Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KYIV437
2009-03-10 15:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
how-toVZCZCXRO5419 PP RUEHDBU DE RUEHKV #0437/01 0691547 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 101547Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY KYIV TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7444 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000437
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR UP
SUBJECT: YATSENYUK EYES THE PRESIDENCY
REF: A. 08 KYIV 1300
B. KYIV 427
Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4 (b,d).
Summary
--------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000437
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR UP
SUBJECT: YATSENYUK EYES THE PRESIDENCY
REF: A. 08 KYIV 1300
B. KYIV 427
Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4 (b,d).
Summary
--------------
1. (C) In a March 5 meeting, Former Rada Speaker Arseniy
Yatsenyuk expressed confidence in his chances in the upcoming
presidential election, which he predicted would "get ugly."
He claimed his nascent political project, "Front for Change,"
had attracted significant support and would serve as the
basis for a new political party. Yatsenyuk asserted that he
has "no allies, only enemies" among major politicians. He
highlighted a new poll which show him beating current
presidential front-runner, Party of Regions leader
Yanukovych, in a second round. The poll showed that
Yanukovych would defeat PM Tymoshenko by eight points.
Yatsenyuk was certain there will be no end to the rivalry
between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. He said he would not join
forces with Tymoshenko. He has "no trust" in her and regards
her as power-hungry. Yatsenyuk was more restrained in his
comments on Yushchenko, except to say he lives in a "fantasy
world." End Summary.
"Front for Change": Yatsenyuk's Presidential Platform
-------------- --------------
2. (C) In a March 5 meeting with PolCouns, 34-year old former
Rada Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk expressed confidence in his
chances in the presidential elections expected to take place
in January 2010. He reported that his nascent political
project, Front for Change, had attracted significant interest
and support since he launched it in December 2008. That
support, he said, is reflected in recent polls that show him
within 4 percent of Tymoshenko. Yatsenyuk told us that he
would decide when to declare his candidacy "given the
political situation at the time."
3. (C) Front for Change is the first step in Yatsenyuk's plan
to form his own political party. He spoke frankly about
staffing difficulties, and said he was open to support from
"anyone." While he talked of taking a grass-roots approach
to project and party-building, he did concede that he needs
people with political experience on his team. Concentrating
primarily on youth support would be a "losing strategy." He
said in particular that he would welcome collaboration with
Rada Defense Committee Chairman (and former Minister of
Defense) Anatoliy Hrytsenko However, Hrytsenko has not yet
given up on his presidential hopes even though, Yatsenyuk
pointed out, he is polling at one percent.
4. (C) Yatsenyuk told us that his Front for Change is
currently raising only about two or three thousand dollars
daily. He said he would be seeking financial support from
small and medium enterprises, Ukrainian "tycoons", and
regular Ukrainians. He estimated that he would need $30-50
million to run a viable political campaign and thought he
could raise it. He said he was actively looking to employ a
consultant from the Obama campaign and hoped to deploy
messages of hope and generational change.
Yatsenyuk's Take on His Political Rivals
--------------
5. (C) Yatsenyuk declared he has "no friends" among other
leading politicians, "just rivals and enemies." As such, he
claimed to be free of obligations to other politicians and
political groups. Yatsenyuk claimed Tymoshenko was after
power above all and that he did not trust her. He claimed
Tymoshenko would like to emulate Putin's "vertical of power"
structure in Ukraine. He termed Tymoshenko a "tough
politician" but the economic crisis had undercut her
popularity. With her support slipping, she "dreams" of early
simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections.
6. (C) Yatsenyuk described Regions chief Yanukovych as a
"phantom" political leader because he rarely makes public
decisions, pronouncements, or even appearances, and is "hard
to watch" when he does. Nevertheless, Yanukovych has the
solid support of 30 percent of the electorate. Despite that,
Yanukovych is vulnerable in the second round since most
Ukrainian's do not want a "party boss" for their president.
7. (C) Yushchenko still believes that he can win back the
support of the people, said Yatsenyuk, but he "lives in a
fantasy world" of his own making. Presidential Secretariat
Chief of Staff Baloha, with whom Yatsenyuk said he does not
speak, while clever, has been a poor strategist for
Yushchenko. Yatsenyuk attributed his dismissal as Rada
Speaker to Baloha's desire to provoke early elections.
KYIV 00000437 002 OF 003
Asked whether Yushchenko's personality had changed since his
dioxin poisoning, Yatsenyuk demurred, saying that it was "too
personal" to discuss.
