Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09LAHORE38
2009-03-03 13:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lahore
Cable title:  

THE NUMBERS GAME IN THE PUNJAB

Tags:  PGOV PK 
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O P 031313Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL LAHORE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3940
INFO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY KABUL 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
CIA WASHDC
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
AMCONSUL LAHORE
C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000038 


E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/2/2034
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: THE NUMBERS GAME IN THE PUNJAB

Derived from: DSCG 05-1, B,D

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000038


E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/2/2034
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: THE NUMBERS GAME IN THE PUNJAB

Derived from: DSCG 05-1, B,D


1. (C) Summary: The key to power in the Punjab lies with the
Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and its leaders the Chaudhrys of
Gujrat. The Chaudhry cousins told the Principal Officer on
February 28 that they were being assiduously courted by both the
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League -
Nawaz (PML-N) but were adament that they had not -- despite
claims to the contrary from PPP officials -- formalized a deal
with either party. Absent support from the Chaudhries, neither
the PPP nor the PML-N are currently in a position to form a
government. While the Chaudhries are leaning strongly towards
the PML-N, they were concerned that party leader Nawaz Sharif
might not be interested either in forming a government or in
reconciling with the PML. The PPP, which is desperate to
achieve its own government in the Punjab, is talking with the
Chaudhries as well as independent-minded members of the PML-N
and PML, but as of March 2 appeared to have found little
success. End Summary.

PML Strategy


2. (C) Pakistan's two main political parties are both struggling
to obtain the 187 votes in the provincial assembly necessary to
form a new government in the Punjab province, much to the
reported dismay of PPP leaders in Islamabad who had been assured
by Punjab Governor Salman Taseer that the necessary votes would
materialize once Shahbaz Sharif was removed. In a February 28
meeting with Principal Officer, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi repeatedly emphasized that they had made
no final deal with Governor Taseer to support the PPP in
electing a new Chief Minister in the Punjab and that they were
"having fun" receiving emissaries from both the major political
parties. Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, who had reportedly been
encouraging his party to align with the PPP, stated that both
PPP Chair President Zardari and PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif were
"untrustworthy." His elder cousin, and the likely final
decisionmaker, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, however, chimed in to
add that the PPP was "unpopular" as well. The two declared
themselves open to offers from either side but stated that
formal terms had not yet been discussed with either party.
Chaudhry Shujaat offered that the "natural electoral alliance"
was with the PML-N, but Chaudhry Pervaiz countered that perhaps
that could come at a later date closer to national elections.


3. (C) Chaudhry Pervaiz suggested that his return as Chief

Minister (he held the job for most of the Musharraf period) was
a strong possibility in the case of alliance with either side.
He argued that the PPP candidates for Chief Minister lacked the
skills to govern the province (former provincial Senior Minister
Raja Riaz and former provincial Opposition Leader Qasim Zia) or
would be a public relations disaster (Governor Salman Taseer).
Chaudhry Shujaat ruled out his party accepting either former
provincial Finance Minister Tanveer Kaira or federal Defence
Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar as Chief Minister as both came
from the Chaudhries home district of Gujrat. He also added that
Prime Minister Gilani would block any attempt to move current
Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi into the job, as he posed
a potential rival in the Prime Minister's home district fo
Multan. Chaudhry Shujaat was skeptical that the Sharif brothers
wanted to elevate Sardar Zulfiqar Khosa or another PML-N member
to the post of Chief Minister, as the brothers perpetually
feared anyone else in the party heading a provincial or federal
government. This he felt might make the PML-N more amenable to
an alliance in which the PML provided the Chief Minister --
although he never directly suggested Chaudhry Pervaiz, as the
candidate for the job in such an alliance.


4. (C) Principal Officer inquired about the PML forward block --
37 PML members of the provincial assembly who had already
pledged their support to the PML-N. The Chaudhries stated that
they believed 35 of these were recoverable with the right amount
of political and financial inducement. Chaudhry Shujaat stated
that if the alliance with the PPP was eventually chosen, the PML
would move to disqualify preemptively Ataur Maneka based on his
repeated public statements in support of the PML-N. This would
prevent others from voting against the party out of fear for
losing their seats. He noted, however, that disqualification
would not invalidate the overall Chief Minister election,
meaning that a PPP alliance was a risk.


