THE BATTLE FOR BENGAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000164

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER PSEC IN
SUBJECT: THE BATTLE FOR BENGAL

REF: A. Kolkata 162

B. KOLKATA 144

C. KOLKATA 78

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1. (SBU) Summary: West Bengal's Communist Party of
India-Marxist (CPI-M) dominated Left Front is still reeling from
its poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls (see Reftels). The
perfect storm of issues appears to have worked against the Left
Front. Some CPI-M leaders believe the party lost support when
it withdrew support from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
over the U.S.-India nuclear deal. Other party leaders blame
CPI-M's attempt to form a Third Front coalition for its defeat.
Others point to a leadership crisis and infighting within CPI-M,
the successful merger of Congress and All India Trinamul
Congress (AITC) votes, and CPI-M's growing unpopularity among
Muslim and rural populations. With state assembly elections in
2011, the Lok Sabha election was just the opening volley in the
battle for Bengal, with AITC the clear victor in this round.
Over the next two years, this conflict will most likely be
fraught with political agitations sometimes leading to violence,
which does not bode well for West Bengal's economic growth
prospects. End summary.

2. (U) In this year's parliamentary elections, West Bengal's
CPI-M dominated Left Front won only 15 out of 42 Lok Sabha
seats, a record loss for a coalition that has ruled the state
for over 30 years and had exerted tight political control over
the state during this time. The Indian National Congress (INC),
the AITC and the Socialist Unity Center of India (SUCI) together
captured an unexpected 26 seats, leaving one seat for the
Bharatiya Janata Party. According to Election Commission
records, the Left won 43 percent of the total votes, down from
49 percent in the 2006 state assembly polls (Reftel B).
Bengal CPI-M Leaders Blame the Central Party

3. (SBU) Most Bengali CPI-M contacts blame the central
committee's national policies for the defeat. Shishir Bajoria,
known as the millionaire Marxist and a close advisor to party
leaders, told ConGen that withdrawal from the UPA and formation
of a Third Front was a mistake. He speculated that voters were
forced to choose between a stable central government led by INC
or instability with a patchwork ruling coalition if they opted
for regional parties. Bajoria noted that the Left Front did
particularly poorly among new voters, acknowledging that the
Left's anti-American campaigning may have backfired with young
voters. Defeated CPI-M MP Prashanta Pradhan also blamed the
central party's focus on the nuclear deal, telling the press
that the deal was extremely complex and that the poor and the
farmers never understood why the party wanted to topple the
government. Defeated CPI-M MP Mohammad Salim told PolFSN that a
combination of factors worked against the Left in the Lok Sabha
polls, including national issues and unpopular local policies.
Has the Bengal CPI-M Lost Its Base?

4. (SBU) Contacts in political parties, the media and
think-tank organizations are unanimous in the opinion that the
2007-2008 Nandigram and Singur resistance movements against the
GOWB's acquisition of agricultural land for industry turned the
rural population against the CPI-M (Reftel C). West Bengal's
Land and Land Reforms Minister Abdur Rezzak Mollah told the
press that the land acquisition issue was "like a disease which
starts corroding the body very fast and destroys immunity." He
complained that CPI-M leadership did not listen when he warned
against land acquisition, noting that land is the most important
thing to farmers -- they value it more than their sons and
daughters. He argued that the party should not acquire fertile
land, only dry barren land.

5. (SBU) A Left-watcher from Anandabazar Patrika (ABP) daily
observed that most CPI-M leaders are from wealthy,
well-connected families and joined the party as students. Most
have no connection to the rural or working classes. Mollah
complained that CPI-M has appointed local party leaders who do
not represent the interests of the farmers, but instead act "as
the lords of their areas." In contrast, analysts emphasize that
AITC leader Mamata Banerjee effectively won over the poor with
her simple image and election slogans like "Ma Mati Manush"
(Note: the slogan "the Mother, the Land, the People" comes from
a popular folk play well known in rural communities. End note.)
According to AITC contacts, the party focused on winning over
the rural voters, establishing a special cell within the party
to mobilize lower caste and minority populations. AITC's
election manifesto highlighted pro-farmer and pro-poor policies,
opposing Foreign Direct Investment, Special Economic Zones and
the acquisition of fertile land for industry. Residents in
rural and Muslim-dominated Murshidabad district, in which INC
now has a solid majority of votes, credited Finance Minister
Pranab Mukherjee with extensive road repairs completed just
before the elections. The head of a large madrassa noted that
Mukherjee had provided funds for the school from his own pocket,
contrasting this to the lack of any support from the GOWB.
Mainstream Media Turns Against CPI-M

