Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KYIV38
2009-01-08 16:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:
GAS CRISIS: ORANGE RIVALS APPEAR UNITED
how-toO 081659Z JAN 09 FM AMEMBASSY KYIV TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6996 INFO CIS COLLECTIVE NATO EU COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 000038
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2019
TAGS: PREL ETRD RS UP
SUBJECT: GAS CRISIS: ORANGE RIVALS APPEAR UNITED
Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor; reasons: 1.4 (b/d).
Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 000038
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2019
TAGS: PREL ETRD RS UP
SUBJECT: GAS CRISIS: ORANGE RIVALS APPEAR UNITED
Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor; reasons: 1.4 (b/d).
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Thus far at least, Orange rivals PM Tymoshenko and
President Yushchenko have shown a unified front in the face
of the gas crisis with Russia. They signed off on a joint
statement January 1 and sent a unified team, with a
pre-agreed upon position, to Brussels January 8 for talks
with Gazprom and the EU. Even opposition Party of Regions
leader Yanukovych has, to date, been restrained in criticism.
Meanwhile, a GOU leader on Russia policy regards Putin's
actions as visceral -- and ultimately self-defeating. End
Summary.
Leaving Differences at the Pipeline's edge (for now)...
-------------- --------------
2. (C) Deputy PM Nemyria, in a conversation with the
Ambassador January 7, remarked that PM Tymoshenko and
President Yushchenko were "on the same page" regarding the
gas crisis. Nemyria would lead a team to Brussels January 8
that included Presidential Advisor for Energy Security
Sokolovskiy and DFM Yelisieiv as well as Oleh Dubyna,
Naftohaz Chairman. The Presidency and Cabinet of Ministers
had agreed on a negotiating position -- conveyed as well in a
joint letter Nemyria said they would present to European
Commission President Barroso -- with three main points:
-- Russia must immediately resume gas flow.
-- EU representatives should take part in talks.
-- EU technicians should be deployed at borders to monitor
gas flows.
3. (C) While he did not elaborate, Nemyria did admit that
Yushchenko had undercut negotiations with the Russians on
December 31 by calling back the Ukrainian team.
4. (SBU) Following the failure of the two sides to reach
agreement, Tymoshenko and Yushchenko issued a joint statement
January 1 outlining a common GOU position. A fundamental
point was that with the fall in the price of oil, Gazprom's
earlier offer of $250 tcm was at or near market level while
the existing transit fee of $1.7 was half that of the Central
European market.
Yanukovych Quiescent - thus far
--------------
5. (SBU) Opposition Party of Regions leader Viktor
Yanukovych, who has long criticized Orange forces for
ineptitude in their handling of relations with Russia, has
remained largely silent thus far regarding the gas crisis.
While lambasting the government -- Tymoshenko in particular
-- for incompetence on the economy in a TV interview January
6, Yanukovych did not offer any specific criticism of the
government's handing of the gas crisis. He called only for
early Rada attention to the matter.
Thoughts on Putin
--------------
6. (C) Konstantin Gryshenko, First Deputy Secretary of the
National Security and Defense Council who serves concurrently
as Ambassador to Russia, contacted the Ambassador January 7.
Gryshenko predicted that the gas crisis would get even more
unpleasant before it is over. As made clear from Putin's
performance in his carefully-staged TV interviews with
Gazprom's Miller, the decision to cut off the gas was clearly
Putin's. Gryshenko termed it an act of "political
emotionalism" designed to show "who has the stick."
7. (C) Gryshenko predicted Putin's visceral reaction would
scare European consumers and result in "big trouble" for
Russia by encouraging the Europeans to seek other long-term
sources of supply. This would hurt Ukraine in the long-run
too "because we need the transit revenues."
Comment
--------------
8. (C) The Rada comes back in session January 13, so the
hiatus in criticism from the Party of Regions (and others)
may soon come to an end. Nonetheless, the cooperation to
date on this issue between bitter rivals Tymoshenko and
Yushchenko, and their teams, has been notable. It follows a
common position in December when the two rivals sent a joint
letter to the IMF seeking flexibility in the IMF program.
