WEST BENGAL'S "LEFT" - OUT IN THE COLD

UNCLAS KOLKATA 000144

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INSB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: WEST BENGAL'S "LEFT" - OUT IN THE COLD

REF: KOLKATA 132


1. (SBU) The Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M)
dominated Left Front in West Bengal is currently examining the
reasons for the disastrous parliamentary election results, which
saw its seat tally reduced from 35 to 15, the lowest since its
came to power in 1977. Party members are divided, both
according to personal allegiances and ideological differences as
to where the party went wrong. State leaders tend to blame the
party's national level "mistakes" such as the Left's withdrawal
from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government or the
failed marketing of the faulty product that was the "Third
Front". Others view state level "mistakes" such as forcible
land acquisition for industry and departure from some of the
party's pro-poor policies of the past as reasons for the
electoral debacle. In West Bengal, as in the rest of eastern
India, local, rather than national, politics played a decisive
factor in the 2009 parliamentary elections (See Reftel).


2. (SBU) Trinamool supremo and new Railways Minister Mamata
Banerjee has achieved what no other political leader in West
Bengal has been able to do in 32 years - shatter the illusion of
the CPI-M's invincibility - and is riding a increasing wave of
momentum. She successfully ran an opposition campaign with a
message of "change" and opposition to forcible land acquisition
for industry. Her campaign was aided by a tactical pre-poll
alliance with Congress. The CPI-M had alienated traditional
supporters (farmers and Muslims) through aggressive
industrialization policies, complemented by weak development
initiatives, particularly in rural or socioeconomically
disadvantaged areas. The 2009 parliamentary elections may have
been the first tolling of the CPI-M's death bell, internally
prompting considerable soul-searching and perhaps its transition
into more of a social democratic party. Portions of the
humbled and vulnerable Left, whose "anti-US imperialism" plank
failed to pay electoral dividends, may also be more receptive of
the US's "enhanced strategic partnership" with India.


3. (SBU) If the Left is to remain politically relevant, it will
have to decide upon a way forward with an appropriate leader and
a strategy to confront the upcoming political tests: municipal
and state assembly by-elections in 2009, Kolkata city elections
in 2010, and the real prize - the state assembly - in 2011.
Regardless of the CPI-M's future course of action, what is clear
is that Banerjee will utilize her position as a minister and UPA
ally at the Center to govern, direct central funds to West
Bengal, and seize any opportunity to make her case for change.

TAYLOR