right." It is not clear whether or to what degree the
Brazilian Council is working with the UN High Commission on
Human Rights (UNHCR) in offering the asylum. Bolivian Vice
President Alvaro Garcia Linera on June 8 called upon the
Brazilian government to act within the framework of justice
and of international treaties concerning refugees. He said
the GOB would deliver "pertinent information" about the case
in hopes that the Brazilian government would not grant
asylum. MAS Congress Deputy Gustavo Torrico said "there has
been an excessive abuse and trampling of the UNHCR's rules on
granting asylum. If the UNHCR does this act, they are
protecting assassins, violators of human rights."

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Paraguay: Illegal Troop Incursions
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


9. (U) After President Morales called Paraguayan President
Fernando Lugo June 4 to assure him that GOB police forces had
not entered Paraguayan territory to make an arrest in a May
16 robbery case, GOB Government Minister Alfredo Rada
admitted June 9 that it appeared Bolivian police had in fact
done so, and apparently with the cooperation of a Paraguayan
military official. Paraguayan Vice President Federico Franco
had rejected the GOB's denials, saying: "I believe more in
what (Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Benitez) told us. He
provided a detailed report after having been in the place...
It is a very serious matter for two reasons. First, the
violation of our territory and then the participation of one
our army officials. This is why we agreed with the
Commander-in-Chief's decision to institute legal
proceedings."


10. (U) As part of an apology to the Paraguayan government,
Rada explained that the Bolivian border police commander had
not correctly reported where the arrest took place, and that
he had been fired for doing so. President Morales will
discuss the incident further with President Lugo during an
upcoming visit to Asuncion June 12.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Chile: No Access to the Pacific
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


11. (C) The Chilean Consul confirmed to PolOff that while
relations had improved between the GOB and the Chilean
government, GOB desires for a corridor to the sea would
likely never be realized. The Consul said Presidents Morales
and Bachelet speak so regularly Chilean MFA officers call
Morales her "phone buddy." Economic and military exchanges
are up, he continued, and even an official exchange of
Ambassadors could be forthcoming. "We are practically an
Embassy already, we will already have military, police, and
press attaches this year; it is only a matter of time (until
exchange of formal and full diplomatic missions)."


12. (C) The Consul said during the first year of the Morales
Administration bilateral relations were "difficult at a
working level." Chileans would offer what they felt were
generous compromises to the Bolivians, only to have the
Bolivians "demand everything," he said. "You have to
recognize that Evo Morales is not used to diplomatic
negotiation, he is used to a much tougher form of
negotiation" learned as a cocalero labor union leader. "Once
we understood how they operate, we realized that complete
intransigence was always the starting point" regardless of
the proposal. When the Chileans adopted less reasonable
opening positions and a more conciliatory tone, the Consul
said they gained some respect with their Bolivian
counterparts and "started making progress."


13. (C) Although the Consul said the GOC "won't agree to
divide Chile" in order to provide Bolivia access to the
Pacific Ocean, he said establishing a Bolivian port enclave
in Arica was "possible." He discounted consideration of any
other port location. The Chileans, he asserted, would pursue
a strategy of slowly rolling out agreements on less
contentious issues (water rights/Silala River, border
demining, economic engagement) in order to placate the
Bolivians on the issue of regaining access to the Pacific.
He said the Chileans would try to "make reasonable arguments"
to the Bolivians in the meantime that it is not in their own
best interests to regain lost territory "that they cannot
manage." He argued that if the Bolivians got what they
wanted, a swath of territory linking them to the ocean, they
"couldn't afford to build up or maintain" the transportation
infrastructure needed to properly service a connection to a
port. He said the Bolivians would do better economically to
accept a deal with the Chileans for port access, with the
Chileans financing road and rail improvements. He recognized
the sea access issue had the potential to reverse bilateral
progress, but hoped that visible benefits from improved trade
relations would soften the Bolivian position over time.


14. (SBU) However, Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca
appears to be running out of patience concerning sea access,
stating June 4 that "the time for truth" on the matter with
Chile has arrived. Although he also recently highlighted
good relations with Chile and said he was "satisfied " with
efforts during the first three years of the Morales
Administration to build trust, he added that the time for
resolution of Bolivia's desire for sea access issue should be
at hand and that "no foreign factors will hinder that desire."

- - - -
Comment
- - - -


15. (C) President Morales has made a regular habit of
inflaming relations with other countries to rally his
domestic political support, whether by "playing the victim"
or cultivating a posture of "Bolivia vs. the world." This
time, however, the political costs seem to have outweighed
any benefits. While the GOB's relationship with Peru has
been deteriorating for some time, "friendlier" countries such
as Brazil and Paraguay took a surprisingly firm stand against
the GOB. Additionally, although relations with Chile have
significantly improved, it seems ill-disposed to grant
Morales' dream of regaining access to the sea. If Bolivia
seeks, with Venezuela, to export its socialist revolution to
Peru, it may be advised to mend fences with its other
neighbors first. End Comment.
URS