BHARAT BALLOT 09: CASTE, GOVERNANCE AND DEVELOPMENT TO

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TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: CASTE, GOVERNANCE AND DEVELOPMENT TO
DETERMINE PARLIAMENT ELECTION IN BIHAR

REF: KOLKATA 35

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1. (SBU) Summary. Politics in Bihar is dominated by regional
parties pushing their caste interests. Bihar's Chief Minister
(CM) Nitish Kumar heads the Janata Dal-United (JDU) party,
presently a member of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA),
and is winning over Bihar's poorest and lowest caste citizens
through new affirmative action initiatives and a focus on
governance and development. The NDA is helped by Kumar's image
as an effective CM after 15 years of perceived government
mismanagement under Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal
(RJD) administration. Indian National Congress's (INC) failure
to negotiate a seat sharing deal with the RJD and Ram Vilas
Paswan's Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) does not bode well for the
United Progressive Alliance's (UPA) and may result in an
influential "Fourth Front" swing vote in determining the next
coalition government. End summary.


2. (U) Bihar is India's third most populous state, with 83
million people and 40 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats (lower house of
parliament). Polling will be conducted in four phases on April
16, 23, 30 and May 7. Bihar, often cited as India's poorest and
least developed state, has large Hindu and Muslim communities
(82 and 16.5 percent of the population),with small numbers of
Buddhists, Jains and Sikhs. PolOff drew on meetings with
politicians, party members, journalists, NGOs, and
businesspersons in Bihar (Patna and Gaya) from March 23-27 to
prepare this report.

Bihar's History of Caste Politics

3. (U) At the time of India's Independence in 1947, Bihar's
political leadership was dominated by upper caste Hindus (mainly
Brahmins and Thakurs) who now constitute approximately 13
percent of the population and represent the landowning ruling
elite. This group has traditionally aligned with the Congress.
The major low caste communities include the Yadavs (14 percent
of Bihar's population),Paswans (Eight percent) and the Kurmis
(five percent). (Note: figures given for caste/community
populations are very rough estimates). In 1979, the Janata
Party-led national government appointed the Mandal Commission to
design an affirmative action program based on caste, social and
economic backwardness.


4. (U) The Janata Party disintegrated with its activist mentor
Jaya Prakash Narain's death in 1979. In 1988, India's
anti-Congress secular leaders united to form the Janata Dal
(JD). In 1990, Prime Minister V.P. Singh (leading the JD
government in Delhi) implemented the Mandal Commission's
recommendations, ushering in caste-based reservations in
government jobs and education. This enabling legislation
signaled the end of Bihar's caste coalition and the emergence of
new parties breaking from JD, including the RJD, the LJP and the
Samata Party which was later reborn as JDU. These parties share
certain common traits. All remain caste-based parties led by
community leaders and Narain protigis, including Lalu Prasad
Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and current CM Nitish Kumar.
Mandal-empowered low caste Biharis shifted their votes from the
national parties to these community leaders, leaving little
political space for national parties like the Congress and the
BJP.

Parties and Personalities


5. (SBU) In 1990, Lalu Prasad Yadav swept Bihar's state
assembly elections, winning 122 out of 324 state assembly seats
due to strong support from Yadav and Muslim voters. (The new
state of Jharkhand was created out of Bihar in 2000. Post
bifurcation, Bihar assembly's strength is now 243 seats.) Lalu
Prasad, who went on to serve as CM for seven years, is widely
viewed as a corrupt and ineffective legislator. In 1997, facing
serious corruption charges, he was forced to resign and
reportedly had become such a liability for the JD that he was
forced to split from the party to form his own political party,
the RJD. Despite his poor reputation, contacts credit Lalu
Prasad for the RJD's success in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections
(RJD won 21 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats) and report that his
reward was the influential and financially lucrative post of
Union Minister of Railways. Under Prasad's leadership, Indian
Railways has had a significant financial turnaround and contacts
believe that Prasad has effectively used the position to
increase his influence in Bihar politics. His wife, Rabri Devi,
is currently the leader of the opposition in the state assembly.



