GOVERNOR RESISTS COMPROMISE IN PUNJAB

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000050


E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PK
SUBJECT: GOVERNOR RESISTS COMPROMISE IN PUNJAB

REF: Islamabad 541


CLASSIFIED BY: Bryan Hunt, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate
Lahore, U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



1. (C) Summary: Punjab Governor Salman Taseer told Principal
Officer (PO) March 14 that the best solution to stabilize the
provincial government continues to rely on a tie-up between the
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League
(PML) with a PPP Chief Minister at the helm. He dismissed the
unity government idea floated by PML leader Chaudhry Shujaat
Hussain (reftel),and contended that too much bad blood existed
between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and PPP to make
a reconciliation between the two parties feasible. However, he
hedged, any decision to reconcile ultimately rests with the
President and Prime Minister. Taseer noted that while the
lawyers have so far had diminishing returns, he expected to give
orders to put several Members of the Provincial Assembly (MPAs)
under house arrest on March 15-16 for "their own safety." PO
underlined that the international community would react to the
detention of any senior leadership, MPA or Members of the
National Assembly. End Summary.

- - -
Large Marches Fail to Materialize in Punjab
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2. (C) In a March 14 meeting with Principal Officer (PO),Punjab
Governor Salman Taseer observed that the precautions taken by
the authorities so far have diminished the turnout at rallies.
He related that he has allowed 150 lawyers to march in Multan
for 30 minutes, after which they had agreed to go home. "With
only a few thousand people showing up, it looks pathetic if they
sit in some parade ground," he stated. He detailed that the
provincial government has decided to stop marchers at entry
points into Lahore and Rawalpindi, and return them to their
original province. While southern Punjab remained "completely
dead," he worried that Rawalpindi might bring out trouble-makers
from the slum areas and cause problems, which the police would
deal with appropriately.

- - -
Hope Still Lies with PPP-Q Tie-Up
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3. (C) Asked about his efforts to secure a post-Governor's Rule
government in Punjab, Taseer divulged that the PPP has offered a
package to the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) which gives them
federal ministerships and a "joint candidate" for the Chief
Minister position in Punjab, but declined to offer a clear
timeline. The Chief Minister would come from the PPP, he
specified, and the government would treat the PML-N as the
"honorable opposition." He thought that the PML would refuse to
ally with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). "N is not a
party you can work with; the two mad Sharifs are beyond reason,"
he opined. However, he hedged, the ultimate decision rests with
the President and Prime Minister. He offered that he would take
a compromise if the PML-N pledged to refrain from former Chief
Minister Shahbaz Sharif's previous tactics, in which he failed
to fulfill the terms of a coalition.

- - -
Governor Dismisses Idea of Unity Coalition
- - -


4. (C) The PO relayed PML leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain's
proposal to form a unity government of the three main political
parties, with a PML Chief Minister a the helm of the Punjab
government (reftel). Taseer dismissed the proposal, and
assessed that both Moonis Elahi, who the PML has suggested as
the next Chief Minister, and his father Pervez Elahi, who
formerly served as Chief Minister, would have a difficult time
governing in the current situation without the "godfather of
Musharraf." He reiterated that the most logical solution is a
PML and PPP alliance. "Distrust and bad blood characterize the
N League, and I cannot see the Chaudhrys handling the Sharifs,"
he surmised. He asked PO to persuade the PML leadership to
accept the PPP's offer, which he believed would guarantee
stability and peace in Punjab. Moreover, he suggested,
additional discussions can take place regarding the
constitutional arrangements, provided that former Chief Justice
Chaudhry Iftikar remains off the table. "He's a highly
dangerous man," he judged.

- - -
Restoration of Eligibility Would Not Necessarily Bring Shahbaz
Back in Power
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5. (C) The PO asked whether a judicial review that invalidated
the decision that disqualified Shahbaz Sharif would allow
Shahbaz to return to his position as Chief Minister. Taseer
said that Shahbaz would still not be able to serve as Chief
Minister, as demonstrated in a previous ruling. Moreover,
Taseer emphasized, the PPP and PML would refuse to allow another
Shahbaz tenure. "His entire program was to destroy both
parties," he recalled. The PO stressed that if Shahbaz could
not head the provincial government, the PPP would have to make
"serious concessions on Iftikar Chaudhry and the 17th
Amendment." Taseer observed that the Sharifs would likely
refuse anyone else from the PML-N to take the Chief Minister
position, which he speculated could split the party and diminish
their influence.

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House Arrests in Punjab in the Cards
- - -


6. (C) The Governor detailed that while southern Punjab has been
quiet, he expects to put several prominent leaders under house
arrest. For instance, he related, he has issued orders not to
allow former president of the Supreme Court Bar Association
Munir Malik to fly into Punjab from Karachi. PO underscored
that arrests of senior leaders would be strongly criticized by
international donors. The governor responded that 48-hour
detentions would occur "for their own safety; we don't want an
unpleasant incident to happen." PO repeated that arresting
senior leadership, Members of the Provincial Assembly (MPAs),
Members of the National Assembly (MNAs),or Senators was
counterproductive . The governor again reported that he has
asked the police to take MNA and PML-N Senior Vice-President
Makhdoom Javed Hashmi to a "rest house, serve him tea and urge
him to relax." PO responded that unless they engage in or
actively encourage arson, vandalism or violence, the provincial
government should refrain from arrests of senior political
party/lawyers' movement/civil society leaders, MPAs, MNAs, or
Senators. The governor restated that he planned to arrest
several MPAs.


7. (C) During the conversation, Taseer took two phone calls. In
the first telcon, he approved of allowing 10-15 people in
Khanewal, Okara, and Sahiwal districts to "march up and down"
and then go home. In the second telcon, he reiterated that
orders to provincial police should only come from him or the
Chief Secretary, and not from the Ministry of Interior.

- - -
Comment: Governor's Distrust of PML-N Outweighs Thoughts of
Compromise
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8. (C) The governor's faith in a PPP-PML deal, which has failed
to materialize for many months, comes from a deep antipathy
towards the PML-N leadership, as well as his own ambition to
become Chief Minister in his own right. But as he made clear in
the meeting, he will swallow any compromise sealed by his
party's leadership. In the meantime, however, he will continue
to work for a partnership with the PML and use arrests and
blockades to stifle the long march, actions which will further
complicate efforts to find a resolution to the current political
crisis.


GROUT