BYUT-REGIONS CLOSE TO FORMING BROAD COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000950

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: BYUT-REGIONS CLOSE TO FORMING BROAD COALITION

REF: KYIV 924

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Robert Scott for reasons 1.4(
b,d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) While PM Tymoshenko's BYuT faction and opposition
Party of Regions (Regions) have yet to announce their
possible broad Rada coalition, Rada contacts from both
factions confirmed that negotiations are ongoing and that the
two sides are close to inking a deal (Reftel). Rank and file
Deputies from both parties were not privy to the details of
the agreement or the tenor of the negotiations. The press,
however, reported leaked details of the planned
constitutional changes and political cooperation envisioned
in the potential coalition agreement. A BYuT MP who is part
of the negotiating team told us that the broad issues are
agreed to -- what remains are technical questions and, more
importantly, a continued lack of trust on both sides. End
Summary

BROAD COALITION: CLOSE, BUT NOT YET A DONE DEAL
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2. (C) Despite reports that PM Tymoshenko and Regions head
Viktor Yanukovych agreed to a broad Rada coalition and
constitutional changes, the plenary week that started June 1
has seen no official announcement on the potential coalition.
On June 2, Regions MP Dmitro Tabachnyk called for a broad
coalition in a speech from the Rada rostrum, saying that only
such a coalition could allow the Rada to take the necessary
steps to overcome the economic crisis and political malaise
affecting Ukraine.


3. (C) On June 3 BYuT MP Valeriy Pysarenko, who is involved
in the negotiations, told us that media reports were
"premature," but that the two sides were closer than they
have ever been to making a deal. He suggested that the
coalition would not likely be announced this week, but that
the two sides could finalize the details and announce the
coalition next week. Pysarenko and other contacts across
party lines reiterated that a lack of trust between BYuT and
Regions and their leadership remained the main stumbling
block to finalizing an agreement. BYuT MP Ostap Semarak
speculated that not even Tymoshenko could say at this point
whether the two sides would be able to reach final agreement.



4. (C) OU-PSD faction head Mykola Martynenko said his faction
was split over whether to join a potential broad coalition.
He told us on June 2 that if the coalition proved that it
would work for the good of the country, there could be enough
votes within OU-PSD to join. If, however, the political
marriage between BYuT and Regions served only to carve up the
country, there would be little support in his faction to take
part. OU-PSD MP Kyrylo Kulikov, a member of the current
coalition, said that his faction would not "bless" the
Tymoshenko-Yanukovych union with its participation. He said
that Tymoshenko would only want OU-PSD along to provide
political cover with her base, as a broad coalition with all
factions (except the Communists) would be more palatable to
"Orange" supporters than a BYuT-Regions coalition.

RANK AND FILE MPS IN THE DARK, BUT DETAILS LEAKED TO PRESS
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5. (U) On June 2 Ukrainska Pravda (UP) reported details of
the potential agreement. UP reported BYuT and Regions agreed
to constitutional changes to strengthen the prime minister's
position, elect a weakened president in the Rada, and extend
the current Rada convocation two years to 2014. The two
sides reportedly also agreed to move to a two round Rada
election format, with the winner of the second round
automatically receiving 226 of 450 Rada seats, and to
introduce imperative mandate into the parliament, which would
allow faction leadership to remove members who do not toe the
party line. The new constitution would also include local
administrative reform (more power to the Oblasts),judiciary
reform, and law enforcement reform.


6. (U) Concerning political cooperation, UP reported that
BYuT and Regions were negotiating a plan to cooperate through

2024. They would agree to work together in parliamentary
elections, would split ministry positions, and divide up
areas of influence around the country. PM Tymoshenko would
reportedly retain her position, with Yanukovych guaranteed
two 5-year presidential terms.


7. (C) On June 3, BYuT MP Yuriy Poluneev told us that rank
and file deputies were not privy to the details of the

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potential agreement or the progress made in negotiations. He
speculated that perhaps ten people from both sides were
intimately involved in the process -- the remaining faction
members were getting their information from the press rather
than their political leadership. Poluneev said that there
was some opposition to the potential coalition within the
ByuT faction, but that most MPs would line up behind
Tymoshenko, even if they were uncomfortable with an alliance
with Regions. Regions MP Vladimir Makeienko told us that the
majority of the Regions faction were also left in the dark by
their leadership. He said that party leaders told them that
they would know details of the agreement when the time was
right -- that time had not yet come.

YUSHCHENKO MULLS RESIGNATION TO DERAIL COALITION
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8. (U) On June 2, President Yushchenko said he would "do
everything" to prevent presidential elections in the Rada.
He said that he was not opposed to a BYuT-Regions coalition
per se, but was against "usurpation of power." Yushchenko
was rumored to be mulling resignation if the broad coalition
was announced -- BYuT and Regions representatives both said
they would welcome such a move. Article 103.5 of the
constitution requires presidential elections within 90 days
of the early termination of a president's term, which would
force BYuT and Regions to participate in a presidential
election while trying to cooperate on constitutional changes.
Ihor Popov, Deputy Head of the Presidential Secretariat,
dismissed rumors of a potential Yushchenko resignation, but
Yushchenko said he was prepared to pay "a high price" to
prevent what he termed an "anti-constitutional coup d'etat."

COMMENT
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9. (C) Lack of trust remains a key stumbling block to a
potential BYuT-Regions coalition, but contacts say that they
could potentially reach a deal to unite in the next few days.
Tymoshenko could weather a ratings hit from her Orange
constituency if the coalition forms and changes the
constitution, because she would not have to face voters for
five years. She is at risk, however, if the deal falls apart
-- especially after details of the political agreement was
leaked to the press -- as her base of support could see her
attempts to work with Regions as a betrayal. Regions appears
to be in a stronger negotiating position as they could
benefit from either scenario -- a coalition returns them to
power, and a failed coalition could damage Tymoshenko,
Yanukovych's primary competition in a direct presidential
election.

PETTIT