Polls
--------------
8. (C) Yatsenyuk sees himself as Tymoshenko's principal rival
for votes in western and central Ukraine, and intends to
compete throughout the country. Yatsenyuk gave us the
results of a poll (since made public) that he said had been
commissioned by Party of Regions. It showed Yatsenyuk with
12.6 percent support, just 4 percent behind Tymoshenko. More
significantly, it showed Yatsenyuk as far more competitive
against Yanukovych in a potential second round match-up than
Tymoshenko. Yatsenyuk beat Yanukovych by two points;
Tymoshenko lost by eight. Yatsenyuk said his campaign plan
is to be above the divisive politics of recent years. He
noted that 26 million eastern and southern Ukrainians still
live under Russian propaganda. They don't know their
history; you can't push them too far at this stage on issues
like the use of Russian language or NATO.
Smears
--------------
9. (C) Tymoshenko and her surrogates have already started
whisper campaigns to damage Yatsenyuk, he said. Tymoshenko
is expert at "destroying" political rivals. Yatsenyuk
lamented that the presidential campaign would "get ugly," but
said that he would "answer smears". He worried that
Tymoshenko, Yushchenko and Yanukovych would "gang up" to
destroy him politically, but he also said that he benefited
from not being "one of the three."
10. (C) When asked about a persistent rumor that Front for
Change is being funded by controversial oligarch Dmitry
Firtash, Yatsenyuk sidestepped the question, saying only that
Tymoshenko was the first to publicize the rumor. According
to Yatsenyuk, Tymoshenko's "talking points" for her
surrogates have also concerned his purported Jewish heritage
and "other personal issues" (which he did not specify).
Tymoshenko Seeks to Block Media Access
--------------
11. (C) Yatsenyuk also claimed that the government's recent
attempt at seizure of the shares of television company INTER
from owner Valery Khoroshkovsky and purported backer Firtash
was an attempt to limit Yatsenyuk's exposure to the
electorate. (Note: Rada contacts told us that, in addition
to funding, Firtash was supplying media support to Yatsenyuk
through friendly coverage at INTER. Firtash was also
effusive in his praise for Yatsenyuk's political potential in
a recent meeting with the Ambassador (Ref. B)). Yatsenyuk
said that Tymoshenko had harangued management at ICTV and 5th
Channel to limit his appearances on those channels as well.
Only recently had he gotten some time on 5th channel. As for
his frequent appearances on INTER, Yatsenyuk claimed that
this was because when he went on, ratings went up. Nothing
more. Rada Speaker Lytvyn had actually appeared more
frequently, (although, he joked, without the spike in
ratings).
No Deal with Tymoshenko
--------------
12. (C) Any offer to unite with his rivals ahead of the
presidential election would simply be an effort to
marginalize him, claimed Yatsenyuk. Yatsenyuk dismissed Rada
Deputy Speaker and BYuT MP Mykola Tomenko's idea for
Tymoshenko and Yatsenyuk to work together against
Yanukovych, with Tymoshenko running for President and
Yatsenyuk taking the PM position. Similarly, in mid-February
he said that he had rejected an offer from the presidential
secretariat to become National Bank governor because the
offer was an attempt "to remove political opponents."
13. (C) Yatsenyuk told us that there was "no offer" that
Tymoshenko could make to get his support in the presidential
campaign. Instead, he posited that perhaps he could gain her
support for his presidential aspirations, although he called
such a development "highly unlikely".
14. (C) After Foreign Minister Ohryzko's ouster on March 3,
Yushchenko called Yatsenyuk to discuss the situation -- the
first time the two had talked in weeks, according to
Yatsenyuk. Yatsenyuk told us that, although Yushchenko did
not offer him the FM position, he would consider taking it if
offered because it would provide a good platform from which
to make a run at the presidency.
KYIV 00000437 003 OF 003
No Yushchenko-Tymoshenko Truce
--------------
15. (C) Yatsenyuk also dismissed any talk of a "political
truce" between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. He said that there
was "no way" that they could find consensus because they
"simply cannot get along". He said that when he was Speaker
he tried to be a bridge between the two, but it was
impossible because both Tymoshenko and Yushchenko "want to
control everything."
Comment
--------------
16. (C) Buoyed by recent polling, Yatsenyuk clearly intends
to run and is confident of his chances. If he can capture
the support of voters looking for someone (relatively) new or
who want to lodge a protest vote against the "troika," he
could be competitive. Pragmatic and intelligent, Yatsenyuk
knows he is in for a tough fight. Unlike Tymoshenko or
Yanukovych, however, he has no party or significant
organization behind him at present -- and little time to
develop them.
