Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KYIV545
2009-03-27 12:28:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION PROTESTS FALL SHORT OF PREDICTIONS

Tags:  PGOV PREL UP 
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VZCZCXRO3594
PP RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHKV #0545/01 0861228
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271228Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7530
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000545 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PROTESTS FALL SHORT OF PREDICTIONS

KYIV 00000545 001.2 OF 002


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SUMMARY
--------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000545

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PROTESTS FALL SHORT OF PREDICTIONS

KYIV 00000545 001.2 OF 002


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SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) The opposition Party of Regions on March 26 kicked
off a self-described wave of nationwide protests and actions
against the government with a rally in the Crimean capital of
Simferopol. The turnout at the Simferopol rally was well
below party expectations. The "nationwide" protests are
primarily limited to Regions' strongholds in southern and
eastern Ukraine and party claims of 100,000 protesters taking
to the streets around the country seem unlikely to be met.
In conjunction with the protests, Regions' leadership is
threatening to block the work of the parliament if the
government does not pass a coordinated anti-crisis package to
the party's liking.


SHADOW GOVERNMENT MEETS IN CRIMEA
--------------


2. (SBU) The opposition Party of Regions (Regions) on March
26 held opposition shadow government meetings in Simferopol
attacking President Yushchenko's and Prime Minister
Tymoshenko's handling of the economic crisis. Former Prime
Minister and Regions head Viktor Yanukovych called for
Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's immediate resignations and for
early concurrent presidential and parliamentary elections.
Yanukovych said that the shadow cabinet meeting and protest
rally in Simferopol were the start of a sustained push by
Regions to bring down the Tymoshenko government.


3. (SBU) A protest rally held after the shadow government
meeting failed to gather the 10,000 protesters that Regions
predicted. Local police report that no more than 5,000
people participated in the rally and press reports indicate
that most participants received payments of up to 150 hryvna
(approximately 19 dollars) for their attendance. While
speaking to the assembled crowd, Yanukovych quickly changed
from criticizing the government's economic plan to more
standard Regions campaign rhetoric such as opposition to NATO
membership, official recognition of the Russian language, and
friendship with Moscow.


"NATIONWIDE" PROTESTS CONCENTRATED IN THE EAST
-------------- -


4. (SBU) Regions called for nationwide protests on March 27
to mark the end of the current parliamentary coalition's
first one hundred days in power. The locations of Regions'
rallies belie their claim that this is a nationwide protest.
A third of Regions' expected turnout is to occur in the city
of Dontesk, the party's traditional stronghold. More than
two-thirds of their predicted turnout is in the three eastern
regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv. Regions did not
announce any planned protests for March 27 in Western Ukraine
or in many parts of Central Ukraine. The party said it
expected a total of 100,000 people to join it across the
country, although media reports indicate that actual turnout
is running at 50 percent or less of party predictions.
Regions expected about 15,000 participants in Kyiv, but
initial media reports put turnout at between 3,000 to 5,000.


LOCAL ANALYSTS PLAY DOWN THE PROTESTS
--------------


5. (SBU) Local political analysts dismiss the potential
effects of Regions' protests. The head of the Gorshenin
Institute Kost Bondarenko described the protests as a waste
of effort and money. Yuriy Yakymenko of the Razumkov Center
advised Regions to focus their efforts on the Rada rather
than creating "artificial" protests. An analyst from the
Open Policy Institute, Ihor Zhdanov, warned that protests
were unwise because worsening economic conditions could lead
to social unrest. Zhdanov's concerns were echoed by Myroslav
Pitysk, the Executive Director of the Ukrainian Association
of Cities, who told us that Regions approached the mayors of
Ukraine's major cities to support the March 27 protests. The
mayors refused their support because Regions could not
articulate a clear way forward after the protests and mayors
were worried that once protests were started they could prove
difficult to stop, according to Pitysk.


BLOCKING THE RADA THE NEXT STEP?
--------------


6. (SBU) Regions MP Hanna Herman told reporters that after
the protests, Regions will concentrate its efforts on the
Rada. She said that if the government does not present a
coordinated anti-crisis legislative package on March 30 and

KYIV 00000545 002.2 OF 002


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pass the legislation on March 31 then Regions MPs would
physically block the work of the Rada. The goal, she said,
would be to prevent the Rada from officially convening for 30
days so that according to Herman it could give the President
the chance to dissolve the parliament and call for pre-term
elections. Yanukovych also threatened to disrupt the Rada's
work unless Regions' demands for economic crisis legislation
and help for struggling businesses were met.

TAYLOR