ASSAM: ULFA AND NDFB MAIN SUSPECTS IN OCTOBER 30 TERRORIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000056

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS
NSC FOR GOEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/5/2019
TAGS: PTER PGOV PREL IN BG
SUBJECT: ASSAM: ULFA AND NDFB MAIN SUSPECTS IN OCTOBER 30 TERRORIST
ATTACKS

REF: KOLKATA 22

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CLASSIFIED BY: Beth Payne, Consul General, , .
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Assam's Chief Minister confirmed that the
separatist groups United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and
National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) are the main
suspects in the October 30, 2008 terrorist attacks in Guwahati
(Reftel). Assam officials, who believe that the attacks were
executed by groups operating in the state, suspect that elements
residing in Bangladesh were also involved. The actual
perpetrators of the attack remain at large. The October 30
terrorist attacks may represent a shift in tactics by insurgent
groups, who appear to be changing their targets from government
or security institutions and personnel to civilians. Foreigners
have not been targeted, wounded, or killed in any of the
terrorist attacks in Assam. End summary.


2. (C) On January 29, Congen met with Assam Chief Minister Tarun
Gogoi, the senior most elected official in the northeastern
Indian state, and discussed the investigation into the October
30, 2008 terrorist attacks and the general law and order
situation in the state. According to Gogoi, evidence collected
by the state of Assam and handed over to the Central Bureau of
Investigation suggests the involvement of ULFA and NDFB in the
attacks. Gogoi assured ConGen that foreigners have not been
specifically targeted in any of the terrorist attacks in Assam.

The Bangladesh Connection


3. (C) According to Gogoi, Indian intelligence inputs (not
shared with post) also indicate that the perpetrators of the
attacks may have been in touch with elements residing in
Bangladesh. Gogoi noted that several senior leaders of
separatist and insurgent groups operating in Assam reside in
Bangladesh. (The GOI has for the last couple of years sought
the extradition of Anup Chetia, an ULFA leader who filed for
political asylum after completing his prison sentence in
Bangladesh.) Assam Home Secretary R.K. Bora, a senior
bureaucrat responsible for law and order in the state, told
ConGen that leaders of the insurgent groups in Assam, operating
from Bangladesh may have been cultivated by Bangladeshi or
Pakistani intelligence services to conduct terrorist attacks in
India to destabilize the country.

Law and Order in the State


4. (C) The NDFB and two of the three militant companies of the
ULFA are currently observing a ceasefire with the GOI.
According to Assam Chief Secretary P.C. Sharma, the senior civil
servant in the state government, the Indian Army and state
security personnel have focused their counter-insurgency
operations in Lower Assam. He stated that there is no evidence
of Harkat ul Jehadi Islami (HUJI) and Lashkar e Toiba (LeT)
direct involvement in any terrorist activity in the state,
although they are monitoring the situation. He also ruled out
the presence of any Maoist groups (left-leaning militant
extremists) in the state. He is concerned that the October 30
attacks may represent a paradigm shift in the patterns of
violence as insurgent and separatist groups change their focus
from protected government or security forces institution and
personnel to more vulnerable civilian targets. He speculated
that attacks on the civilian population were more effective in
"terrorizing the population" making it easier for the separatist
groups to extort money to fund their insurgent activities.

Comment


5. (C) While it appears that ULFA and NDFB were behind the
October 30 terrorist attacks, it is still unclear whether they
were assisted by elements operating out of Bangladesh. Although
many officials and journalists repeat the assumption that
foreign organizations were behind the attacks, no one offered
ConGen concrete evidence of this during her visit to Assam. If
insurgent groups have, in fact, shifted their targets to include
more terrorist attacks against the civilian population,
maintaining law and order in the state will be challenge for the
government and could impact the stability of the entire
Northeast since Assam, which is the second largest state in
northeast India and the most strategic, is the economic center
of the Northeast and an important transit link with "mainland"
India. The post-Mumbai central government interest in
counterterrorism and improved law and order capabilities,

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combined with improved bilateral ties and cooperation with
Bangladesh, may assist the state government in addressing the
challenges posed by insurgent groups.
PAYNE