TAYLOR
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR UP
SUBJECT: YATSENYUK EYES THE PRESIDENCY
REF: A. 08 KYIV 1300
B. KYIV 427
Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4 (b,d).
Summary
--------------
1. (C) In a March 5 meeting, Former Rada Speaker Arseniy
Yatsenyuk expressed confidence in his chances in the upcoming
presidential election, which he predicted would "get ugly."
He claimed his nascent political project, "Front for Change,"
had attracted significant support and would serve as the
basis for a new political party. Yatsenyuk asserted that he
has "no allies, only enemies" among major politicians. He
highlighted a new poll which show him beating current
presidential front-runner, Party of Regions leader
Yanukovych, in a second round. The poll showed that
Yanukovych would defeat PM Tymoshenko by eight points.
Yatsenyuk was certain there will be no end to the rivalry
between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. He said he would not join
forces with Tymoshenko. He has "no trust" in her and regards
her as power-hungry. Yatsenyuk was more restrained in his
comments on Yushchenko, except to say he lives in a "fantasy
world." End Summary.
"Front for Change": Yatsenyuk's Presidential Platform
-------------- --------------
2. (C) In a March 5 meeting with PolCouns, 34-year old former
Rada Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk expressed confidence in his
chances in the presidential elections expected to take place
in January 2010. He reported that his nascent political
project, Front for Change, had attracted significant interest
and support since he launched it in December 2008. That
support, he said, is reflected in recent polls that show him
within 4 percent of Tymoshenko. Yatsenyuk told us that he
would decide when to declare his candidacy "given the
political situation at the time."
3. (C) Front for Change is the first step in Yatsenyuk's plan
to form his own political party. He spoke frankly about
staffing difficulties, and said he was open to support from
"anyone." While he talked of taking a grass-roots approach
to project and party-building, he did concede that he needs
people with political experience on his team. Concentrating
primarily on youth support would be a "losing strategy." He
said in particular that he would welcome collaboration with
Rada Defense Committee Chairman (and former Minister of
Defense) Anatoliy Hrytsenko However, Hrytsenko has not yet
given up on his presidential hopes even though, Yatsenyuk
pointed out, he is polling at one percent.
4. (C) Yatsenyuk told us that his Front for Change is
currently raising only about two or three thousand dollars
daily. He said he would be seeking financial support from
small and medium enterprises, Ukrainian "tycoons", and
regular Ukrainians. He estimated that he would need $30-50
million to run a viable political campaign and thought he
could raise it. He said he was actively looking to employ a
consultant from the Obama campaign and hoped to deploy
messages of hope and generational change.
Yatsenyuk's Take on His Political Rivals
--------------
5. (C) Yatsenyuk declared he has "no friends" among other
leading politicians, "just rivals and enemies." As such, he
claimed to be free of obligations to other politicians and
political groups. Yatsenyuk claimed Tymoshenko was after
power above all and that he did not trust her. He claimed
Tymoshenko would like to emulate Putin's "vertical of power"
structure in Ukraine. He termed Tymoshenko a "tough
politician" but the economic crisis had undercut her
popularity. With her support slipping, she "dreams" of early
simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections.
6. (C) Yatsenyuk described Regions chief Yanukovych as a
"phantom" political leader because he rarely makes public
decisions, pronouncements, or even appearances, and is "hard
to watch" when he does. Nevertheless, Yanukovych has the
solid support of 30 percent of the electorate. Despite that,
Yanukovych is vulnerable in the second round since most
Ukrainian's do not want a "party boss" for their president.
7. (C) Yushchenko still believes that he can win back the
support of the people, said Yatsenyuk, but he "lives in a
fantasy world" of his own making. Presidential Secretariat
Chief of Staff Baloha, with whom Yatsenyuk said he does not
speak, while clever, has been a poor strategist for
Yushchenko. Yatsenyuk attributed his dismissal as Rada
Speaker to Baloha's desire to provoke early elections.
KYIV 00000437 002 OF 003
Asked whether Yushchenko's personality had changed since his
dioxin poisoning, Yatsenyuk demurred, saying that it was "too
personal" to discuss.
