POLLS: MAS TO SWEEP, MAY WIN TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001425

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR BL
SUBJECT: POLLS: MAS TO SWEEP, MAY WIN TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY

REF: A. LA PAZ 1359

B. LA PAZ 496

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires John Creamer for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Three recently-published polls -- including
an unreleased, privately-commissioned poll by Stanley
Greenberg's firm -- confirm President Evo Morales and his
ruling Movement Toward Socialism party (MAS) are well
positioned to sweep the December 6 elections. Morales is
favored to win the presidency in the first round, and the MAS
should win a healthy majority in both the House of Deputies
and the Senate, giving them the ability to pass important
constitutional implementing legislation. If Morales'
coattails extend to deputy-level races, the MAS could even
reach an overall two-thirds majority, which would give them
the ability to amend the Constitution if necessary. The
Greenberg poll highlights structural deficiencies in lead
challenger Manfred Reyes Villa's campaign and notes that
second opposition candidate Samuel Doria Medina's image is
worsening. Even if the opposition unites, polling shows it
would not significantly improve its chances of holding on to
the Senate. End summary.

Polls: Morales Wins, MAS Takes Assembly
--------------


2. (C) Three recent polls by Ipsos Apoyo, Equipo Mori, and
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research indicate that President
Morales has a commanding lead in the presidential race over
the divided opposition. Polling also shows that the MAS is
likely to wrest Senate control from the opposition, giving
Morales a clear path to implement his political project (the
transformation or "refounding" of Bolivia on behalf of
indigenous and other socially-disadvantaged groups) for the
first time. However, the polls do not indicate whether the
public will give Morales a two-thirds majority in the overall
Plurinational Assembly (i.e. both houses of Congress
together) and with this the flexibility to amend the
Constitution.


3. (C) Polls do not agree on a likely vote total for
President Morales, but all project that he will win in the
first round of elections. To avoid a second round of voting,
Morales must win more than 50 percent of the vote or take at
least 40 percent of the vote with no other challenger within
10 points of his total. Not all polls show Morales over 50
percent, but they set his lead over main rival Manfred Reyes
Villa at 30 points or more. Some pundits argue that a
Morales win with less than the 54 percent he took in December
2005 would damage the MAS, but the massive gulf between
Morales and his rivals also nixes the possibility of any
opposition claim of a "moral victory."


4. (C) All three polls show the MAS taking the Senate with
either 22 or 23 of the 36 available seats. The D'Hondt
method of awarding seats (reftel B) rewards dominant parties
such as the MAS, and the MAS's lead is strong enough that
even were all three main opposition candidates to unite under
a single banner, they would likely gain only one additional
seat. As it stands, the opposition candidates continue to
insist that they will neither unite nor leave the race. In
any case, there seems to be little chance of preventing a
significant MAS majority in the Senate.


5. (C) All experts agree the MAS will retain lower house
control, but it is difficult to project whether they could
gain enough seats in the lower house to reach an overall
two-thirds majority in the Plurinational Assembly. The
Assembly's lower house is divided into 70 "uninominal" seats
(i.e. direct candidate vote),53 "plurinominal" seats (i.e.
by party list),and seven special/reserved indigenous seats.
According to the Equipos Mori poll, the MAS is projected to
win 31 of the 53 plurinominal seats. Assuming this is
correct, and that the MAS take 23 Senate seats and all seven
of the special indigenous seats, the MAS would then need to
win 49 of the 70 uninominal seats to reach a two-thirds

overall majority. As parties may change their list of
direct-vote candidates until October 17, no polls are
available to project uninominal results, but the MAS has a
chance to reach this goal.


6. (C) Our contacts add that neither Manfred Reyes Villa nor
Samuel Doria Medina have thus far offered a competitive slate
of lower house candidates, further assisting the MAS. Much
will depend on how well President Morales performs, and
whether his coattails extend into the uninominal races, which
will turn on local political issues as much as national ones.


Opposition Out of Luck?
--------------


7. (C) Reyes Villa may still be privately bullish (reftel A)
on his chances to unseat President Morales, but the Greenberg
poll shows he may have limited himself by focusing on a core
constituency of hardline "anti-Evo" voters. Moreover, the
Greenberg poll shows he has a 60 percent unfavorable rating.
His pick of jailed ex-Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez as a vice
presidential candidate further cements his image as a
far-right candidate. The Greenberg poll highlights that 51
percent of voters nationally believe Fernandez is responsible
for the September 2008 Pando conflict in which 13 people
(mostly government supporters) died, while only 27 percent
believe he is innocent. Related to this, the poll reports
that 65 percent of the public view Fernandez unfavorably,
while only 15 percent view him favorably. While conceding
that he is viewed as a strong leader, the Greenberg poll
states that Reyes Villa -- who was voted out of his position
as Cochabamba prefect in the August 2008 revocatory
referendum -- would likely take only one Senate seat in his
home department, conceding the other three to the MAS.


8. (C) The Greenberg poll is kinder to Samuel Doria Medina,
noting that he has a higher favorability rating than Reyes
Villa (37 percent to 32 percent),has greater potential
nationally by appealing more to moderates, and is seen as
more likely than Reyes Villa to create job growth. Still,
Doria Medina has not shown growth in his polling figures, has
seen his favorability rating drop, and does not seem likely
to convince Reyes Villa to leave the race. (Note: The
Greenberg team reports to a Santa Cruz business roundtable
connected with Senate President Oscar Ortiz, who is now
aligned with Doria Medina's campaign. This could affect the
tone of the poll's findings. End note.)


9. (C) In contrast, the Greenberg poll shows Morales is
expanding his base to include moderates and middle-class
voters. Morales leads in almost all national categories,
whether broken out by gender, class, or ethnicity. Morales
leads among urban voters as well as rural. If all three
major opposition candidates (including Potosi Mayor Rene
Joaquino) were combined, they would barely challenge Morales
even among university graduates and mestizos, core opposition
constituencies.

Comment
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10. (C) With time slipping away, Reyes Villa and Doria Medina
are still negotiating over leadership of the opposition,
allowing President Morales the political time and space to
expand his base by appealing to moderates. Unless Reyes
Villa and Doria Medina can ally and blunt Morales' growing
momentum in less than two months -- a Herculean task -- the
only question left will be about the margin of Morales'
victory. End comment.
CREAMER