BOLIVIAN FM ON BILATERAL AGREEMENT, UNGA, ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001557

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/19
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNGA BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIAN FM ON BILATERAL AGREEMENT, UNGA, ELECTIONS

CLASSIFIED BY: William Mozdzierz, Political Counselor, State,
POL/ECON; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: Bolivian FM Choquehuanca reported that the GOB now
hopes to be able to give final approval to the bilateral framework
agreement after the December 6 general elections here, with the aim
of hosting a signing ceremony in La Paz before Christmas.
Choquehuanca heard our message on the UNGA human rights resolutions
on Iran, Burma and North Korea, but offered no substantive
response. He explained that GOB attendance at the Copenhagen
climate summit now depends on what can be agreed with Bolivia's
ALBA allies. Choquehuanca predicted that President Morales will be
re-elected with 65 percent of the vote, but that his MAS party's
goal of a two-thirds majority in parliament remains uncertain. End
summary.




2. (C) Bolivian Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca explained to
the Charge November 18 that the GOB is still reviewing the draft
bilateral framework agreement text, noting that the ongoing
election campaign has prevented President Evo Morales from giving
it his full attention and that the GOB is waiting for final
language from us on trade in any case. Choquehuanca lamented that
the agreement will not be ready for signature before the December 6
general elections (joking that it could have helped Morales's MAS
party with some voters),but indicated that the GOB would give
final approval immediately after the election. This would give
time to work out any last-minute changes and hold a signing
ceremony in La Paz before Christmas. The Charge responded that
this timetable could work for us, reporting that we hoped to
provide the GOB with trade language the following week.
Choquehuanca noted that slippage beyond December 25 could lead to
lengthy delays given expected cabinet changes and the GOB's focus
on the January 22 inauguration (Choquehuanca indicated that he
still hoped to step down as foreign minister after the elections,
but was not certain that he would do so in the end).




3. (C) The Charge raised reftel points on the UNGA resolutions on
Iran, Burma and North Korea, following up on our delivery of those
points via diplomatic note the previous week. The Charge urged the
GOB to at least abstain on the no-action motions and the
resolutions themselves, underscoring that the human rights
situation in Iran has deteriorated sharply since the June
elections. Choquehuanca listened to our approach, but did not
respond. He reported frustration that Iranian President
Ahmadinejad 's upcoming visit to La Paz had rescheduled by the
Iranians; the Iranian president will now arrive either November 23
or 24.




4. (C) Choquehuanca said that the GOB is rethinking whether Morales
and he will travel to Copenhagen for the UN COP-15 climate change
meeting. He indicated that they will decide based on what is
agreed among fellow ALBA members at their December 14-15 summit in
Havana (the original plan had been for the ALBA leaders to go as a
group to Copenhagen, but Choquehuanca allowed that it is possible
that not even he will attend).




5. (C) The foreign minister acknowledged that he is spending a
great deal of time on the electoral campaign, reflecting his own
affinity for politics over foreign policy. Choquehuanca predicted
that Morales will win 65 percent of the vote (he currently polls
slightly below that figure; Choquehuanca suggested that Morales's
rural support is underrepresented in those surveys),but remains
uncertain that the MAS will win a two-thirds majority in the
Senate. He observed whether the MAS's goal of a two-thirds
majority is only reachable because of the opposition's failure to
unite.




6. (C) The Charge expressed support to Choquehuanca for the GOB's
request to have the UNODC upgrade its La Paz office, noting the
critical role it could play in improving counter-narcotics

cooperation. Choquehuanca indicated that GOB welcomes the proposed
counter-narcotics donors conference, but shares our skepticism that
a successful event can be arranged as early as January. The
Charge informed Choquehuanca that we cannot meet the GOB's proposed
conditions to finish our justice center and municipal strengthening
programs and that we will therefore close them down by November 25.
The Charge stressed that we would consider the GOB's proposals for
future projects, especially once we concluded the framework
agreement. Choquehuanca listened, but did not react.
Creamer