STARVING DEMOCRACY: ELECTORAL LAW IMPASSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000557

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ENVR ASEC BL
SUBJECT: STARVING DEMOCRACY: ELECTORAL LAW IMPASSE

REF: LA PAZ 496

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: As of 2:00pm April 9, President Evo Morales
and his ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party has been
unable to break a legislative deadlock with the opposition
over passage of the constitutionally-mandated Electoral
Transition Law (ETL),which will govern all aspects of
upcoming national elections (reftel). In response, Morales
and leaders of MAS-affiliated social groups have declared an
indefinite hunger strike to demand approval of the law.
Marathon negotiation sessions have yielded agreement on
several core issues, but "non-negotiable" opposition demands
for a completely new electoral roll have led to an impasse.
Embassy sources say the opposition has realized it will lose
the election in dramatic fashion without a radically
different law and has adopted an "all or nothing" approach.
While there are rumors Morales will use the opposition's
intransigence to close Congress and move elections forward,
nothing is certain at this point. End summary.

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Background
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2. (C) The new Bolivian constitution required Congressional
passage by April 8 of a "transitional regime" to establish
the rules for the December 6 election of the president, vice
president, and members of the new "Plurinational Assembly."
While both the lower house of Congress and the Senate passed
significantly different versions of an Electoral Transition
Law (ETL) by the deadline, they have not been able to
reconcile the versions in Congress-wide negotiations.
Although the ruling MAS party has an overall majority in the
Congress, parliamentary rules require that both the lower
house and the Senate reach quorums before voting on the
reconciled bill can occur. The opposition-controlled Senate
has refused to form a quorum, and has remained unified in the
face of MAS attempts to recruit two opposition Senators to
their side in order to force a vote.


3. (C) According to opposition analysts, the MAS version of
the ETL included several elements designed to effectively
guarantee a two-thirds majority in the new Plurinational
Assembly (reftel),and with it the ability to modify the
constitution at will. As a result, opposition senators, led
by Senate President Oscar Ortiz, have taken an "all or
nothing" approach in reconciliation negotiations, demanding
fundamental changes in the legislation.

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Negotiations Stalled
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4. (C) Sources inside the negotiations reported the MAS was
prepared to give in to opposition demands on almost all
fronts in order to get the law passed. A MAS proposal at
dawn April 9 apparently included a reduction in the number of
indigenous seats from 14 to eight, elimination of vetting
requirements in the indigenous districts, a new electoral
roll with biometric features for Bolivians living abroad, and
a review of up to 30 percent of the domestic electoral roll.
However, deep opposition suspicion of the electoral rolls led
Senate President Ortiz to reject the deal. The opposition
has called its demand for a completely new electoral roll
"non-negotiable."


5. (U) In response, several media outlets reported that a
massive walk-out by MAS representatives, followed by a siege
by MAS-affiliated social groups and calls for the closure of
Congress, was imminent. However, at this time none of these
steps has materialized. Instead, President Morales announced
he and members of MAS-affiliated labor and social groups
would go on a hunger strike, "in defense of all those who
approved the constitution" in a January 25 referendum and to
call attention to the "anti-democratic" opposition. (Note:
Morales was not the first to call a hunger strike.
Opposition presidential candidate Rene Joaquino and members
of his Social Alliance party began a hunger strike against
the MAS legislation a day earlier, leading to dueling hunger
strikes. In addition, Morales is not the first Bolivian
president to go on a hunger strike. Presidents Siles Zuazo
and Mesa also attempted to build public sympathies through
hunger strikes, neither of which was successful. End note.)

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Whither the Siege?
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6. (C) While many expected a massive march and subsequent
siege of Congress, some sources have told us the MAS somewhat
surprisingly had neither the money, leadership, nor popular
support necessary for such a march. In the past, Santos
Ramirez would have organized such a protest or siege on
Congress, but he has been expelled from the MAS. In
addition, after word leaked that the MAS was ready to
sacrifice the indigenous districts, many members of social
groups felt betrayed and refused to march. Other sources
disagree, noting the MAS is expert in organizing protests.
They assert instead that Morales assessed that a march at
this time would appear undemocratic and actually undermine
his support.

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Comment
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7. (C) With their backs collectively to the wall, and
memories of how their October 21 compromise on the new
constitution's text came back to haunt them, the opposition
has held firm in negotiations over the election law and
forced a stalemate in negotiations. Instead of cooperating
in the passage of a law that would spell their downfall, the
opposition has essentially dared Morales to call elections by
supreme decree. While Morales instead opted for a hunger
strike to build public and international support for the MAS,
no one doubts Morales has given up his other options. Still,
with the predominantly catholic country coming to a
standstill for Easter weekend, pressure is on for Morales to
either strike a deal, coax (or buy) opposition votes, or
close Congress and call for early elections. Post will
continue to monitor the situation.
URS