NIGER DELTA TECHNICAL COMMITTEE WARNS FAILURE TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000129

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - HANDLE ACCORDINGLY
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/EX AND INR/AA
STATE PASS TO USTR-AGAMA
BAGHDAD FOR MCCULLOUGH
BOTSWANA FOR DROUIN
TREASURY FOR PETERS AND HALL
DOC FOR 3317/ITA/OA/KBURRESS AND 3130/USFC/OIO/ANESA/DHARRIS
USAID/AFR/WA FOR TWAY, USAID/AFR/SD JHILL, AND UNSAID/EGAT
MOTT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON KCOR KCRM SENV EPET NI
SUBJECT: NIGER DELTA TECHNICAL COMMITTEE WARNS FAILURE TO
IMPLEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS UNDERMINES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT'S
CREDIBILITY

REF: A. LAGOS 14

B. 08 ABUJA 1951


1. (SBU) Summary: The Niger Delta Technical Committee Report,
submitted to President Yar 'Adua on December 1, 2008,
reviewed 14 previous reports on the Niger Delta, and made
recommendations to solve the long-standing crisis there.
(Note: the report has not yet been made public and Post's
analysis is based on a copy provided confidentially by one of
the Committee members. End Note.) The report highlighted the
fact that most of the problems and solutions for the Niger
Delta have been identified for decades and that the failure
to implement past recommendations has led to increasing
frustration with and seriously undermined the credibility of
the Federal Government. The committee broke down their
recommendations into two parts: 1) a "Compact with
Stakeholders" which amounts to a catalogue of immediate
measures to restore the credibility of the GON and establish
confidence in the process, and 2) all other recommended
measures. The report identifies not only the tasks that need
to be carried out but the time-frame and the appropriate
institution for implementing each recommendation. The report
is concise, comprehensive and cogent, providing an excellent
framework for addressing the complex problems in the Niger
Delta. There is, however, no indication that its
recommendations will be implemented any better than past
recommendations. End Summary.

Technical Committee Report Complete but not Public
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) The Niger Delta Technical Committee (NDTC) was
formed by the GON on September 8 to review all past reports
on the situation in the Niger Delta and make recommendations
on how to solve the on-going crisis. The 45 members of the
Committee elected Ledum Mittee, the President of the Movement
for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP),to chair the
committee. The NDTC reviewed 14 previous reports going back
to 1958 and 10 petitions from ethnic groups from the Niger
Delta requesting assistance and redress of the situation in
the region. The NDTC also requested submissions from the
public, conducted meetings with stakeholders, made visits to
the area and met with leaders of militant camps in order to
develop a comprehensive picture of the situation in the Niger
Delta today. The NDTC established eight subcommittees which
focused on the particular areas of concern: 1)
infrastructure, 2) health and education, 3) economic
development and regional planning, 4) environment,
sustainable development and corporate responsibility, 5)
governance and the rule of law, 6) community, youth and women
empowerment, 7) resource ownership, management and
distribution and 8) conflict, militancy and demobilization.
The results of the Committee's analysis and its
recommendations were compiled in a report submitted to the
Federal Government on December 1, 2008, but not yet released
to the public. Post obtained a confidential copy of the
report from one of the committee members.

No Implementation of Recommendations from Previous Reports
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) The NDTC noted that going back to the 1958 report of
Sir Henry Willinks, a Queen's Counsel appointed by the
Colonial Office, nearly all analyses broadly identify
development challenges and the need to involve local
communities in the ethnically diverse region in that
development. By 1992, the report of Supreme Court Justice
Alfa Belgore blamed the increasing unrest in the region on
"neglect" by the Federal Government and recommended

LAGOS 00000129 002 OF 003


substantial investments in development in the region starting
with major infrastructure projects. In 1994, a high-profile
team sent by General Sani Abacha concluded that the
grievances of the local inhabitants were "well founded" and
specifically mentioned the "dangerously high unemployment" in
the region. By 1998, General Oladayo Popoola reported that
unemployed youth were prone to criminal activities and that
what had been legitimate community protests about conditions
were becoming increasingly criminalized. The Niger Delta
Human Development Report of the UNDP in 2006 cited "high
unemployment," "abject poverty," "corruption," "endemic
conflict" and "rampant human rights abuses" among other
factors as the principal problems of the Niger Delta. In
general, deterioration in infrastructure and stability is
recorded along with a slide toward ever greater poverty,
environmental degradation, crime and violence in the series
of reports issued with increasing frequency by respected
national and international groups. The NDTC stresses that
although many of the recommendations were made by committees
explicitly established by previous Heads of State with the
mandate to "solve" the crisis, virtually none of the
recommendations have been implemented. The NDTC notes that
this has led to growing frustration with and falling
credibility of the GON.

