BOLIVIA: NEW CONSTITUTION, NEW CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000220

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR ENVR BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: NEW CONSTITUTION, NEW CABINET

REF: A. 08 LA PAZ 2150

B. 08 LA PAZ 2567

C. LA PAZ 163

D. LA PAZ 176

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Leveraging his now certified victory in the
January 25 constitutional referendum, President Evo Morales
held a massive "party" February 7 to promulgate the
constitution and herald the arrival of the new "community
socialist" revolution. The next day, Morales announced the
results of a much-rumored cabinet reshuffle with few
significant changes; three of twenty ministries will be led
by self-identified indigenous officials. Indigenous and
social groups had demanded greater executive branch
representation and the removal of Presidency Minister Juan
Ramon Quintana; Morales gave them neither. Morales' actions,
or lack thereof, indicate his confidence that for the
indigenous and social groups, the MAS is the only game in
town. End summary.

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The Results Are In: It's Party Time...
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2. (U) The National Electoral Court (CNE) announced official
results February 2 for the January 25 constitutional
referendum, certifying its passage with 61.4 percent of the
vote. The CNE also confirmed just over 90 percent of
eligible voters participated, a record (and seven points
higher than the turnout for the August 2008 referendum). The
official results showed 80.7 percent of voters supported a
land limit of 5,000 hectares.

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A Long-Expected Party
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3. (U) Beginning at noon February 7, President Evo Morales
hosted a large gathering in El Alto, attended by the social
organizations, unions, leftist political groups, and
indigenous campesinos (rural farmers) that make up his
political base. Originally forecast to include a crowd of up
to 500,000 people, official news reports later put the figure
at "dozens of thousands of people." Before signing the
constitution and asking the crowd to swear to obey and defend
the new text, Morales gave a speech in which he called the
constitution the culmination of 180 years of protest by rural
social groups against colonial masters of all stripes,
whether earlier Spanish invaders or "neoliberals and
imperialists" such as the United States.


4. (U) Morales cited the United States at least three times
in his speech, noting his expulsion of Ambassador Goldberg, a
supposed requirement in the past to "ask permission of the
U.S." to fly into the Chimore (which Morales said he ended)
(reftel A),and more generally the ongoing fight against the
dominion of the United States as a de facto imperial power.
He did not make any specific proposals regarding the US
presence in Bolivia or about bilateral relations. Morales
repeated his popular promise that "thanks to the new
constitution, there would not be foreign military bases in
Bolivia." (Note: the USG has never had a military base in
Bolivia. End note.) Morales repeated, without proof, his
charge that there were regular death threats against him, but
said that now, with the passage of the new constitution, he
could die fulfilled as his mission was accomplished. (Note:
Although he did not specify any USG involvement in death
threats this time, Morales has recently and repeatedly
referred to supposed USG plots to kill him (Reftel C). End
note.)


5. (U) Morales received his biggest cheer when he said
corruption issues were part of the country's "colonial past,"
and that anyone who persisted in corruption would be thrown
in jail, regardless of party affiliation. (Note: Morales
fired close confidant and state hydrocarbons company YPFB
President Santos Ramirez February 1 after he was implicated
in a $450,000 kickback and murder scandal (Reftel D). End
note.)


6. (U) Morales veered between taunting the opposition and
calling on them to unite "for the good of the country."
Recalling how legendary rebel leader Tupac Katari was drawn
and quartered in 1781, Morales said he would never allow four
prefects (governors) to divide the country in the same way.
Signaling confidence in his party's continued dominance,
Morales predicted his Movement Toward Socialism party (MAS)
would win the upcoming December elections with over 70
percent of the vote.


7. (U) Regarding the requirement that all government
officials speak at least one native language, Morales said
this transition would happen "little by little." (Note:
Morales is not fluent in any native language. End note.)