Polls
--------------
8. (C) Yatsenyuk sees himself as Tymoshenko's principal rival
for votes in western and central Ukraine, and intends to
compete throughout the country. Yatsenyuk gave us the
results of a poll (since made public) that he said had been
commissioned by Party of Regions. It showed Yatsenyuk with
12.6 percent support, just 4 percent behind Tymoshenko. More
significantly, it showed Yatsenyuk as far more competitive
against Yanukovych in a potential second round match-up than
Tymoshenko. Yatsenyuk beat Yanukovych by two points;
Tymoshenko lost by eight. Yatsenyuk said his campaign plan
is to be above the divisive politics of recent years. He
noted that 26 million eastern and southern Ukrainians still
live under Russian propaganda. They don't know their
history; you can't push them too far at this stage on issues
like the use of Russian language or NATO.
Smears
--------------
9. (C) Tymoshenko and her surrogates have already started
whisper campaigns to damage Yatsenyuk, he said. Tymoshenko
is expert at "destroying" political rivals. Yatsenyuk
lamented that the presidential campaign would "get ugly," but
said that he would "answer smears". He worried that
Tymoshenko, Yushchenko and Yanukovych would "gang up" to
destroy him politically, but he also said that he benefited
from not being "one of the three."
10. (C) When asked about a persistent rumor that Front for
Change is being funded by controversial oligarch Dmitry
Firtash, Yatsenyuk sidestepped the question, saying only that
Tymoshenko was the first to publicize the rumor. According
to Yatsenyuk, Tymoshenko's "talking points" for her
surrogates have also concerned his purported Jewish heritage
and "other personal issues" (which he did not specify).
Tymoshenko Seeks to Block Media Access
--------------
11. (C) Yatsenyuk also claimed that the government's recent
attempt at seizure of the shares of television company INTER
from owner Valery Khoroshkovsky and purported backer Firtash
was an attempt to limit Yatsenyuk's exposure to the
electorate. (Note: Rada contacts told us that, in addition
to funding, Firtash was supplying media support to Yatsenyuk
through friendly coverage at INTER. Firtash was also
effusive in his praise for Yatsenyuk's political potential in
a recent meeting with the Ambassador (Ref. B)). Yatsenyuk
said that Tymoshenko had harangued management at ICTV and 5th
Channel to limit his appearances on those channels as well.
Only recently had he gotten some time on 5th channel. As for
his frequent appearances on INTER, Yatsenyuk claimed that
this was because when he went on, ratings went up. Nothing
more. Rada Speaker Lytvyn had actually appeared more
frequently, (although, he joked, without the spike in
ratings).
No Deal with Tymoshenko
--------------
12. (C) Any offer to unite with his rivals ahead of the
presidential election would simply be an effort to
marginalize him, claimed Yatsenyuk. Yatsenyuk dismissed Rada
Deputy Speaker and BYuT MP Mykola Tomenko's idea for
Tymoshenko and Yatsenyuk to work together against
Yanukovych, with Tymoshenko running for President and
Yatsenyuk taking the PM position. Similarly, in mid-February
he said that he had rejected an offer from the presidential
secretariat to become National Bank governor because the
offer was an attempt "to remove political opponents."
13. (C) Yatsenyuk told us that there was "no offer" that
Tymoshenko could make to get his support in the presidential
campaign. Instead, he posited that perhaps he could gain her
support for his presidential aspirations, although he called
such a development "highly unlikely".
14. (C) After Foreign Minister Ohryzko's ouster on March 3,
Yushchenko called Yatsenyuk to discuss the situation -- the
first time the two had talked in weeks, according to
Yatsenyuk. Yatsenyuk told us that, although Yushchenko did
not offer him the FM position, he would consider taking it if
offered because it would provide a good platform from which
to make a run at the presidency.
KYIV 00000437 003 OF 003
No Yushchenko-Tymoshenko Truce
--------------
15. (C) Yatsenyuk also dismissed any talk of a "political
truce" between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. He said that there
was "no way" that they could find consensus because they
"simply cannot get along". He said that when he was Speaker
he tried to be a bridge between the two, but it was
impossible because both Tymoshenko and Yushchenko "want to
control everything."
Comment
--------------
16. (C) Buoyed by recent polling, Yatsenyuk clearly intends
to run and is confident of his chances. If he can capture
the support of voters looking for someone (relatively) new or
who want to lodge a protest vote against the "troika," he
could be competitive. Pragmatic and intelligent, Yatsenyuk
knows he is in for a tough fight. Unlike Tymoshenko or
Yanukovych, however, he has no party or significant
organization behind him at present -- and little time to
develop them.
TAYLOR