PRESIDENT AND PM CALL IN DIP CORPS; DEFENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000988

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL UP
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT AND PM CALL IN DIP CORPS; DEFENSE
MINISTER DISMISSED

REF: A. KYIV 694

B. KYIV 950

KYIV 00000988 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge James Pettit for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko
on June 5 called in selected HOMs to argue their respective
positions on a potential broad coalition between BYuT and
opposition Party of Regions (Regions). Yushchenko
characterized the potential BYuT-Regions marriage and their
planned constitutional changes an illegal dismantling of
democratic institutions. Tymoshenko in turn argued that the
country needs reform now or it could be torn apart in the
upcoming presidential election, and any constitutional
changes will be legal under current law. In the Rada,
Tymoshenko's BYuT and opposition Regions voted together to
dismiss Defense Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov, a key Yushchenko
ally. Rada contacts say a grand coalition could be announced
on Tuesday if BYuT and Regions can agree to unite. End
Summary.

He Said
--------------


2. (C) President Yushchenko on the morning of June 5 called
in G-7, Visegrad, and Swedish HOMs. Yushchenko, flanked by
NSDC Secretary Bohateryova and other staff, characterized
BYuT/Regions efforts at forming a broad coalition and passing
a new constitution "an illegal dismantling of democratic
institutions without referendum." The President focused
especially on two facets of the new constitution as reported
in the press (and confirmed by Rada contacts),the extension
of the current Rada's term from 2012 to 2014, and the direct
election of the President by the Rada. These steps would
"overturn constitutional rule," according to Yushchenko, who
closed the session with the statement "I will not allow
election of the President by the Rada." The President did
not outline any next steps he may take and left the meeting
without taking questions.

She Said
--------------


3. (C) Prime Minister Tymoshenko matched Yushchenko with an
afternoon session with HOMs from Germany, France, the UK, EC
and the US. Tymoshenko justified the need for a broad
coalition with Regions, saying that a presidential campaign
and election could tear the country apart. She conceded that
84 percent of Ukrainians oppose the idea of an indirectly
elected president. She countered that under the new system,
voters would be able to "in effect," directly elect a
stronger executive government as the first name on each party
list would be that party's candidate for Prime Minister. The
PM reported that the first draft of what she termed a
"sensible constitution" was finalized (reftels),and that
three factions (BYuT, Regions and Lytvyn Bloc) supported it.
Tymoshenko reported that they had bowed to public opposition
to a two-year extension of the current Rada's term --
election will be held in 2012 as scheduled. The PM stressed
that any changes to the constitution would be legal under the
current constitution and would not require a national
referendum.

Grand Coalition Update
--------------


4. (C) Rada contacts told us on June 5 that BYuT and Regions
would continue to negotiate the details of their potential
coalition agreement through the weekend. Even if the two
sides reached final agreement, our contacts did not expect an
announcement on the coalition before next week. The Rada
voted June 5 to work in plenary session again starting June 9
-- it had been scheduled to be a committee week with no floor
activity. BYuT MP Valeriy Pysarenko told us that both
Regions and BYuT planned to hold faction meetings on Tuesday.
If both factions could agree to unite, the coalition could
be announced in the Rada on Tuesday afternoon.

Defense Minister Dismissed
--------------


5. (U) The Rada on June 5 voted to dismiss Defense Minister
Yekhanurov over allegations that he failed to properly
oversee Defense Ministry land sales and procurement contracts
for food and fuel. The dismissal garnered 363 votes (out of
398 MPs present) with 161 Party of Regions, 152 Tymoshenko
Bloc (BYuT),27 Communist, 19 Lytvyn Bloc, and 4 Our
Ukraine-People,s Self Defense (OU-PSD) bloc MPs voting in

KYIV 00000988 002 OF 002


favor. Yekhanurov was invited to the Rada to make a
statement prior to the vote, but refused to attend the
parliamentary session.

6. (C) MPs denied that Yekhanurov,s removal was connected
to efforts to negotiate a new coalition between BYuT and
Party of Regions or that it would cause the current coalition
to fracture. BYuT Deputy Faction leader Andriy Kozhemyakin
said that the party had long worked to remove Yekhanurov and
that the support of the Lytvyn bloc and Communists, who are
not part of the proposed new coalition, showed that this was
not related to the ongoing negotiations. Regions MP Yuriy
Miroshnochenko said that the vote was not a "rehearsal for a
new coalition" but was simply a move to replace a minister
who had failed to properly oversee the actions of his
ministry. BYuT MP Valeriy Pysarenko and OU-PSD MP Volodomyr
Ariyev both told us that although the current coalition
partners could not agree on Yekhanurov,s fate, BYuT and
Lytvyn bloc,s vote to dismiss him will not break up the
current coalition.
Comment
--------------


7. (C) With a dwindling domestic political constituency,
Yushchenko's appeal to the international community was an
attempt to garner support for his fight against the potential
BYuT-Regions coalition. Tymoshenko has maintained since
April that these steps are necessary to insure Ukraine's
continued democratic development. While none of the proposed
changes in the new draft constitution (as reported) appear to
directly violate the current constitution, several are widely
perceived as undemocratic in their impact -- especially the
provisions extending the Rada's current term by two years,
which she claimed had been abandoned, and indirect election
of the President in the Rada. Tymoshenko is aware of her
uphill battle in convincing Ukrainians, and the international
community, of the democratic legitimacy of her efforts, but
is holding to her argument that the changes are needed and
will ultimately result in a more democratic and stable
country.
PETTIT