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6. (SBU) Bajoria complained to ConGen that the news media was
blatantly anti-CPI-M in this election campaign. ABP, the most
widely read Bengali newspaper in the state and once a strong
supporter of Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's economic
reforms, turned against the CPI-M after AITC and INC forged
their political alliance. Sumit Das Gupta (protect),editor of
the Metro section of the Telegraph, ABP's English newspaper,
told ConGen that ABP's owner, Aveek Sarkar, was actively engaged
in setting the tone of ABP's reporting during the elections and
the reporting was intentionally anti-CPI-M. ABP's popular news
channel Star Ananda effectively telecast anti-Left movements in
Nandigram and Singur along with projecting Mamata Banerjee's
formidable anti-Left image. Rathikanta Basu, owner of Tara TV,
told ConGen that he began the anti-CPI-M shift by being the
first to provide live telecasts of events in Nandigram in 2008.
He unabashedly acknowledged that his goal is to remove CPI-M
from power and that he is using his media company to assist.
Analyst Sabyasachi B. Roychaudhuri noted that, in contrast,
CPI-M channels like Chabbis Ghanta and Akaash Bangla failed to
impress viewers with their interpretations of the opposition's
movements.
And so the Battle Continues

7. (SBU) Immediately after election results, press reported
multiple incidents of violence between CPI-M and AITC workers.
According media reports, the CPI-M stronghold of Khejuri village
in Nandigram area fell to violent and jubilant AITC workers
immediately after election results were announced. Villagers
told journalists they were intimidated by the option to either
join AITC or vacate the area. AITC workers, under directions
from new AITC MP Suvendhu Adhikary, raided CPI-M premises and
recovered hoarded arms which were handed over to the police.
Maoist violence in Lalgarh has intensified and may be
politically motivated (Reftel A). The agitation for a separate
Gorkhaland in North Bengal also intensified and a Gorkha
Janamukti Morcha leader told PolFSN that they are demanding
local panchayat elections at village, district and
sub-divisional level. (Note: Darjeeling is the only district in
West Bengal that did not had panchayat elections in 2008).

8. (SBU) The next round of elections are 19 municipal elections
in several different state districts. Several state assembly
seats are vacant with bi-elections due by the end of 2009. In
Spring 2010, elections will be held for the Kolkata Municipal
Corporation, West Bengal's largest municipal body. AITC MP
Somen Mitra expressed apprehension that these small elections
will spark even more political violence which could degenerate
over time into progressive chaos over the next few years.
Murshidibad District Magistrate told ConGen that violent clashes
among a highly politically aware rural population are now a
daily occurrence and he expects it to continue until assembly
elections.
Comment

9. (SBU) There is only one issue now in West Bengal - the
battle for control of the state. Every other issue - Maoist
violence, industrialization, relief for cyclone victims,
Gorkhaland agitation -- will be viewed by politicians, the news
media and the general population through the lens of state
assembly elections. As Railways Minister, Banerjee will focus
on initiatives that improve AITC's image in West Bengal and will
most likely oppose any policies that could be viewed as
anti-farmer. Despite her public announcement on June 17 that
she does not support violence, it will be difficult for her to
rein in the culture of violence that has prevailed in West
Bengal for the past three decades.

10. (SBU) The CPI-M is in crisis internally, unable to fathom
its future policies and course of action. At the government
level too, decisiveness is not evident. The party can only wait
to see how Banerjee handles the dichotomy of her supporters
indulging in violence and her official position of
responsibility at a national level. For the 2011 state assembly
elections, both the Left and the opposition have a fair chance
of success. If AITC fails to prove itself as a party with
vision and discipline after winning the national polls, voters
may turn to the devil they know from three decades of
heavy-handed rule - the Left. Uncertainty and inaction by a
government besieged by protests and violence in several areas
may put development on the back-burner for the time being. End
comment.
PAYNE