CHARGE MEETING WITH FORMER VP CARDENAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000743

SIPDIS

WHA FOR KEVIN WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ASEC PTER BL
SUBJECT: CHARGE MEETING WITH FORMER VP CARDENAS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kris Urs for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: In a wide-ranging conversation on May 15,
Charge d'Affaires met with former Vice President and leading
opposition presidential candidate Victor Hugo Cardenas and
discussed Cardenas' campaign prospects, recent attacks
against political opponents by ruling Movement Toward
Socialism (MAS) party supporters, MAS tactics to leave the
Supreme Court without a quorum, a MAS plan to preempt
opposition on its left by setting up an "artificial"
opposition, the Santa Cruz "terrorism" case, the development
of a new electoral roll before December 6 elections, and
election monitoring. End summary.

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Cardenas Candidacy: On the Rise
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2. (C) Cardenas said private polling done by polling guru
Stanley Greenberg's firm regarding the upcoming December 6
presidential elections shows Cardenas on the rise and
President Evo Morales falling. While publicly available
Ipsos polls over the last month have placed Morales between
43 and 52 percent, Cardenas says Greenberg's private polling
shows support for Morales as low as 34 percent. Cardenas
went so far as to say Ipsos "was paid" by the MAS to bump up
Morales' numbers. In contrast, Greenberg's polls show
Cardenas cresting 20 percent, gaining momentum, and
comfortably ahead of any other opposition candidate. With
former President Carlos Mesa now out of the race, Cardenas
expects the next round of polls to show a further jump in his
support levels.


3. (C) Cardenas showed Charge a copy of CASH magazine, a
Santa Cruz-based publication, which called Cardenas the most
popular presidential choice in the country (including
Morales) and included a city-by-city popularity rating. The
breakdown showed Morales' main strength in the West and
Cardenas' in the East, as expected, but Cardenas pointed out
that in La Paz department the two were running neck and neck.
Interestingly, Cardenas asserted that the magazine cannot be
found on newsstands, because administration representatives
bought every copy they could find to keep the news from
circulating. "The government is very nervous -- very
nervous," Cardenas emphasized.


4. (C) Cardenas discussed his campaign strategy, saying he
was gaining even in the western, Altiplano part of the
country, where many traditionally associate him (negatively)
with former President Gonzalo "Goni" Sanchez de Lozada and
thus view him as a traitor. (Note: Cardenas was vice
president during Goni's first term and was the first
indigenous person to hold this office. End note.) Cardenas
said he was reaching out successfully in Aymara, via radio
broadcasts, to segments of the population that would
otherwise support President Morales and the MAS. He conceded
that there is a core group of rural poor that he may never
reach, but rattled off a long list of unions, social groups,
neighborhood associations, university groups, and
micro-business associations that are joining his cause.
Cardenas said despite MAS' predictions that the campo would
react violently to his presence in the campo, he and his
family traveled peacefully throughout small Altiplano
villages.

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Communitarian Justice = Mob Rule
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5. (C) Beginning May 20, Cardenas is traveling to Washington,
DC and potentially several European countries to make
political contacts, fundraise, and to file a case with the
Inter-American Court of Human Rights regarding the Morales'
administration's continued inaction on the invasion of his
home and subsequent attack on his wife and son, all of which
occurred under the pretext of "communitarian justice."
Cardenas mentioned that he had been part of the resistance
movement decades ago against dictators such as Generals Hugo
Banzer and Luis Garcia Meza and that their security forces
had tortured him. However, he said, neither group had gone
so far as to attack his wife, children, and relatives. "In
some ways the MAS is worse, more authoritarian than these
dictators were," he concluded.


6. (C) Cardenas later referred to the recent whipping of
former indigenous leader Marcial Fabricano for proposing
legislation that displeased Beni social groups aligned with
the MAS. Cardenas underlined that such beatings had nothing
to do with community justice, and were solely a pretext for
officially-sanctioned political "gang" violence designed to
pressure the opposition. He then somewhat gloomily added,
"there will be more."

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Bare Knuckle Fighting
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7. (C) Cardenas has several legal cases pending against
members of the Morales administration, including one
regarding Government Minister Rada's inaction in defending
his property, and he commented that the cases are costing him
dearly. However, the cases bring significant benefits as
well, including keeping pressure on the MAS and keeping the
story of the attack circulating in the popular consciousness.
Referring to the recent MAS-driven case against Supreme
Court President Eddy Fernandez (which has left the Supreme
Court without a quorum and halted much of its activity),
Cardenas said the Morales administration was acting to cover
up its corruption, particularly Rada. Eddy Fernandez,
Cardenas said, was just "one step," with other MAS-driven
cases pending against several other justices.

