Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09LAPAZ496
2009-03-31 17:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

MAS TRIES TO STACK THE DECK FOR DECEMBER ELECTIONS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ENVR ASEC BL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #0496/01 0901755
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 311755Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0445
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 8914
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 6289
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0263
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 7474
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 4520
RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 0435
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 4854
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6216
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 7135
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1903
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 1734
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000496 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ENVR ASEC BL
SUBJECT: MAS TRIES TO STACK THE DECK FOR DECEMBER ELECTIONS

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b, d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000496

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ENVR ASEC BL
SUBJECT: MAS TRIES TO STACK THE DECK FOR DECEMBER ELECTIONS

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: The new Bolivian constitution requires
Congressional passage by April 7 of a "transitional regime"
to establish the rules for the December 6 election of the
president, vice president, and members of the new
"Plurinational Assembly." Under threat of a 10,000-person
siege by social groups affiliated with the Morales
administration, the Bolivian Senate will vote soon on draft
legislation. The proposed Electoral Transition Law (ETL)
controls all aspects of the elections, including the number,
location, and size of regular Congressional districts,
special indigenous districts, voting by Bolivian citizens
abroad, division of Senate seats, and the potential
establishment of a new electoral roll. In the lower house of
Congress, President Morales' ruling Movement Toward Socialism
party (MAS) passed a version of the ETL that stacks the deck
in their favor, significantly boosting their chances to win a
two-thirds majority in the new Plurinational Assembly, and
with it the ability to amend the constitution at will. While
the Senate is poised to modify the lower house's legislation
significantly, whatever it passes will likely be overruled in
a meeting of the full Congress, handing the MAS a major
victory and giving it the potential to perpetuate itself in
power for years to come. End summary.

- - - - - - - - - -
MAS Stacks the Deck
- - - - - - - - - -


2. (SBU) With President Morales promising as part of his
regular stump speech that the MAS will win more than 70
percent of the Plurinational Assembly seats in the December 6
elections, pressure is on the MAS to create an Electoral
Transition Law (ETL) that adjusts the rules in their favor.
The MAS-controlled lower house of Congress has done its part,
passing a law that contains at least six features designed to
advantage the MAS.


3. (SBU) First, the MAS proposal essentially guarantees that
all so-called "indigenous seats" will be MAS seats. The MAS
version of the ETL establishes that 14 of the lower house's

130 seats will be set aside for indigenous representation,
and mandates that all candidates for these seats be approved
by MAS-affiliated social groups CIDOB, CONAMAQ, or CSUTCB
(Confederation of Eastern Bolivian Indigenous Communities,
National Council of Allyus and Markas of Qullasuyu, and the
Unique Confederation of Rural Laborers of Bolivia,
respectively). The opposition has complained that this
vetting requirement effectively guarantees that MAS
candidates will win all 14 seats, and that it arbitrarily
denies some citizens living in these areas the right to run
for elected office.


4. (SBU) Second, the proposed law would deliver more Senate
seats to the MAS. With four Senate seats now at stake in
each department (state),calculating how to award seats could
mean the difference in who controls the Senate and also help
the MAS achieve an overall two-thirds majority in the
Plurinational Assembly. The MAS favors the d'Hondt method,
which divides seats in approximate proportion to the number
of votes won by each party and has a bias toward larger
parties. The opposition favors either the Saint Lague method
(which favors minority parties) or a simpler formula of two
seats to the winner, and one each to the next two parties,
assuming the third place party reaches a five percent
minimum. Especially in the western departments, by using the
d'Hondt method the MAS could win three out of four seats.


5. (SBU) Third, the MAS draft over-represents rural areas and
the Altiplano, where the MAS vote is strongest. According to
the MAS ETL draft, the three Altiplano departments of La Paz,
Oruro, and Potosi receive 52 seats, while the other six
combined receive only 78 seats. And while rural areas
comprise only one-third of the country's population, they
would receive two-thirds of the lower house seats, giving the
MAS a clear advantage.


