SUPREME COURT RESTORES SHAHBAZ SHARIF AS PUNJAB CHIEF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAHORE 000068

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV PTER PK
SUBJECT: SUPREME COURT RESTORES SHAHBAZ SHARIF AS PUNJAB CHIEF
MINISTER

CLASSIFIED BY: Bryan Hunt, Principal Officer, Consulate Lahore,
U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) Summary:The Supreme Court March 31 issued a stay order
against its February 25 decision to disqualify Nawaz and Shahbaz
Sharif from holding public office. The immediate impact of this
decision was to restore the status quo and temporarily restore
Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister. It did not/not settle the
issue of Sharifs' disqualification; the Court has yet to rule on
the petition submitted by the government on the original
disqualification ruling. The Sharifs' Pakistan Muslim League-N
(PML-N) Speaker of the Provincial Assembly subsequently
prorogued the assembly indefinitely. Both the PML-N and
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) remain divided about whether to
maintain their coalition at the provincial level or form a PML-N
government with votes from renegade Pakistan Muslim League (PML)
members. End Summary.

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Supreme Court Reinstates Shahbaz Sharif
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2. (SBU) The Supreme Court March 31 issued a stay order against
its February 25 decision to disqualify from public office both
Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif. The immediate impact of the stay
order was to return to the status quo; this means the
reinstatement of PML-N president Shahbaz Sharif as Chief
Minister of Punjab. "We direct that till final disposal of the
main petitions under review, the operation of February 25, 2009,
shall remain suspended and the petitioner (Shahbaz Sharif) shall
assume the chief minister office with immediate effect," Justice
Tassaduq Hussain Jillani, head of the five-member bench, ruled.
This stay order does not/not settle the issue of the Sharifs'
eligibility; the Court has just begun deliberations on the
government's petition for a review of the original February 25
decision.


3. (SBU) Speaker of the Provincial Assembly Rana Aftab prorogued
indefinitely the April 1 session that President Asif Zardari had
earlier called when he declared an end to governor's rule on
March 28.

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PML-N Ponders PPP or PML Alliance
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4. (C) Zain Qadri, PML-N Member of the Provincial Assembly (MPA)
and political advisor to Shahbaz Sharif, told poloff in a March
31 meeting that the PML-N now faces a decision of whether the
party will revive its previous coalition with the Pakistan
People's Party (PPP) or attempt to establish a provincial
government on its own. Although he acknowledged that some in
the PML-N felt that the tie-up with the PPP would help
stability, Qadri believed that Shahbaz should strike out on his
own. "We don't want to be blamed for what happens at the
center, but we can take responsibility for what happens in the
province," he insisted.


5. (C) If the PML-N decides to jettison the PPP, he speculated,
Shahbaz would dissolve the cabinet when the Assembly next meets.
Qadri estimated that the forward bloc, or the portion of the
Pakistan Muslim League (PML) that would support the PML-N in
government, has reached 48 MPAs. As a majority of the PML, he
explained, those MPAs siding with Shahbaz Sharif would not face
disqualification for ignoring party instructions. The PML would
effectively dissolve, he speculated. In another attempt to hold
his party together, PML President Chaudhry Shujaat indicated
April 1 that this party would play a role as the "real"
opposition.


6. (C) Qadri noted that Nawaz Sharif has not yet made his
preference for PPP or PML known. However, he believed, Shahbaz
has leaned towards a forward bloc solution.

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PPP Waits for Zardari's Decision
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7. (C) President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani and PPP
Spokesperson Fawzia Wahab have all stated publicly that the PPP
now will sit in opposition in Punjab. In effect, the PPP is
challenging the ability of the PML-N to form a government
without them. PPP insider Abdul Qadir Shaheen described to
Principal Officer April 1 that the party remains divided on

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rejoining the PML-N in a coalition. "A powerful pressure group
wants PPP to join," he related, including MPA Qasim Zia, who
hopes to obtain the Senior Minister position currently occupied
by rival Raja Riaz. Meanwhile, the PPP ministers have resumed
their offices although, according to Shaheen, Shahbaz has
delayed convening his cabinet until Zardari makes a decision of
whether to continue the coalition.

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PML-N Reverses Governor's Rule
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8. (C) Shaheen relayed that Shahbaz has already reversed several
actions taken by Governor Salman Taseer during governor's rule.
The Chief Secretary has told the Inspector General of Police
(IGP) to stop his work in preparation for the Prime Minister to
reappoint the previous IGP, Shaheen said. Shahbaz has also
cancelled 800 transfers ordered by the governor, according to
Shaheen. However, Shaheen, as well other observers, expect that
the Prime Minister will insist that Shahbaz retain the newly
appointed Chief Secretary, a fellow Seraiki speaker from south
Punjab.

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Comment: Smoother Sailing, But Clouds Still Linger
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9. (C) Comment: The temporary reinstatement of Shahbaz Sharif
will help settle the political waters in Punjab for now. The
next acts of this drama will depend on whether the PML forward
block reaches enough mass to split the party and whether Zardari
will appoint a replacement to the unpopular PPP Governor Salman
Taseer.
HUNT