LATEST PODEMOS MAGIC BULLET: NAVA TO TURN ON EVO

S E C R E T LA PAZ 000178

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR BL VE
SUBJECT: LATEST PODEMOS MAGIC BULLET: NAVA TO TURN ON EVO

REF: A. LA PAZ 94

B. 08 LA PAZ 2567

C. 08 LA PAZ 1720

D. 08 LA PAZ 1411

E. 07 LA PAZ 3078

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (S) Opposition strategist Javier Flores (strictly protect)
told PolOff February 1 that Bolivian Army Lt. Jorge Nava is
working with Flores and opposition Senator Roger Pinto
(Podemos, Pando) to discredit the government's denial of
involvement in the June 21 bombing of an opposition
television station in Tarija Department (state). Nava was
caught fleeing the scene and is under investigation for his
role in the bombing, but has not yet cooperated with either
Bolivian prosecutors or a separate Senate investigation
(reftel d). Flores said Nava's father and attorney
originally approached him late in January complaining that
Minister of the Presidency Juan Ramon Quintana has not
followed through on promises to provide Nava with money,
protection, and passage to either Cuba or Venezuela (Note:
Other contacts had told us the government planned to assign
Nava to the Bolivian attache' office in Caracas. End Note.)
Flores said Nava's disgruntled father claimed he had a long
argument with Quintana about the government "using" his son
as a pawn without proper respect for the "hell he is going
through."


2. (S) Flores claimed Nava showed him a "library" of
recordings he had collected from cell phone conversations
with Venezuelan Mission personnel, Presidential Palace staff
up to and including Quintana, Defense Minister Walker San
Miguel, and President Evo Morales. Flores claimed the
Morales recording he heard only "implied knowledge" of Nava's
attack. He opined the recordings would be a "hard blow"
against the government when released within the next two to
three weeks. (Comment: We are more skeptical. The generally
muted public reaction to proof that the Venezuelan Embassy
had rented the vehicle Nava used in an act of domestic
terrorism provides a precedent: outrage from the opposition
and shoulder shrugs from MAS sympathizers. End Comment.)


3. (S) Flores also claimed Nava had recordings linking the
government to the November 2007 deaths of three opposition
protesters in Sucre (reftel e),which also involved Nava.
Flores claimed he and Pinto had come to an "understanding"
with Nava to "help him get out of the country" before the
recordings would be released by the Senate investigation of
the bombing. Although Flores said a number of countries were
being considered for Nava, Flores suggested that Peru or
Colombia were the easiest options.

Other Magic Bullet Developments
--------------


4. (S) Flores said a conversation between Pando City
Councilman Miguel "Chiquitin" Becerra and alleged would-be
Pinto assassin Blusher Alpire, proving a relationship between
the two (which Becerra denies),would also be released
shortly (ref a). Although they had originally planned to
release it in January, they wanted to make sure Alpire was
"safe" before releasing new information in the case. (Note:
PolOff heard the Becerra/Alpire recording and it does seem to
establish a familiar relationship. End Note.)

Comment
--------------


5. (S) A public Nava turn against the government would be
front-page news and elicit increased scrutiny of an already
unpopular Venezuelan Mission (reftel c). However, we doubt
the evidence Nava has would directly link Morales to knowing
complicity in the crime. If all Nava has to offer is more
proof of Venezuelan involvement, or even some new proof of
Quintana's involvement, we doubt the confession will have a
significant impact on domestic politics. The linking of
Quintana in contraband, September violence and subterfuge in
Pando, and a murder plot against Pinto have seemed to bounce
off of Teflon Juan (reftels a and b) and we do not expect a
different result if Nava links Quintana directly to the
Tarija bombing, especially since many already assume this is
the case. Flores and his mostly-Podemos group keep looking
for a magic bullet confessional to use against the
government, but the government's core supporters do not seem
to believe in or care much about such charges. End Comment.
URS