BOLIVIA: POLITICAL VIEWS FROM TARIJA STATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000698

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10 YEARS AFTER CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: POLITICAL VIEWS FROM TARIJA STATE

REF: A. LA PAZ 695

B. LA PAZ 659

C. LA PAZ 635

D. LA PAZ 578

E. 08 LA PAZ 1460

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Joe Relk for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary: A/DCM and PolOffs met with Tarija Department
(state) leaders during a May 7-8 outreach trip (reftel a).
Prefect (governor) Mario Cossio told us the GOB's
investigation into an alleged terror cell was a "show." He
said he would be the next prefect to be arrested largely
because the GOB has an eye on controlling Tarija's rich
natural gas resources. Cossio and Tarija business leaders
were generally pessimistic about the opposition's chances in
the December 6 national elections and look only to do well
enough in congressional contests to fight another day. The
MAS contacts we spoke to were universally supportive of USG
efforts in Bolivia and critical of President Morales, belying
the MAS' lack of true believers in Tarija. All contacts
reported support for greater Tarija autonomy and no contacts
expressed the view that the time was right for a
U.S.-Bolivian rapprochement. End Summary.

Cossio: Terror Investigation as Political Witch Hunt
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2. (C) Opposition-aligned Prefect Mario Cossio grimly
predicted to A/DCM that he would be the next opposition
prefect to be jailed. He dismissed the government's
investigation of an alleged terror cell, in which three
alleged terrorists were killed (refetels b and c),as "pure
political show" to create a pretext to "decapitate" the
already weak and fractured opposition. He claimed to have no
information on the alleged terror cell. Cossio said the
government has "no authority" to charge others with terrorism
after the Palace and Venezuelan Embassy were implicated in
the June 21 bombing of a Tarija television affiliate on the
eve of the 2008 Tarija autonomy vote (reftel e).

Cossio: Opposition Relegated to Damage Control in 2009
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3. (C) Cossio lamented that President Evo Morales would be
reelected in December 6 national elections and that the
opposition would need to support unity candidates for
congress to maintain any brake on Morales' power. Although
hopeful, Cossio was less than sanguine, however, about the
opposition's ability to decide on single candidates. He was
also noncommittal about his intent to run for reelection,
although other Tarija contacts contend he will run if for no
other reason to maintain prefectual legal immunity (Note:
These immunities have not protected ex-Pando Prefect Leopoldo
Fernandez, jailed since September. End Note.). Cossio said
the opposition would participate in the December elections
regardless of the degree of fraud or intimidation because
"there is nothing else we can do. If we do not participate
we will just be worse off in the end." Ultimately, Cossio
said the opposition needed to focus on staying politically
relevant and keep enough power in Congress to stay in the
game until after 2009, when opposition prospects might
improve. Cossio emphasized that legal democratic means were
the only option to oppose MAS advances.

Tarija Model as Opposition Alternative
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4. (C) Cossio added that Bolivians would eventually tire of
continued conflict and a worsening economy he associated with
the Morales Administration and would look to Tarija, where
"people are tranquil" and "we are growing." He proposed the
opposition use Tarija as a model for success nationally by
stressing equality (as opposed to special indigenous rights
proposed by Morales),government effectiveness, and economic
growth. Cossio used as an example Tarija Department's
universal health care, particularly aimed at new mothers and
small children, which offers "the same access to services and
benefits to everyone." Cossio stated that the opposition
"won't succeed unless we create a clear alternative agenda"
to Morales' "change agenda." "We need to show Bolivians that
there is more than one way to change the country."

Carter, Bilat, and Chaco
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5. (C) Cossio claimed despite requests from many other areas,
including within government-led departments, the voting law
passed April 14 (reftel d) only allows a December vote on
regional autonomy to the pro-MAS Chaco area, which straddles
opposition-controlled Tarija, Chuquisaca, and Santa Cruz
states. "This is clearly an attempt to weaken the
opposition," said Cossio, adding the government is using a
campaign against indentured servitude in the region as public
relations cover to achieve their real goal: control of Chaco
gas reserves. Cossio did not offer specifics regarding the
May 2 meeting between former President Jimmy Carter and
opposition prefects. "He (President Carter) seemed to be
uninformed about some things. We tried to inform him. He
was polite, but nothing will come of it." Cossio opined that
the U.S. was unlikely to "get anything" from a bilateral
rapprochement and that the timing was unfortunate for the
opposition, as they hoped to leverage generally high regard
for the United States in Bolivia to criticize Morales'
perceived botching of the relationship. He said any positive
recognition of Morales or "political gifts" by the Obama
Administration would be devastating to the opposition.