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Cabinet Almost Unchanged
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8. (U) Article 175 of the new constitution alters the
responsibilities of the executive branch and requires passage
of a new Executive Branch Law (LOPE) to update its structure.
As part of this process, President Morales announced
February 8 a restructuring of his administration. However,
defying both rumors in the local press and requests from many
of the social organizations that make up his political base,
Morales kept his main circle of advisors completely intact,
including Presidency Minister Juan Ramon Quintana, Minister
of the Government Alfredo Rada, Foreign Minister David
Choquehuanca, and Defense Minister Walker San Miguel.
Morales increased the total number of ministries from 17 to
20, adding newly formed ministries of Decentralization and
Autonomies (led by Carlos Romero),Transparency and
Anti-Corruption (Nardi Suxo),and Culture (Pablo Groux).
Both Suxo and Groux led these efforts previously, when they
were classified as vice-ministries. Romero led the Rural
Development Ministry previously. Many indigenous and social
groups had called for Quintana's ouster, particularly after
his implication in a contraband scandal in Pando (reftel B),
but despite Morales' tough talk on anti-corruption, Quintanta
will remain a key advisor.


9. (U) Other than the addition of three new ministries, the
cabinet remains practically unchanged. Morales ousted only
one former minister, Saul Avalos, for his connection with the
YPFB corruption scandal, added only two new ministers, and
rotated a handful of other positions (see list below).
Otherwise, any predictions of a major shuffle, including
increased presence of indigenous members or of the social
organizations that form the base of Morales' support, were
proved wrong. Only three of the twenty ministries will be
led by representatives of indigenous communities, and only
one of the three, Julia Ramos (Rural Land Development),is
new. Other indigenous representatives include Foreign
Minister Choquehuanca and Justice Minister Celima Torrico.
Director of the Confederation of Indigenous Villages in
Eastern Bolivia (CIDOB) Adolfo Chavez complained that "one
way or another, we are being excluded." Similarly, Director
of the National Coordination for Change (Conalcam) Fidel
Surco, said the Culture Ministry was supposed to represent
the social movements, but instead it went to a member of the
moderate MSM party (Movement Without Fear),a local La Paz
MAS ally.


10. (U) The new cabinet is comprised of the following members
(changes indicated in parentheses):
-- Foreign Relations: David Choquehuanca
-- Presidency: Juan Ramon Quintana
-- Government: Alfredo Rada
-- Defense: Walker San Miguel
-- Justice: Celima Torrico
-- Development Planning: Noel Aguirre
-- Finance: Luis Arce
-- Environment and Water: Rene Orellana (was Vice-Minister in
this capacity)
-- Productive Development: Susana Rivero
-- Public Works: Walter Delgadillo (was Labor Minister)
-- Rural Development and Lands: Julia Ramos (New)
-- Hydrocarbons and Energy: Oscar Coca (was Public Works
Minister)
-- Mining and Metallurgy: Luis Alberto Echazu
-- Labor and Employment: Calixto Chipana (New)
-- Education: Roberto Aguilar
-- Health and Sports: Ramiro Tapia
-- Legal Defense of the State: Hector Arce
-- Decentralization and Autonomy: Carlos Romero (was
Agriculture Minister)
-- Culture: Pablo Groux (was Vice-Minister in this capacity)
-- Anti-Corruption: Nardi Suxo (was Vice-Minister in this
capacity)

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Comment
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11. (C) Between his promise that the MAS would win above 70
percent in the December elections and a lack of any dramatic
gesture to social and indigenous leaders in the cabinet
reshuffle, Morales appears to be flush with the success of
passing the new constitution and does not seem to feel he is
beholden to anyone. Although our contacts tell us opposition
to the MAS is growing in the Altiplano and the opposition
trumpets the worsening economy as his Achilles' heel, Morales
seems to have decided to stay the course. Unless the
opposition can unite around a single candidate, and one that
draws support from the MAS, Morales is probably correct in
believing that his political base has nowhere else to go.
URS