How long this newfound unity will last (if it lasts at all)
is an open question, but, as Samuel Johnson said, "nothing
focuses the mind like a hanging."
TAYLOR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2019
TAGS: PREL ETRD RS UP
SUBJECT: GAS CRISIS: ORANGE RIVALS APPEAR UNITED
Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor; reasons: 1.4 (b/d).
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Thus far at least, Orange rivals PM Tymoshenko and
President Yushchenko have shown a unified front in the face
of the gas crisis with Russia. They signed off on a joint
statement January 1 and sent a unified team, with a
pre-agreed upon position, to Brussels January 8 for talks
with Gazprom and the EU. Even opposition Party of Regions
leader Yanukovych has, to date, been restrained in criticism.
Meanwhile, a GOU leader on Russia policy regards Putin's
actions as visceral -- and ultimately self-defeating. End
Summary.
Leaving Differences at the Pipeline's edge (for now)...
-------------- --------------
2. (C) Deputy PM Nemyria, in a conversation with the
Ambassador January 7, remarked that PM Tymoshenko and
President Yushchenko were "on the same page" regarding the
gas crisis. Nemyria would lead a team to Brussels January 8
that included Presidential Advisor for Energy Security
Sokolovskiy and DFM Yelisieiv as well as Oleh Dubyna,
Naftohaz Chairman. The Presidency and Cabinet of Ministers
had agreed on a negotiating position -- conveyed as well in a
joint letter Nemyria said they would present to European
Commission President Barroso -- with three main points:
-- Russia must immediately resume gas flow.
-- EU representatives should take part in talks.
-- EU technicians should be deployed at borders to monitor
gas flows.
3. (C) While he did not elaborate, Nemyria did admit that
Yushchenko had undercut negotiations with the Russians on
December 31 by calling back the Ukrainian team.
4. (SBU) Following the failure of the two sides to reach
agreement, Tymoshenko and Yushchenko issued a joint statement
January 1 outlining a common GOU position. A fundamental
point was that with the fall in the price of oil, Gazprom's
earlier offer of $250 tcm was at or near market level while
the existing transit fee of $1.7 was half that of the Central
European market.
Yanukovych Quiescent - thus far
--------------
5. (SBU) Opposition Party of Regions leader Viktor
Yanukovych, who has long criticized Orange forces for
ineptitude in their handling of relations with Russia, has
remained largely silent thus far regarding the gas crisis.
While lambasting the government -- Tymoshenko in particular
-- for incompetence on the economy in a TV interview January
6, Yanukovych did not offer any specific criticism of the
government's handing of the gas crisis. He called only for
early Rada attention to the matter.
Thoughts on Putin
--------------
6. (C) Konstantin Gryshenko, First Deputy Secretary of the
National Security and Defense Council who serves concurrently
as Ambassador to Russia, contacted the Ambassador January 7.
Gryshenko predicted that the gas crisis would get even more
unpleasant before it is over. As made clear from Putin's
performance in his carefully-staged TV interviews with
Gazprom's Miller, the decision to cut off the gas was clearly
Putin's. Gryshenko termed it an act of "political
emotionalism" designed to show "who has the stick."
7. (C) Gryshenko predicted Putin's visceral reaction would
scare European consumers and result in "big trouble" for
Russia by encouraging the Europeans to seek other long-term
sources of supply. This would hurt Ukraine in the long-run
too "because we need the transit revenues."
Comment
--------------
8. (C) The Rada comes back in session January 13, so the
hiatus in criticism from the Party of Regions (and others)
may soon come to an end. Nonetheless, the cooperation to
date on this issue between bitter rivals Tymoshenko and
Yushchenko, and their teams, has been notable. It follows a
common position in December when the two rivals sent a joint
letter to the IMF seeking flexibility in the IMF program.
How long this newfound unity will last (if it lasts at all)
is an open question, but, as Samuel Johnson said, "nothing
focuses the mind like a hanging."
TAYLOR