Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09LAPAZ572
2009-04-13 21:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

NO ELECTION DEAL; MORALES: USG DEATH THREAT

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ENVR ASEC BL ECON 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHLP #0572/01 1032137
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P 132137Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0560
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 8941
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 6321
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0295
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 7504
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RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 0456
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RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6237
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 7168
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1933
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 1752
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000572 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ENVR ASEC BL ECON
PTER
SUBJECT: NO ELECTION DEAL; MORALES: USG DEATH THREAT

REF: A. LA PAZ 557

B. LA PAZ 496

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Charles Sellers for reasons 1.4 (b, d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000572

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ENVR ASEC BL ECON
PTER
SUBJECT: NO ELECTION DEAL; MORALES: USG DEATH THREAT

REF: A. LA PAZ 557

B. LA PAZ 496

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Charles Sellers for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: After five days of often heated debate, as
of 4:00pm April 13, President Evo Morales and his ruling
Movement Toward Socialism party (MAS) have been unable to
reach a satisfactory compromise with the opposition to pass a
constitutionally-mandated Electoral Transition Law (ETL). The
two sides are reportedly close to a deal, which would include
a significantly updated electoral roll and allow voting by
all Bolivians living abroad. Morales, in the midst of a
five-day hunger strike, announced he would not attend the
Summit of the Americas due to the importance attached to
passing the election law, but his spokesman later said he
could still attend, pending approval of the law. Morales
again unleashed harsh criticism of the USG, saying the DEA
tried to poison him in 2002 and that the Embassy is now
working with ultra-right wing groups to overthrow him. End
summary.

- - - - -
ETL Update
- - - - -


2. (C) Although under significant pressure to come to an
agreement, after five days of negotiation the
opposition-controlled Senate has refused to agree to a
compromise Electoral Transition Law (ETL). The ETL
establishes the rules for the December 6 election of the
president, vice president, and members of the new
Plurinational Assembly, but the opposition is concerned the
MAS wants to pass a law that would effectively guarantee them
a two-thirds majority in the new Plurinational Assembly, and
with it the ability to modify the constitution at will
(reftels).


3. (U) Although the two sides were close to an agreement as
early as April 9, they split rapidly after Vice President
Alvaro Garcia Linera tried to prematurely force a vote when
he saw that main opposition negotiators had gathered
temporarily in the Congress hall to discuss strategy,

creating a quorum. After an exchange of insults, chants of
protest, and an attempt by MAS members to physically prevent
the opposition from leaving, the opposition managed to halt
the vote and leave the Congress. Upon leaving the building,
opposition members including Senate President Oscar Ortiz and
Representative Ninoska Lazarte were forced to run a gantlet
of MAS deputies who mildly physically attacked and insulted
them. Although Garcia Linera proposed a reconsideration of
the vote for April 10, the two sides were estranged.


4. (U) After negotiating over the Easter weekend, the two
sides again moved closer to an agreement that would include
among its main features an electoral roll with biometric
security features and voting for all Bolivians living abroad.
In the past, the MAS and members of the National Electoral
Court (CNE) had insisted that revision of the electoral roll,
particularly with advanced security features, would be
impossible by the December 6 elections. The MAS had also
proposed to "phase in" voting outside Bolivia by
enfranchising only Bolivians living in Argentina. The
opposition complained that the electoral rolls were
fraud-ridden and that Argentina was a significant base of
support for the MAS, and refused to cede on these issues.
Over the weekend, President Morales suddenly changed course
and gave in to both opposition demands, with President
Morales agreeing to provide USD 35 million to create a new
electoral roll and offer the vote to all Bolivians living
abroad. Morales had planned to use the funds to acquire a
presidential aircraft.


5. (C) Senate President Oscar Ortiz and others are now
demanding that CNE President Jose Luis Exeni resign. After
stating for months that no major revision of the electoral
rolls would be possible before the December 6 elections,
Exeni quickly raised eyebrows when he gave his support for
the new compromise. His quick endorsement further confirmed
opposition suspicions that he is untrustworthy, does whatever
is politically expedient, and would try to deliver the
elections for the MAS. (Note: Under the old constitution,
President Morales selected Exeni to be court president.
Although he has shown signs of independence, the opposition
considers him Morales' confidant. End note.) According to
one opposition source, "momentum has built over the weekend
for Exeni's ouster. The MAS is proposing to keep Exeni but
add one or two opposition members onto the court as well.
This could happen, but the disagreement is prolonging
negotiations." Key to any agreement are the votes of
opposition Senators Boerth and Ruiz, who have thus far hewed
to the opposition agreement to prevent a quorum but are
considered moderates and open to MAS persuasion (or bribes).


6. (U) Last, late on April 13 the MAS changed its position on
the electoral rolls, and is now demanding that anyone be
allowed to register for the new electoral roll with any
identification document, not only the official carnet as
previously agreed.

- - - - - - - - - - -
Morales Skips Summit?
- - - - - - - - - - -


7. (U) On April 12, President Morales announced he would
attend neither the Summit of the Americas nor the preceding
shadow summit of ALBA countries. In a telephone discussion
with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, which was broadcast
over Bolivian state radio, Morales said "Bolivia comes first.
Let us win this battle for the countryside, which has been
oppressed, excluded, and marginalized by the oligarchy. That
is our battle." Chavez responded: "This battle of yours is a
battle of your people, and it is the battle of our people."
Previously, Morales had signaled his desire to attend the
Summit of the Americas to challenge President Obama to "lift
the Cuban blockade." The next day, Morales' spokesman said
he could still attend the Summit, depending on whether a deal
on the electoral law is struck.


8. (C) Our sources say Morales undertook his hunger strike
(now in its fifth day) to gain international sympathy, and
because he did not have enough support from social groups or
the military to forcibly close Congress. Similarly, his
announcement that he may skip the Summit of the Americas is
designed to garner domestic and international support for his
fight against the opposition.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
More (Imaginary) Death Threats
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


9. (U) Also on April 12, Morales said in an interview
broadcast on state television and radio that he had received
new information about a DEA plot to poison him in 2002, that
there are USG-financed paramilitary units in Santa Cruz
working to overthrow him, and that the USG and "fascist
right" are actively conspiring to kill him, along with the
vice president and ministers. "Perhaps our days are
numbered, because they (paramilitaries) continue to prepare
themselves. So everyone in the Bolivian countryside should
know, if anything happens to Evo, to Alvaro, to a minister,
it is the work of the fascist right that is organizing with
the support of the Embassy of the United States. We have
taken note. This is a battle, a battle of ideas."

- - - -
Comment
- - - -


10. (C) Post believes President Morales is indeed engaged in
a battle of ideas, and that he will continue to work to
solidify the "MAS revolution," using the USG as a convenient
foil as needed to bolster domestic political support. The
opposition's negotiation strategy has yielded significant
dividends, and Morales is looking for new ways to be seen as
a sympathetic figure, especially among his base. We believe
Morales' comments preemptively blaming the U.S. Embassy
'should anything happen to him, the vice president, or any of
his ministers' to be not only irresponsible, but potentially
a very real security threat to the Mission. We are drafting
a diplomatic note to that effect, to be delivered after the
Summit of the Americas. In the longer-term, our contacts say
the MAS is still heavily favored in the December elections,
as voting by Bolivians living abroad favors the MAS and is
open to manipulation, despite the updated electoral roll. We
will continue to monitor any final election law compromise
and the impacts on December elections. End comment.
URS