PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER THREATENS "OPEN WAR" IF NAWAZ IS DISQUALIFIED

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000011


E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, PK
SUBJECT: PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER THREATENS "OPEN WAR" IF NAWAZ IS
DISQUALIFIED

REF: ISLAMABAD 141

CLASSIFIED BY: Bryan Hunt, Principal Officer, Consulate Lahore,
U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) Summary: Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif told Principal
Officer (PO) January 23 that his party would start an "open war"
if the Supreme Court disqualified either him or his brother
Nawaz Sharif from holding office and stated that
disqualification would trigger "riots and masses on the
streets," thus opening a potential window of opportunity for the
military to intervene. Governor Salman Taseer disagreed,
telling PO in a separate January 23 meeting that the Sharifs
could muster very little support on the streets and expressing
confidence that the Pakistan People's Party would take over the
Chief Minister position with little disruption. President
Zardari plans to meet the evening of January 23 with the
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz to discuss a possible settlement,
but neither the Chief Minister nor the Governor foresaw
resolution. PO stressed to both leaders that the U.S. wanted to
see stability and continuity in government. End Summary.

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Chief Minister Says Disqualification Will Trigger Open War
- - -

2. (C) Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif told Principal
Officer January 23 that the disqualification by the Supreme
Court of either him or his brother, former Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif, from holding public office would trigger an "open war."
He predicted that a ruling against the Sharifs would provoke
riots throughout Punjab province, as the Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PML-N) gathers its members and associated parties.
Asked if the PML-N Members of the Provincial Assembly (MPA)
would stand down from the Punjab Assembly, Shahbaz described it
as a "distinct possibility."

3. (C) Shahbaz said that he was reassured that Chief of Army
Staff General Kayani "seeks stability," but he noted that the
disqualification judgment could cause such political chaos that
it might compel the military to intervene. He clarified that
while the court could disqualify Nawaz immediately, Shahbaz
would face a tribunal at the provincial level that could take
"days or months" to reaffirm the disqualification. If the
Provincial Assembly had to choose a new Chief Minister, Shahbaz <br />said that he could not predict which way the votes would go,
though he believed that the PML-N had the numbers now to take a
majority.

4. (C) PO assured Shahbaz that the U.S. has not encouraged the
disqualification decision to occur, and has pressed all parties
to put governance ahead of politics. Shahbaz replied that, as
he looks back on his tenure as Chief Minister, he has attempted
to inculcate good governance, a critical element in the
development of the province.

- - -
Governor Convinced That PPP Will Prevail Peacefully
- - -

5. (C) In a separate January 23 meeting, Governor Salman Taseer
maintained that the PML-N could do little if confronted by a
disqualification ruling. "I don't think they have the clout for
street demonstrations; they have no workers, no street power,"
he insisted. He dismissed the warning by PML-N MPAs that they
would resign as "just a threat," and believed that many would
remain in the Assembly if the Sharifs were disqualified. Taseer
blasted the Chief Minister as "psychotic and power hungry," and
contended that Nawaz was unfit to rule the government.

6. (C) Taseer related that the entire Pakistan Muslim League
(PML) block would align with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)
even if the PPP kept the Chief Minister position. "They'll go
with the ruler -- they're like a soft puppy," he quipped. He
explained that the province would fall under Governor's Rule for
several months, after which the Assembly would choose a new
Chief Minister. Asked who the PPP might nominate, he responded
that "we have plenty of candidates, don't worry." In fact, he
continued, "there is nothing to stop the Governor from becoming
Chief Minister." When PO pointed out that the Constitution
might bar the Governor from holding the Chief Ministership,
Taseer responded that the bar only applies to bureaucrats and
not "constitutional appointments."

7. (C) Regarding a settlement, Taseer related that President
Zardari would discuss the situation with the PML-N on the
evening of January 23, but he did not forecast a resolution.
[Note: PPP MPA Qasim Zia noted in a separate January 23 meeting
that the discussion would include two senior federal ministers
from the PPP. Embassy Islamabad contacts reported that Nawaz
held a meeting of all PML-N parliamentarians in Islamabad in
preparation for the meeting. End Note.]

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Comment: PPP Underestimates PML-N Power
- - -

8. (C) While Shahbaz appeared resigned to the disqualification
decision, the Governor seemed overly confident in the PPP's
ability to withstand a PML-N onslaught. We believe that he has
grossly underestimated the popularity of the PML-N in the
province, as well as its ability to bring out masses to
participate in marches and protests. Moreover, Taseer has also
overestimated the cohesion of the PML block, whose members have
tended to lean in several directions at once. Post believes
that any change in leadership in the provincial level,
particularly as a result of a Supreme Court disqualification,
would prompt a bitter political struggle that will spill over to
poison party relations at the federal level. Regardless of
Shahbaz's predictions of Army intervention to quell unrest, we
believe the PPP government would take significant steps to
control law and order specifically to preclude the need for Army
intervention.


HUNT