Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09LAPAZ1538
2009-11-09 12:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:
MORALES MAINTAINS COMMANDING LEAD
VZCZCXYZ0000 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHLP #1538/01 3131236 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 091236Z NOV 09 FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1947 INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 0081 RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 6641 RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0600 RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 7806 RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 4851 RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0016 RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 0007 RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 0082 RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0081 RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 1891 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001538
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR BL
SUBJECT: MORALES MAINTAINS COMMANDING LEAD
REF: LA PAZ 1425
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires John Creamer for reasons 1.4 (b, d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001538
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR BL
SUBJECT: MORALES MAINTAINS COMMANDING LEAD
REF: LA PAZ 1425
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires John Creamer for reasons 1.4 (b, d)
1. (C) Summary: With one month left before the December 6
national elections, President Morales and his ruling Movement
Toward Socialism party (MAS) remain poised to retain the
presidency and take control over both houses of the
Plurinational Assembly (Congress). Public and private
polling indicate that primary opposition challenger Manfred
Reyes Villa remains unlikely to present a challenge to
Morales, who should win easily in the first round of voting.
The MAS is primed to keep control of the House of Deputies
and to wrest control of the Senate from the opposition by a
significant margin. Morales has increased his public calls
for a two-thirds majority in both the House of Deputies and
the Senate, and it would take a major shift in current voting
trends to deny the MAS this goal. End summary.
Morales Outpacing Reyes Villa
--------------
2. (U) Recent polling, both public and private, show
President Morales retaining his lead over the two main
opposition challengers, Manfred Reyes Villa and Samuel Doria
Medina. A publicly-released Ipsos Apoyo poll shows Morales
national lead shrinking slightly from September to October,
from 54 to 52 percent, while both Reyes Villa and Doria
Medina have moved up, from 20 to 21 percent and 11 to 13
percent, respectively. With just one month to go before
elections, however, Reyes Villa would need to effect an
extremely unlikely 22 point swing to force a second round
runoff with Morales.
3. (C) Private nationwide polling done by both Stanley
Greenberg's and Dick Morris' firms agree that Morales has a
commanding lead. The October 27 Greenberg poll indicates
Morales leading Reyes Villa 56 to 26 percent. Further, the
poll shows satisfaction with the country's overall direction
has increased to 43 percent, up from 28 percent less than six
months ago, and Morales' favorability rating at 50 percent
(up five points in two months). While the Greenberg poll
shows Reyes Villa's image has improved slightly, it is up to
only 23 percent, and he carries a 56 percent unfavorable
rating. (Doria Medina's unfavorability rating is similarly
high, at 55 percent.)
4. (C) Even the Dick Morris poll, commissioned by a regional
opposition group partial to Reyes Villa, shows Morales at 47
percent and Reyes Villa at 28 percent. Despite this lead,
Morris calls the election "a race we can win," recommending a
negative campaign that attacks Morales on crime,
narcotrafficking, police corruption, and Morales'
relationship with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The
Greenberg poll finds many of the same weaknesses, but
concludes that even these weaknesses would be difficult to
capitalize on. Both agree that third-place challenger Doria
Medina's job-creation strategy will find little purchase, as
54 percent of the country feels their economic situation has
improved over the last four years and 61 percent believe job
creation to be one of Morales' major achievements (according
to the Greenberg poll).
MAS Taking the Fight into Opposition Strongholds
-------------- ---
5. (U) While the opposition casts about for a winning
strategy, Morales and the MAS are making inroads in
opposition territory. The MAS has announced alliances with
former members of Santa Cruz's radical (and sometimes
violent) Cruceno Youth Union, former allies of Santa Cruz
Prefect Ruben Costas, and some Santa Cruz business leaders.
Morales has also been lauded for reaching out to the middle
class through his nomination of Ana Maria Campero, a
well-respected former national Ombudswoman, for Senator of La
Paz department. Polls do not yet show a MAS gain in Santa
Cruz and other opposition departments related to this effort,
but local media have reported heavily on this development in
recent days.