6. (SBU) In 2000, Ram Vilas Paswan, a leader from the Paswan low
caste community, split from the JDU and formed the regional
party LJP. The split was an outcome of the power struggle

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between Paswan and Lalu Prasad Yadav whose traditional support
base is the Paswan caste members and Muslims. To date, Paswan
has not won major support in the states, winning only 4 Lok
Sabha seats in 2004 and ten state assembly seats in 2005.


7. (SBU) In 2003, Nitish Kumar, a member of low caste Kurmi
community, formed yet another JD break away party, the JDU. In
2005, he formed an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP),who has traditionally won the votes of Bihar's upper
castes, and together they won 143 out of 243 state assembly
seats. Both fans and critics acknowledge Kumar's positive
effects on development and governance in Bihar, so much so that
some people now speak of a "pre-Nitish" and "post-Nitish" Bihar
(see Reftel). Contacts told PolOff that over the past three
years, Kumar has steadily expanded his support base across a
wide range of social and religious communities. He introduced a
series of affirmative action schemes for lower castes, appointed
two Muslims from poor communities to the Rajya Sabha (upper
house of parliament),and introduced a 50 percent female
reservation in the three-tiered panchayat (local governance
bodies) system. A Patna-based representative of the
international organization UNICEF remarked on its positive
collaboration with state civil servants and improvements in
social development indicators. Representatives from NGOs and
the business community in Gaya, a district three hours south of
Patna, also confirmed the popular perception of the positive
developments made by the Kumar state government.

The Power of Development and Governance


8. (SBU) While local political analysts opine that caste may
still be the best predictor of voting behavior in Bihar, there
is general consensus that development and governance will
influence the Lok Sabha election. A CNN reporter in the state
capitol of Patna told PolOff that "for the first time an issue
other than caste [governance and development] will be considered
in the election." Contacts predict that this shift will benefit
the NDA. Kumar has taken these issues to the grassroots. Prior
leaders may have also enjoyed mass appeal, but implementation of
electoral promises lagged. Since January 2009, Kumar has been
reaching out to Bihar's villagers through his Vikas Yatra
(development march). During such tours, he stops at a village
every 25-30 km and spends a few hours meeting residents before
reviewing development schemes with officials. These outreach
programs can potentially upset caste equations.

Comment


9. (SBU) The RJD and LJP's decision to offer just three Lok
Sabha seats to the INC, and the subsequent tie up with the
Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh are clear signs of an
effort to consolidate the Yadav, Dalit and Muslim votes and
create a distance with the national party. But if RJD and LJP
have sought independence from their erstwhile UPA ally in the
pre-poll period, Nitish Kumar has hinted at the possibility of a
post-election reworking of alliances. "We are now in NDA. Who
knows where we will be after the elections," Kumar remarked in a
recent television interview. The INC's decision to contest all
of Bihar's 40 parliamentary seats may present the party the
opportunity to embark on a long journey to rebuild its presence
in this part of the predominantly Hindi-speaking heartland. But
it will also convert Bihar's elections into a triangular
contest, which will work in favor of Nitish Kumar. In Bihar,
similar to as in Orissa, regional parties, unable to predict
post electoral outcomes, are keeping their alliance options open.


10. (SBU) Caste will continue to play the predominant role in
Bihar's Lok Sabha election, ensuring that parties such as RJD,
LJP and SP win some seats. With Kumar making inroads in Bihar's
caste politics with his affirmative action and good governance
programs, the state's traditional voting patterns have become
less certain. And with Kumar also hinting that he too can dump
his NDA ally - as Naveen Patnaik did in Orissa - there is no
clear advantage to any of the two national parties. Even the
potentially powerful RJD-LJP- Samajwadi "Fourth Front" can
become important kingmaker at the center if it can protect its
caste alignment.
PAYNE