POLICE FOCUS ON DOMESTIC EXTREMISTS AS MARWAN INVESTIGATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAHORE 000067

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/31/2034
TAGS: PTER PGOV PK
SUBJECT: POLICE FOCUS ON DOMESTIC EXTREMISTS AS MARWAN INVESTIGATION
PROGRESSES

REF: (A) LAHORE 64, (B) LAHORE 66

Derived from: DSCG 05-1, B,D

1. (C) Summary: Senior police contacts have told post that the
current investigation into the March 30 attack on the Manawan
Police Training School is focusing on domestic extremist groups
with ties to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Police
are under pressure to concentrate on Baitullah Mehsud's
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in part due to Interior Advisor
Rehman Malik's statement linking them to the incident and in
part due to western media coverage of Mehsud's claim of
responsibility for the attack. Given that the mode of attack
differs significantly from TTP's usual operations -- primarily
suicide bombings -- police are continuing to examine the
possibility of involvement by designated foreign terrorist
organizations Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which is believed to have been
involved in the March 3 attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in
Lahore; Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, which carried out the November
attacks in Mumbai; southern Punjab extremist group
Jaish-e-Mohammad; and various domestic al-Qaeda affiliates.
Senior police leaders are again under public pressure for
ostensibly ignoring an intelligence warning about a possible
attack on police facilities passed by the Lahore Corps Commander
earlier in the week. End Summary.


2. (C) Senior police contacts shared with post their initial
insights into the Manawan Police Training School attack on March

30. The initial investigation has shown that an
as-yet-undetermined number of terrorists entered the facility
from neighboring residential areas by climbing over two side
walls. Initial media reports of an attack on the front gate
were inaccurate. Upon entering the facility, the terrorists
threw grenades and then opened machine-gun fire on recruits, who
had gathered for their morning parade. The death toll,
according to police sources, is actually far higher than
reported in the media and may be over 50. More than 90 police
remain confined to local hospitals for treatment of injuries
sustained in the initial attack.


3. (C) Police sources claimed that following the attack on the
parade ground, the terrorists moved into the main building on
the training school's campus and barricaded themselves inside.
Police officials in the main building were held hostage by the
terrorists or remained in hiding in locked rooms in the facility
for the duration of the attack. Terrorists sporadically
exchanged fire with police, Elite Force, and the Rangers
paramilitary force for the duration of the nearly eight-hour
siege. Pakistan Army forces provided air support and advice to
the rescue and clean-up operation that was primarily conducted
by the Elite Force and Rangers. During the final operations,
four terrorists blew themselves up to avoid capture, and two
were killed by security forces' gunfire. Police sources claim
that there are still six unidentified bodies from the incident
that may be either terrorists or police personnel. The total
number of terrorists involved in the attack is unknown. Police
believe that at least one terrorist was injured but escaped.


4. (C) Police said that they have detained two terrorists in
connection with the incident. Both have reportedly been
transferred to the custody of the Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) for questioning. Police are confident that one of those
detained took direct part in the attack and was captured in the
course of the operation. Pictures of his detention have been
prominently displayed in local media. Police sources claim that
the individual is primarily a Pashto speaker, but they admit
that he may come from either northern Pakistan or southern
Afghanistan. Police sources are not confident that the second
individual was actually involved in the attack and believe that
he may have been mistakenly detained.


5. (C) Interior Minister Rehman Malik told Ambassador March 31
that as many as four people have been arrested in connection
with the attack. The one attacker, who announced "I am Muslim"
was, according to Malik, linked through phone intercepts to
Baitullah Mehsud's second in command. Malik said this
individual arrived in Lahore 15 days before the attack; he had
been crossing back and forth across the Pak-Afghan border for
some time. Three additional persons were picked up in the
vicinity carrying arms and are under investigation. Malik also
saw possible links to Jaish-e-Mohammad, but how they are linked
to Mehsud in this attack was unclear.


6. (C) Police sources admitted to post that their investigation

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has yet to reveal clear leads to any terrorist organization.
Senior police leaders are focusing attention on the
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in large part due to the
Minister Malik's public statement claiming the group's
involvement. Local media carried prominent denials of
responsibility from the TTP's spokesperson. However, Reuters is
claiming that TTP leader Baitullah Mehsud has accepted
responsibility in an interview with its reporter -- a story
which has subsequently been picked up by BBC. Police sources,
however, are somewhat skeptical of TTP's ability to mount such
an attack, noting that it differs significantly from the group's
traditional suicide bombing methodology. Police claim that in
addition to TTP, they are also strongly focusing on the
possibility of the involvement of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which is
now believed to have been responsible for the March 3 attack on
the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, and Lashkar-e-Tayyaba,
which carried out the November attacks in Mumbai and is angered
by the continued detention of its leaders in Pakistan. Police
are also looking into possible connections to Jaish-e-Mohammad,
a terrorist group based in southern Punjab, and local al-Qaeda
affiliates.


7. (C) Police leaders have been embarrassed by the revelation in
local media that the Lahore Army Corps Commander had passed a
credible intelligence report to both the Inspector General of
Police and the Capitol City Police Officer Lahore warning of a
possible terrorist attack against police installations in
Lahore. Police sources confirmed to post that such a report
had, in fact, been received. The embarrassing incident mirrors
a similar one where intelligence agencies had provided police
with advance warning of a possible terrorist attack on the Sri
Lankan team in advance of the March 3 incident.


8. (C) Comment: Post believes that it is too early in the
investigation to draw any firm conclusions regarding which
terrorist group was responsible for the March 30 attack. The
focus on domestic groups with links to Pakistan's troubled
Afghan border region seems sensible. If TTP is shown to have
played a significant role in the March 30 attacks, it would mark
a significant shift in operational methodology for the group and
demonstrate a new tactical ability not previously displayed.
Post fully expects that the newly restored Shahbaz Sharif
government will use the incident as a pretext for massive
reshuffling within the Punjab Police designed to replace those
officers appointed during governor's rule and seen as loyal to
Governor Taseer or the Pakistan Peoples Party. End Comment.
HUNT