Comment
--------------
6. (C) Despite whatever slim hopes the Reyes Villa campaign
may still hold, it would take an unprecedented turn of events
to force a second round against President Morales, much less
an outright win. Reyes Villa's national campaign manager
resigned recently, citing corruption, inefficiency, and a
lack of a coherent strategy. Nevertheless, Reyes Villa
appears to have consolidated his support in Santa Cruz and
his other core constituencies and could yet hold off a
two-thirds MAS majority. End comment.
CREAMER
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR BL
SUBJECT: MORALES MAINTAINS COMMANDING LEAD
REF: LA PAZ 1425
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires John Creamer for reasons 1.4 (b, d)
1. (C) Summary: With one month left before the December 6
national elections, President Morales and his ruling Movement
Toward Socialism party (MAS) remain poised to retain the
presidency and take control over both houses of the
Plurinational Assembly (Congress). Public and private
polling indicate that primary opposition challenger Manfred
Reyes Villa remains unlikely to present a challenge to
Morales, who should win easily in the first round of voting.
The MAS is primed to keep control of the House of Deputies
and to wrest control of the Senate from the opposition by a
significant margin. Morales has increased his public calls
for a two-thirds majority in both the House of Deputies and
the Senate, and it would take a major shift in current voting
trends to deny the MAS this goal. End summary.
Morales Outpacing Reyes Villa
--------------
2. (U) Recent polling, both public and private, show
President Morales retaining his lead over the two main
opposition challengers, Manfred Reyes Villa and Samuel Doria
Medina. A publicly-released Ipsos Apoyo poll shows Morales
national lead shrinking slightly from September to October,
from 54 to 52 percent, while both Reyes Villa and Doria
Medina have moved up, from 20 to 21 percent and 11 to 13
percent, respectively. With just one month to go before
elections, however, Reyes Villa would need to effect an
extremely unlikely 22 point swing to force a second round
runoff with Morales.
3. (C) Private nationwide polling done by both Stanley
Greenberg's and Dick Morris' firms agree that Morales has a
commanding lead. The October 27 Greenberg poll indicates
Morales leading Reyes Villa 56 to 26 percent. Further, the
poll shows satisfaction with the country's overall direction
has increased to 43 percent, up from 28 percent less than six
months ago, and Morales' favorability rating at 50 percent
(up five points in two months). While the Greenberg poll
shows Reyes Villa's image has improved slightly, it is up to
only 23 percent, and he carries a 56 percent unfavorable
rating. (Doria Medina's unfavorability rating is similarly
high, at 55 percent.)
4. (C) Even the Dick Morris poll, commissioned by a regional
opposition group partial to Reyes Villa, shows Morales at 47
percent and Reyes Villa at 28 percent. Despite this lead,
Morris calls the election "a race we can win," recommending a
negative campaign that attacks Morales on crime,
narcotrafficking, police corruption, and Morales'
relationship with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The
Greenberg poll finds many of the same weaknesses, but
concludes that even these weaknesses would be difficult to
capitalize on. Both agree that third-place challenger Doria
Medina's job-creation strategy will find little purchase, as
54 percent of the country feels their economic situation has
improved over the last four years and 61 percent believe job
creation to be one of Morales' major achievements (according
to the Greenberg poll).
MAS Taking the Fight into Opposition Strongholds
-------------- ---
5. (U) While the opposition casts about for a winning
strategy, Morales and the MAS are making inroads in
opposition territory. The MAS has announced alliances with
former members of Santa Cruz's radical (and sometimes
violent) Cruceno Youth Union, former allies of Santa Cruz
Prefect Ruben Costas, and some Santa Cruz business leaders.
Morales has also been lauded for reaching out to the middle
class through his nomination of Ana Maria Campero, a
well-respected former national Ombudswoman, for Senator of La
Paz department. Polls do not yet show a MAS gain in Santa
Cruz and other opposition departments related to this effort,
but local media have reported heavily on this development in
recent days.
Comment
--------------
6. (C) Despite whatever slim hopes the Reyes Villa campaign
may still hold, it would take an unprecedented turn of events
to force a second round against President Morales, much less
an outright win. Reyes Villa's national campaign manager
resigned recently, citing corruption, inefficiency, and a
lack of a coherent strategy. Nevertheless, Reyes Villa
appears to have consolidated his support in Santa Cruz and
his other core constituencies and could yet hold off a
two-thirds MAS majority. End comment.
CREAMER