5. (C) Chaudhry Shujaat noted that unlike the PPP (which had
provided a meeting with President Zardari) approaches those from
the PML-N, thus far, had not come directly from Nawaz or Shahbaz
Sharif but rather through senior party officials (Ishaq Dar,
Pervaiz Malik, and Ch. Nisar Ali Khan). He worried that while
many in the PML-N would like to form a governing coalition with
the PML, it would still take significant effort to convince
Nawaz Sharif to lay aside personal differences with the
Chaudhries. He characterized the condolence calls from Nawaz
and Shahbaz Sharif on the death of his mother as "helpful" but
noted that no political breakthroughs had been achieved in those
meetings, only a thawing of relations. Chaudhry Shujaat noted
that media magnate Majid Nizami (owner of the Nation, the
right-wing Nawa-i-Waqt, and Waqt television) was working to
convince Nawaz Sharif to move towards a PML alliance. At the
end of the meeting, Chaudhry Shujaat pulled Principal Officer
away from his cousin and whispered that the Principal Officer
should meet with Nizami and with Nawaz or Shahbaz Sharif and try
to help achieve a PML/PML-N deal.

PPP Worries about a Majority


6. (C) In separate February 28 meetings with Principal Officer,
PPP Secretary General Jehangir Badr and former PPP Provincial
Assembly Opposition Leader and Chief Minister hopeful Qasim Zia
revealed that President Zardari blamed Governor Taseer for the
current political crisis. They stated that the Governor had
assured President Zardari that he had the required numbers and a
final deal with the PML prior to the verdict and the subsequent
imposition of governor's rule. Zia claimed that the PPP senior
leaders now recognized that Taseer had been either overly
optimistic in his estimates or completely "out-of-touch with
ground realities." Badr felt that there was "little hope" of
gaining either the required PML deal (which he argued most in
the party still opposed) or of convincing independents or
independent-minded PML-N types to support a PPP candidate. Zia
believed that a deal was still possible with the PML,
particularly once they had been rebuffed by the Sharifs, who he
argued were in no mood to cut a deal that would resolve the
political crisis. He also held out hope for getting some
forward block to switch sides, but only after the party clearly
revealed who was going to be the Chief Minister candidate --
something that up until now the party had resisted. Former PPP
Senior Minister Raja Riaz in a March 2 meeting with Principal
Officer stated that the PML had stonewalled on any deal through
the weekend and that he was not optimistic for a quick end to
governor's rule, which he (and the other two leaders) all agreed
had become a public relations disaster.

PML-N Protests Die Down


7. (C) The PML-N backed off its province-wide protest strategy
on March 1. Only small demonstrations (a few hundred people)
occurred on March 1 at so-called "hunger strike camps" that the
party had established in all districts of the province. Nawaz
Sharif addressed a large gathering at Jamia Naeemia (a
conservative Brailvi madrassa in Lahore whose leadership was
responsible for violent street protests in Lahore in February
2006 over the Danish cartoons). Shahbaz Sharif addressed a
conference on human rights atrocities in Swat, organized by
civil society activists at Lahore's Al-Hamra Hall. On March 2,
Nawaz Sharif addressed a gathering of nearly 2000 in the rural
district of Narowal (central Punjab),while Shahbaz Sharif
addressed a rally of around 7500 in the southern city of
Bahawalpur. According to the party's Central Finance Secretary
Pervaiz Malik, this change in strategy was taken primarily to
focus the party's efforts on demonstrations were senior leaders
would be present and to shore-up support from like-minded
elements in the civil society and madrassa communities. Malik
stated that the party would limit its province-wide protests
while it prepared for the March 12-16 long march to and sit-in
at Islamabad. PML-N MPAs attempted to hold a legally
questionable session at the now-unlocked Provincial Assembly
building on March 2, primarily to speak against the imposition
of governor's rule. They abandoned their efforts upon learning
that news media was barred from entering the Assembly building.

Comment


8. (C) The PML holds the key to forming a new Punjab government.
The Chaudhries are carefully considering their best political
option but appear to be leaning strongly towards the PML-N.
Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain appears to have effectively overruled
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and his son Moonis' initial enthusiasm
towards the PPP and is making the final decisions on any
governing alliances without regards for the Elahis' personal
political ambitions. Provided the Sharifs are interested in
making a deal to remain in the Punajb government, a still
as-yet-questionable proposition, the PPP may find that its
attempt to seize the provincial government through
disqualification has failed. In such a scenario, President
Zardari will be left with the unpalatable options of either
taking the public relations hit of continuing an unpopular
governor's rule for an extended period of time or admitting
defeat and allowing the PML-N and PML to form a provincial
government with the PPP in opposition. End Comment.


HUNT