THIRD KLYCHKO-CHERNOVETSKYI BOUT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000691


SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: THIRD KLYCHKO-CHERNOVETSKYI BOUT?

REF: 08 KYIV 987

Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

Summary
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1. (C) World champion boxer Vitaliy Klychko, who lost two
bids for mayor of Kyiv in 2006 and 2008, hit current mayor
Chernovetskyi hard for alleged corruption in a recent meeting
with us. Although Klychko was vague about another run for
mayor, he said that his political bloc would continue to
challenge Chernovetskyi,s control over the city council.
There has been speculation that the national Rada could
attempt to remove Mayor Chernovetskyi following continued
allegations of corruption and a recent Rada commission to
determine his psychological condition. Embassy contacts,
however, do not expect his removal or another round of city
elections in the near term. Although polls show a drop in
support for Chernovetskyi, he still has a solid voter base
and reportedly has the backing of President Yushchenko.
Chernovetskyi,s critics expect him to use his clout as mayor
in the upcoming presidential elections to try to ally himself
with the next president. End Summary.

The Contenders
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2. (U) The leading political forces on the city council are
the Chernovetskyi bloc with 43 seats, PM Tymoshenko's bloc
(BYuT) with 32 seats, and the Klychko bloc with 15 seats.
The Party of Regions, with the largest faction in the
national parliament, has only six seats on the city council.
Chernovetskyi, who became mayor in 2006, delivered a blow to
Tymoshenko in his May 2008 pre-term election win over BYuT
candidate Turchynov and boxer Vitaliy Klychko, who took a
close third.


3. (C) Most observers see Klychko as Chernovetskyi,s most
serious challenger. Political Analyst Vitaliy Bala told us
that although BYuT has significant popular support in the
city, BYuT does not have a candidate who can beat the Mayor.
BYuT,s best option, he felt, would be for it to cooperate
with the other blocs on the city council to form a united
opposition. Bala believes that Klychko could knock out
Chernovetskyi in another challenge for city hall with BYuT in
his corner.

Klychko Hits Chernovetskyi Hard on Corruption
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4. (C) Vitaliy Klychko, who looked fit after his recent WBC
title defense, made many of the same points he has been
telling reporters in a recent meeting with Emboff. He
asserted that Chernovetskyi had turned the city into a family
business, appointing his wife, children, and close relatives
to key posts in the city administration. He described
rampant corruption under Chernovetskyi, saying that the
city's Soviet-era infrastructure was near collapse due to his
neglect. Klychko said that the city had reached a "point of
no return" and that new leaders were needed to replace
Chernovetskyi and his "young and cynical" supporters in the
city government.

A Third Bout?
--------------

5. (C) When asked about his intention to run for Kyiv mayor
again, Klychko ducked the question and said his German
friends tell him he should run for the Mayor of Hamburg.
However, Klychko has previously said that he feels obligated
to run against Chernovetskyi if elections are held. He told
us that his bloc is committed to taking on the mayor in the
city council. He added that his bloc would run for the
national Rada if early elections are called.

Mayor on Ropes but Not Out
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6. (C) Mayor Chernovetskyi, who has held the post since 2006,
has earned the nickname "Cosmos" and widespread condemnation
for his eccentric public behavior. There has been
speculation that the national Rada would try to remove him
from office after highly publicized corruption allegations.
The speculation was further fueled when the national Rada
formed a special commission in March 2008 to determine his
mental stability. He refused to submit to the psychological
evaluation ordered by the Rada commission countering that it
was politically motivated. Polls in recent months show that
Chernovetskyi has lost support since his reelection.
Observers attribute this to arbitrary hikes ordered by the
Mayor for public transport and utility fees and the
imposition of a widely-criticized decision to charge entry
fees at city cemeteries. However, analyst Vitaliy Bala
estimated the mayor continues to have solid support from
roughly 15 percent of Kyiv voters, mostly the elderly who

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received benefits from city social programs.

BYuT in Klychko,s Corner, but not for Early Elections
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7. (C) National Rada Deputy Volodymyr Bondarenko of BYuT
blasted Chernovetskyi for "destroying" the independence of
the city council. He accused Chernovetskyi of corrupt land
deals, nepotism, undue influence over the city-owned media,
and neglect of the city's infrastructure. Although
Chernovetskyi has lost some popular support, Bondarenko felt
the mayor would not go down easily. Bondarenko said that the
opposition lost in 2008 because it was not unified behind a
single contender. He said that BYuT was consulting with the
Klychko bloc on how best to challenge Chernovetskyi on the
city council and future elections. He strongly denied rumors
that Tymoshenko had been cooperating with the mayor.
Tymoshenko, who had engineered the 2008 Rada vote for early
elections, was opposed to new round of elections, he said.
Bondarenko explained that Tymoshenko would reconsider a push
to oust Chernovetskyi after the political and economic crises
pass - perhaps in 2010.

Mayor's Cornerman?
--------------

8. (C) Political Analyst Vitaliy Bala described the Mayor as
an opportunist who had managed to fend off challenges by the
PM and other opponents with the quiet support of the
President. Bala said that Yushchenko continued to back
Chernovetskyi because the mayor was the only effective
counterweight to BYuT in the city. Bala said that
Presidential Secretariat Chief of Staff Viktor Baloha would
block any efforts to remove Chernovetskyi until after the
presidential election. Baloha, whom Bala regards as a tough
political brawler, wants to use Kyiv,s media and
administrative resources in the presidential elections. For
his part, Chernovetskyi needs the support of the President to
pre-empt corruption investigations by his enemies, said Bala.

Dirty Fight Ahead
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9. (C) Klychko felt that Chernovetskyi would offer city
media coverage and resources to any presidential contender
who promised to keep him in city hall. Klychko reminded us
that the city-owned media did not provide Chernovetskyi,s
opponents equal coverage in the 2008 city elections - a claim
supported by media watchdogs (reftel). Analyst Bala, who
said Kyiv was still a "blank spot on the political map",
expects Kyiv to be hotly contested in the presidential
campaign. His message was that the gloves will come off in a
"dirty" presidential campaign because the top contenders have
"everything to lose."

Comment
--------------

10. (C) Klychko appears to be serious about fighting
corruption at city hall and he seemed ready to take on
Chernovetskyi. Despite a drop in polls, Chernovetskyi shows
no signs of backing away. The mayor is in a position to make
city resources available in the upcoming presidential
elections and, based on past behavior, will try to use this
to secure his own political future as presidential contenders
square off.
TAYLOR