Immediate Action Required
--------------


4. (SBU) The NDTC divided their recommendations into two
parts, a so-called "Compact with Stakeholders" that is a
catalogue of immediate measures designed to restore the
credibility of the GON and build confidence in the process,
and all the remaining recommendations old and new. The key
feature of the Compact with Stakeholders is complete
transparency of the process including the publication of
milestones and deadlines against which progress can be
measured. The most important milestones recommended are 1)
increase the allocation accruing from oil and gas to the oil
producing states from the current 12 per cent to 25 per cent,
2) declare a cease-fire with all armed groups in the region
backed by clear conditions for amnesty within the next six
months, 3) improve the operational effectiveness of the Joint
Task Force (JTF) to eliminate all forms of abuse and to
enable effective policing against criminals, 4) establish a
direct labor "Youth Employment Scheme" to employ youths in
community work in each Local Government Area in the nine
oil-producing states within six months, 5) complete the
expansion to four lanes of the East-West road from Lagos to
Calabar by June 2010, 6) ensure 5,000 MW of dedicated power
to the Niger Delta by June 2010, 7) enforce the existing
environmental laws including putting an immediate end to gas
flaring, and require international oil companies (IOCs) to
carry environmental insurance, 8)rehabilitate all existing
health care facilities in the region and provide free health
care to all children under the age of five, pregnant women,
and all people over the age of 65, and 9) rehabilitate and
equip all existing primary and secondary schools.

Disarm, Develop, Govern, Protect the Environment
-------------- ---


5. (SBU) Remaining recommendations are divided into topical
groups and then assigned to the various actors, including the
Federal, State and Local Area Governments, the Niger Delta
Development Commission (NDDC),IOCs, foreign aid donors and
private industry. The recommendations are divided within each
category and responsibility by time frame into short, mid and
long-term goals. The topical groups are: Disarmament,
Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR),Governance, Regional

LAGOS 00000129 003 OF 003


Development, Environment and Human Capital Development. Key
recommendations with respect to DDR are: 1) establish a
credible commission, 2) ensure a public and fair trial for
alleged illegal arms-dealer Henry Okah, 3) grant amnesty to
all willing to lay down their arms, 4) exclude from amnesty
and criminalize anyone unwilling to take part in the DDR
process, 5) equip and train the security forces in peace
enforcement and punish abuses, and 6) halt illegal bunkering.
With respect to governance, the NDTC recommends that the
following laws be amended or repealed: Territorial Waters
Act, Land Use Act, Oil Pipelines Act, Nigerian Minerals and
Mining Act, National Inland Waterways Authority Act. In
addition, the NDTC recommends reviewing Section 44 (3) of the
1999 Constitution. The key thrust of the recommendations with
regard to regional development is to diversify the economy of
the region away from dependence on oil and natural gas. In
addition, the dredging of waterways and construction of
infrastructure are seen as crucial to development. The key
environmental recommendations are to end the flaring and
enforce the existing environmental laws. In addition, the
NDTC Report recommends requiring "environmental impact
statements" for all new projects, and advocates setting aside
funds to research the health impact of oil and gas pollution
as well as the potential effects of Climate Change on the
Niger Delta. With respect to Human Capital Development, the
report recommends the rehabilitation of all heath and
education facilities located in the Niger Delta and the
establishment of a teaching hospital in Bayelsa State among
other measures.


6. (SBU) Comment: The report is concise, comprehensive and
cogent, providing an excellent framework for addressing the
complex problems in the Niger Delta. Particularly, impressive
is the willingness to identify the appropriate actors for
addressing specific tasks. Equally positive is the
willingness to make bold recommendations and set deadlines.
Some of the suggestions, such as the direct employment of
youth at the Local Government Area in a Youth Employment
Scheme appear readily implementable without vast budgets;
however, others like the provision of 5,000 MW of dedicated
electricity by June 2010 and immediate cessation of gas
flaring are clearly illusory. More to the point, there is no
indication that the recommendations of the NDTC will be
implemented. It seems more likely that the NDTC Report will
suffer the same fate as all 14 of its predecessors and
contribute more to the frustration felt by stakeholders than
to the solution of the crisis. End Comment.


7. (U) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja.
BLAIR