Tarija's Off-Script MAS Leaders: Pro-Autonomy and pro-U.S.?
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6. (C) Tarija's MAS leaders appear to either not have
received the anti-U.S. "empire" speaking points from the
Morales Administration or have chosen to ignore them.
Rodolfo Hugo Vargas, head of the MAS' Tarija caucus, told
PolOff, "We love the United States and we love USAID. Thank
you for everything you do and please keep doing it." MAS
Deputy Simon Zurita told PolOff many MAS leaders were in
disagreement with Morales' anti-U.S. posturing. Zurita said
in mixed company that "we thought Morales would be a Mandela,
but he has turned into a Mugabe."


7. (C) Marco Antonio Lema (strictly protect),an advisor to
four MAS congressmen and staffer on the Bolivian Congress'
Hydrocarbons Committee, explained the MAS never really gained
a foothold of true believers in Tarija, thus many MAS leaders
are "opportunists just in it for the jobs," as he conceded he
was. Lema said Tarija has largely escaped the violent
tensions in the rest of the country because MAS leaders are
moderate and hail from "the most pro-business department in
Bolivia."

MAS Advisor Advice to Morales: Don't Tread on Tarija
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8. (C) When asked if he was concerned if his pro-U.S.
sentiments could put him at risk, Lema angrily retorted that
no one had a right to question his integrity, adding that
Morales would do well not go on a public witch-hunt of MAS
dissidents, least he "loose Tarija completely." Lema noted
that when he was an advisor to Morales when he was a
congressman, "I tried to teach him about the gas industry but
he did not want to listen and he has continued with this
willful ignorance as President." Lema and petroleum industry
leader Fernando Villanueva (strictly protect) complained that
Morales' preference for Iranian investment in the gas
industry to Western direct investment was taking a toll on
Tarija's gas industry. "Policies that hurt our gas industry
and the government's position on autonomy will make it
difficult for any MAS gains here in December," said
Villanueva. Lema added that support for greater departmental
autonomy dates back decades, is "universal," and crosses
party lines in Tarija. He claimed Tarijenos were looking for
a third autonomy option, perhaps through a new referendum, to
bridge the impasse between the departmental autonomy statutes
passed in 2008 (deemed illegal by the federal government) and
the government's offer of autonomy through the new
constitution. Lema characterized Morales' newly established
Ministry of Autonomies as an attempt co-opt the autonomy
issue and "just another way to control Tarija that no
Tarijeno believes is a real option." Cossio said much the
same: "It is a ministry to prevent real autonomies."

Tarija Businessmen Bracing for Another Morales Term
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9. (C) A/DCM met with a group of 12 leading Tarija
businessmen who told us they fear donating to opposition
candidates in the wake of the government consideration of a
decree legalizing the seizure of assets of Bolivians linked
to terrorism or treason. "They are using the events in Santa
Cruz as an excuse to intimidate anyone they consider a threat
to their agenda," said Tarija Business Federation President
Manual Cuevas (strictly protect). The group was pessimistic
about the opposition's ability to select unity candidates
("In the end, we'll all vote for five different people.") and
its ability to mobilize voters based on issues. They
contended Bolivians are generally motivated to vote based on
identity (for candidates from similar backgrounds),even "at
the expense of their own interests." They contended the
worsening economy, a key opposition focus in 2008 recall
referendum, would only gain traction with voters in 2010,
when they believed the Bolivian economy would hit bottom.
They also perceived sharp increase in narcotics trafficking
through Tarija to Argentina, lamenting the complacency, if
not support, of law enforcement. Cuevas told PolOff a truck
full of coca leaves was stopped at the border in early May,
but the next day the truck was empty and consequently
released. "The media used to report on these things, but
these days no one says a word."
URS