6. (SBU) Fourth, the MAS version of the ETL ignores the
ongoing Santa Cruz population boom. By using the 2001
census, the MAS version of the law would ignore the
significant growth of Santa Cruz over the last decade
(largely due to immigration from the Altiplano). For
example, many experts believe Potosi and Oruro departments
should lose three seats, which should be awarded to Santa
Cruz department, a potential swing of six votes.


7. (SBU) Fifth, the MAS version of the ETL violates the
constitution's proportionality requirements. The
constitution requires that half of the lower house's 130
seats be elected directly (i.e. one votes for a specific
candidate) and half by party list. The MAS has decided to
count the indigenous seats as party list seats, even though
voters in these districts will be choosing individual
candidates, leading to 70 direct vote seats, 46 party list
seats, and 14 indigenous seats. In Potosi (a MAS
stronghold),the MAS has directly contradicted the
constitution by creating eight direct vote seats and only six
party list seats (and no indigenous seats). Noting that the
lower house's party list seats will also be distributed
according to the d'Hondt method, some experts have speculated
the MAS carved out the 14 indigenous districts from areas
that might not otherwise be fertile MAS territory, leaving
the other 46 to be decided by a method (d'Hondt) relatively
biased toward larger parties (i.e. the MAS).


8. (SBU) Last, the MAS draft legislation would allow "some"
Bolivians living abroad to vote in December. Currently,
Bolivians living abroad are not allowed to vote. The MAS
proposal would "phase in" such voting, and in the December
election would allow only Bolivians living in Argentina to
vote. The opposition has charged that Bolivians living in
Argentina are more likely to vote for the MAS, while those
living in other countries, such as Spain and the U.S., are
more likely to vote for the opposition. The proposed ETL
would therefore benefit the MAS at the expense of the
opposition.

- - - - - - - - - - -
The Senate Fights Back
- - - - - - - - - - -


9. (U) In contrast, the Senate version explicitly sets out to
correct the urban/rural imbalance and determine all districts
strictly by population, including indigenous districts. The
opposition proposal would ask the National Electoral Court
(CNE) to draw districts in each department based solely on
population, with a minimum of five seats per department.
Using this criteria, the CNE would also establish the number
of indigenous districts. According to the 2001 census and a
Senate committee analysis, minority indigenous groups (i.e.
not Aymara or Quechua) make up six percent of the country's
population and would merit perhaps four seats. Candidates
for indigenous seats also would not require approval from
social groups (CIDOB, CONAMAQ, or CSUTCB).


10. (U) The Senate draft requires that the CNE completely
redo the electoral rolls before the December elections, and
requires that the CNE generate a proposal to allow voting by
Bolivians outside the country. This proposal would have to
be approved by the Congress before it could be activated, and
would likely not be approved before the December 6 elections.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Next Step: Full Congress Vote
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


11. (U) The Senate is likely to approve their Constitution
Committee's proposal in the next few days. Senate President
Oscar Ortiz has said he is "not concerned" with the impending
siege by MAS-affiliated social groups and that the Senate is
committed to passing a transition law before the deadline.
Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera said March 29 that he
also was against any siege and hoped instead that the Senate
would "fulfill its duty" by expeditiously passing the
transition law.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Comment: Senate Actions Moot?
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


12. (C) Senate President Ortiz confirmed to Emboff that
after the Senate passes its version of the Electoral
Transition Law, it will be sent to the lower house for
review. Given the significant differences between the two
drafts, the lower house is not likely to pass the Senate
version. Instead, Vice President Garcia Linera will likely
convoke the full Congress to vote on a reconciled version of
the two drafts. According to Ortiz, any vote by the full
Congress would require only a simple majority to pass the
legislation. Garcia Linera's opposition to the social
groups' siege may exist because he has counted the votes, and
knows the MAS can pass whatever text they prefer. While the
opposition may be able to modify elements of the MAS
proposal, in the end the MAS has 84 out of a total 157 votes,
or well more than half. If it comes to a straight party
vote, the MAS can impose its will. In doing so, the MAS will
have rewritten the "rules of the game" and be much closer
toward its goal of a two-thirds majority in the Plurinational
Assembly. End comment.
URS