A POLITICAL CRISIS IN JHARKHAND AS PRELUDE TO THE NATIONAL

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: A POLITICAL CRISIS IN JHARKHAND AS PRELUDE TO THE NATIONAL
ELECTIONS

REF: A. A) 08 KOLKATA 229

B. B) 08 KOLKATA 295

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1. (SBU) Summary: On January 19, the Government of India's (GoI)
Cabinet recommended President's rule and the suspension of the
state assembly in the eastern state of Jharkhand after state
legislators could not agree on a consensus candidate for Chief
Minister. A state-level political battle for control that would
have played out in February 2010 is being fought now against the
backdrop of upcoming national parliamentary elections in Spring

2009. The two questions are: who will be Chief Minister and
when will the state elections be held. However, given the
United Progressive Alliance's (UPA) majority in both parliament
and the state assembly, if a consensus candidate cannot be found
and a new state government formed in the next couple of weeks,
we should expect the continuation of President's Rule and no new
state elections before the national elections this spring. If
state elections were held today, the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) appears well positioned to increase the number of state
assembly seats in Jharkhand and generate a bit of positive
momentum for the party in the upcoming national elections. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) On January 12, Shibu Soren resigned as Chief Minister
following his failure to win election to the state assembly
within six months of assuming office. Since the Chief Minister
is constitutionally required to be a member of the state
legislator, Soren ran for a seat in the Tamar constituency where
the death of the former legislator forced a by-election. He
lost to Jharkhand Party legislator Raja Peter and was obliged to
resign as Chief Minister thereby triggering the political
crisis. In August 2008, Madhu Koda, an independent candidate
backed by the UPA, stepped down to allow Soren, president of the
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM),to become Chief Minister. At the
time, it was widely believed that Congress gave Soren the Chief
Minister position as a political quid pro quo in exchange for
his support - he controls five JMM parliamentarians - for the
UPA in the July 22, 2008 vote of confidence over the US-India
civilian-nuclear deal (Ref A).

Who Will Be Chief Minister?


3. (SBU) Following Soren's resignation, the UPA partners in
Jharkhand have been unable to agree on a consensus candidate for
the chief minister position. While the BJP is the largest party
in the state assembly (29 of 81 seats),the JMM (17),Congress
Party (9) and the Rastriya Janata Dal - (7) along with other
smaller parties, were previously able to form a government under
the UPA banner. According to contacts, Soren insisted on a JMM
candidate, Champai Soren (no relation),for the Chief Minister
position. On the other hand, RJD party president and
influential Union Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav backed
Koda's return as Chief Minister. According to a well-informed
media contact, the Congress Party does not want to put forward a
Chief Minister candidate at this time, as it does not want to be
seen as profiting from the political crisis.


4. (U) With UPA unable to find a consensus candidate, the GoI
Cabinet recommended President's rule and suspended the state
assembly on January 19. In the Indian parliamentary system,
President's Rule under suspended animation provides state
legislators with additional time to form a government or, if
unsuccessful, to initiate new assembly elections. President's
Rule can be also be imposed after dissolution of the assembly -
in which case there cannot be a popularly elected government
until after the next assembly elections. Under President's
Rule, the Governor becomes the chief executive leading civil
servants deputed from the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs. The
state government and legislators cede executive and legislative
responsibilities.

When Will State Elections Be Held?


5. (SBU) Individuals and parties are split not only as to who
should lead the government of Jharkhand, but when state
elections should be held. According to Jharkhand Congress
General Secretary Manishankar, state legislators are uniformly
interested in retaining their seats and finishing their terms in
February 2010. National parliamentarians from Jharkhand would
also like to see national elections precede state elections as
it provides defeated national candidates with a later option of
contesting state elections. The regional parties are focused on
the Chief Minister position and forming a Jharkhand state
government whereas, the two national parties, Congress and the
BJP, view the Jharkhand political crisis as a prelude to the
2009 National Elections and are looking to extract maximum
political gain from the situation. According to a well-informed
media contact, the Congress Party would like to showcase its
ability to govern and address flagrant corruption. In recent
days, there have been several high profile transfers in the

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anti-corruption department to better investigate ongoing
corruption cases, which may be of concern to several state
legislators in this notoriously corrupt state. The Congress
Party would like to maintain UPA unity and avoid a possible poor
showing at early state elections as it would be interpreted as a
sign of weakness for the party in the national elections. On
the other hand, the BJP is eager to emphasize cracks within the
UPA and its inability to form a government. According to senior
BJP state legislator Sarayu Rai the party wants immediate state
elections in which it would expect to gain seats (Ref B).

Comment


6. (SBU) Jharkhand's latest political crisis has spotlighted the
state in the run up to the national elections. While UPA
legislators are anxious to find a consensus candidate in order
to avoid early state assembly elections, a suitable candidate
remains elusive. BJP and its allies relish the disagreement
within the UPA and favor immediate state assembly elections
since it gives them an opportunity to gain seats and demonstrate
their popularity before the general election. Since Congress
would probably benefit politically from President's Rule and
lose politically if state assembly elections are held before the
national elections, they are likely to try to maintain
President's rule and put off state elections until after the
national elections in Spring 2009.
PAYNE