BOLIVIA: ELECTION MONITORS CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001577

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/01
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: ELECTION MONITORS CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC

REF: 09 LA PAZ 131; 09 LA PAZ 115

DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D



1. (C) Summary: In meetings on November 24 and 25 with
representatives from the OAS, European Union, and Carter Center
electoral observation missions, all told us they were prepared for
the December 6 elections and identified potential pitfalls,
including the practice of "public voting," inappropriate use of
public funds in campaigning, fraud allegations, and the pending
"conditional" status of several hundred thousand voters. Despite
these issues, each group praised the work of the National Electoral
Court (CNE) and assessed that the elections would be found "free
and fair." End summary.

OAS, EU, Carter Center Missions Prepared


2. (C) Charge and Embassy officers met separately with OAS Election
Observation Mission Deputy Director Rebecca OmaC1a, European Union
(EU) Chief of Election Observation Mission Renate Weber, and Carter
Center Regional Deputy Director Santiago Mariani on November 24 and
25 to discuss their preparations for the upcoming December 6
national elections.


3. (C) OmaC1a said the OAS would place approximately 125 observers
in all nine departments, including rural and urban areas. The
observers would come from 16 OAS countries and two observer
countries, including 10 observers from the United States. She
noted the number of U.S. team members was "up" compared with the
January constitutional referendum, "when the situation between
Bolivia and the U.S. was tenser." OmaC1a observed both the August
2008 recall referendum and the January constitutional referendum,
and predicted that past denunciations of "public voting" (Reftel B)
and voter fraud would likely surface again. Public voting refers
both to a traditional practice of collective vote casting based on
community consensus and also to a newer practice in which votes are
obtained through payments or threats. To better understand the
character and extent of public voting -- and whether it is more of
a "cultural" or a "coercive" practice -- OmaC1a said the OAS would
station observers in areas where voter turnout in the past had
reached 100 percent or where 100 percent had voted for President
Morales. She also voiced concern over potential violence as well
as the misuse of public funds by both sides.


4. (C) OmaC1a said her team had had met with opposition presidential
candidate Samuel Doria Medina, a representative of opposition
presidential candidate Manfred Reyes Villa, and other opposition
electoral experts to discuss potential fraud issues. All had
raised fraud concerns but none submitted formal accusations or
provided evidence of such activities. (Note: The media reported on
December 1 that Reyes Villa's campaign claims to have "proof" that
each of the 174 registration stations used to construct the
biometric register was "pre-loaded" with 3000 false names, or
522,000 fake voters in total. End note.) OmaC1a expressed her
admiration for the National Electoral Court's (CNE) performance in
quickly constructing the new biometric electoral register, saying
opinion polls now showed much greater public confidence in the
electoral register. She said her team was monitoring the ongoing
issue of the 400,000 voters placed in "conditional" status by the
CNE (see below for discussion),but that she believed it would not
put the election's result in doubt.


5. (C) In a separate meeting with the Charge on November 25, EU
Electoral Observation Mission Chief Renate Weber echoed some of
OmaC1a's concerns while remaining positive overall regarding the
prospect of "free and fair" elections. Weber led the EU's
observation of the January constitutional referendum and was more
critical in her final report than either the OAS or Carter Center
(Reftel A). She praised the CNE's work on the electoral register
and on election preparations generally. Weber said her team is
monitoring Bolivian radio, TV, and press to assess their election
coverage, adding that most of the Bolivian press is notoriously
partisan. She also voiced concern about politicization of the
judiciary, noting the proliferation of criminal investigations of

Reyes Villa since the campaign's start. In a press conference on
November 26, Weber called for greater transparency in Bolivia's
campaign financing system, decrying the lack of regulations in this
area.


6. (C) Weber said the EU's electoral mission had 130 members,
including a core team of nine experts that had been in Bolivia
since October 26, 34 long-term observers that had been stationed
for three weeks, and an additional 76 short-term observers that
would arrive within the week. The long-term observer team will
remain into January, with a final report to be published in
February 2010. Weber added that she would give a personal report on
December 8. She said some officers from European embassies in La
Paz would be accredited through the EU mission, and that seven
members of the European Parliament would also come to observe the
election.


7. (C) Carter Center Deputy Director Santiago Mariani told the
Charge on November 24 that the Center would also observe the
December 6 elections, but noted that they had focused their
resources on observing the voter registration process. He said the
Carter Center would publish a preliminary report on the
registration process before the elections, and that the tone of the
report would be positive. Like OAS Deputy Director OmaC1a, Mariani
was effusive in his praise for the CNE, saying their work had
restored popular confidence in the CNE and had reasserted the
institution's independence.


8. (C) For the elections, Mariani said the Carter Center has three
two-person teams of long-term observers in Cochabamba, Santa Cruz,
and Chuquisaca. An additional seven to nine short-term observers
will arrive just before the elections. He believed most of the
short-term observers would be located in La Paz, but added that
they would try to coordinate with the OAS and EU efforts to
maximize coverage.


9. (C) Mariani stated that he was struck by the imbalance in
campaign funding between the ruling MAS party and the opposition.
Mariani noted that in a visit to heavily-contested Pando, he saw
approximately 150 people busily working in the MAS election
headquarters and only two people in Manfred Reyes Villa's center.

"Conditional" Voters No Longer Threat


10. (SBU) Despite their unanimous praise for the CNE's
accomplishments, all three voiced concern regarding the CNE's
announcement that 400,671 registered voters were in danger of being
removed from the electoral register. On November 24, just eleven
days before elections, CNE President Antonio Costas announced that
out of the 5.2 million registered voters (some two million more
than existed on the previous electoral roll),over 400,000 names
did not appear to have a corresponding birth certificate in the
civil registry. Costas said these voters would have until December
3 to appear at a district electoral court with their birth
certificate or they would be taken off the rolls.


11. (U) Costas' statement set off a political firestorm. Defense
Minister Walker San Miguel threatened legal action against the CNE
for preventing citizens -- in their opinion likely poorer people in
rural areas (i.e. members of the MAS base) -- from exercising their
constitutional right to vote. The opposition, led by Congresswoman
Ninoska Lazarte, called for the immediate removal of all of the
"conditional" voters, claiming the CNE's database check had merely
identified the part of the old voter roll that the government had
fraudulently inflated (i.e. by issuing identity cards without
proof, potentially to foreigners) to increase support for the MAS.



12. (C) None of the electoral mission representatives said the
issue of the conditional voters would significantly change the
outcome of the elections. On November 30, local media reported
that well over 200,000 of the voters already had been restored to
the rolls. While many people presented their birth certificates,

the CNE also restored all persons born before 1940 and thousands of
women who were mistakenly included when their married names did not
agree with the name on their birth certificate. The MAS quickly
announced they would not take legal action against the CNE. In
contrast, both opposition candidates continued to demand immediate
removal of all 400,000. The Carter Center told us the error
reflected weaknesses in the GOB bureaucracy, not fraud or
malfeasance by either the CNE or the government. The quick
restoration of more than half of the voters makes it even less
likely the issue will affect the validity of the elections.

Comment


13. (C) Despite the good efforts of the CNE and the election
monitoring missions, there will almost certainly be accusations of
fraud, coerced voting, and other irregularities soon after election
results are announced. Still, we do not believe such occurrences
will greatly affect the election results, as most polls show
Morales and his ruling MAS party ahead by a wide a margin. We will
remain in close contact with the various observation missions as
the election unfolds.
Creamer