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Building a (Very) Loyal Opposition
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8. (C) In an aside to Poloff, Cardenas expressed his belief
that the recent distancing between MAS co-founder Roman
Loayza and the Morales administration, including Loayza's
pledge to start a new party and run against Morales for the
presidency, was a hoax. Cardenas explained that the MAS was
concerned about challenges arising from its left and sought
to launch its own, controllable opposition instead. By
occupying this political space for several months, he said,
Loayza would prevent other "real" opposition from arising.
Then, in perhaps November, Cardenas predicted that Morales
would make a gesture such as adding more indigenous
representation to his cabinet and Loayza would return to the
fold, all sins forgiven. With the MAS reunited just weeks
before the election, there would be no time for other leftist
groups to launch a serious campaign, preserving the MAS'
electoral base.

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"Terrorism" Costing Santa Cruz Dearly
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9. (C) Regarding the alleged terrorist cell in Santa Cruz,
Cardenas said while all the details may never fully emerge,
the Morales administration wasted no time in using
"terrorism" as an excuse to "silence" and "paralyze"
opposition Cruceno leadership, who fear they may be detained
or incarcerated indefinitely at the government's whim. He
said the government's actions had led to a kind of
"self-censorship" on the part of many business leaders.
(Note: On May 20, President Morales announced he asked his
cabinet to develop a supreme decree allowing him to
confiscate assets of businesses or media suspected of
collaborating with terrorist groups, without a trial. End
note.) Cardenas said several Cruceno leaders were making
deals with the MAS, paying money to be left out of an
expected roundup of suspects. Cardenas affirmed that there
is a reactionary faction in Santa Cruz that could well have
recruited such a group, calling it a "grave error" and one
that would result in a "loss of legitimacy."

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MAS Attacks on USG Down?
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10. (C) Cardenas asked Charge if he had noticed a lowering in
the level of MAS belligerency against the U.S. in recent
weeks. Charge responded that this did seem to be the case
and noted that the election of President Obama has made it
somewhat harder for the MAS to go on the attack. Cardenas
agreed but cautioned that the MAS' modus operandi was to find
internal and external enemies and then link them. He cited
the alleged terrorist cell as an example of an internal enemy
and urged caution, lest the USG be tied to this group as an
external partner. Given the lack of any other potential
external foe on the horizon, he said, he assumed the MAS
would at some point have to turn its sights on the USG again.

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Electoral Roll and Monitoring
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11. (C) Regarding the agreement to construct an entirely new
electoral roll ("padron") before December elections, Cardenas
expressed his doubts about the project's feasibility and said
he thought the MAS would try to pressure the opposition to
accept a "partially reconstructed" padron instead. He
emphasized that no electoral roll had ever been constructed
out of whole cloth in such a compressed timeframe and said he
thought the padron deficiencies would resurface as a campaign
issue in the coming months. While third justice Amalia
Oporto is closely aligned with the MAS, he said the National
Electoral Court as reconstituted with Jose Antonio Costa as
president and Roxana Ibarnegaray as the newest justice seemed
likely to be relatively impartial and professional.


12. (C) Cardenas expressed his respect for former President
Jimmy Carter's recent visit to Bolivia and his long
experience in promoting human rights, and said he would not
be adverse to the Carter Center participating in election
monitoring. Cardenas said length of time in country would be
an important element in any election monitoring program,
noting that in monitoring the January 25 constitutional
referendum both the European Union and Organization of
American States teams became more critical over time, which
was reflected in their final reports.

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Comment
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13. (C) Cardenas ended the meeting by asking for funding or
any other help the Embassy could provide. Charge explained
our need to remain impartial, while wishing Cardenas the best
of luck in the December elections. Cardenas' campaign
backers have estimated it will take up to USD ten million to
make a credible charge at the presidency. While such figures
pale in comparison to US elections, it will be difficult for
Cardenas to raise this level of financing, especially with
financial leaders anxious to distance themselves from being
associated too closely with the opposition. Cardenas may
have momentum, but Morales and the MAS are still in a
commanding position and have a history of beating Western
polling estimates. End comment.
URS