BHARAT BALLOT 2009: UPA DISCORD AND ANTI-INCUMBENCY FAVOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KOLKATA 000105

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EMIN IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 2009: UPA DISCORD AND ANTI-INCUMBENCY FAVOR
BJP IN JHARKHAND

REF: A. A) KOLKATA 19

B. B) KOLKATA 97

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1. (SBU) Summary: Since the mineral-rich tribal state of
Jharkhand was carved out of the eastern Indian state of Bihar in
2000, it has been plagued by a string of poorly performing
governments and political instability. Discord within the
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and underlying anti-incumbency
sentiments are promising signals in the parliamentary elections
for the dominant national party in the state's legislative
assembly, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The state Congress
Party has all-but-publicly-announced its break with the waning
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). With political parties weak and
party discipline lacking, votes are likely to be scattered in a
multi-cornered contest. While Maoists are alleged to have a
presence of differing degree throughout the state, security was
not cited as a primary election issue to PolOFF in his tour
through Jamshedpur and the state capital of Ranchi from April 6
- 9, where he met with a cross-section of politicians, business
leaders, mining representatives, journalists and NGO
representatives. Voting in Jharkhand's 14 parliamentary
constituencies took/takes place on April 16 and 23 and results
of these, along with India's 529 other constituencies, will be
announced on May 16. End Summary.

A Mineral Rich State with Industrialization Prospects


2. (U) In 2000, Jharkhand was carved out of the eastern Indian
state of Bihar, thereby becoming India's 28th state and
satisfying a tribal aspiration for statehood. The bifurcation
of Bihar created one of India's richest mineral states, with
almost 40 percent of the country's mineral resources, including
sizable coal, copper, bauxite, uranium and mica deposits.
Jharkhand is a densely forested state - in fact in the local
language Jharkhand roughly translates to "Forested Area". While
more than 80 percent of the state is involved with agriculture,
the sector contributes only 13 percent of the state's domestic
product. Mining and heavy industry are significant contributors
to the state's domestic product and the state's share of mining
royalties is a perennial topic amongst Jharkhand's political
classes. Jamshedpur is the state's premier industrial town,
often heralded as the original core of India's
industrialization, with India's oldest steel plant, Tata Steel,
and a large vehicle manufacturing facility, Tata Motors, with
its associated suppliers, including the U.S. companies Timken
and Cummins. Several domestic steel producers are considering
new production facilities in the area surrounding Ranchi.

Tribal Demographics


3. (SBU) Tribals (also known as Adivasis) represent
approximately 28 percent of the state's total population of 27
million and are divided into more than 22 tribal groups.
Non-tribal upper castes, with historic residency in the region,
are known as Sadans and together they, and the backward caste
Mahatos, constitute approximately 32 percent of the population.
The state is predominantly Hindu (69 percent); however, with a
significant Muslim (14 percent) and small, but influential,
Christian population (4 percent). The remainder practices a
variety of other religions or follows tribal beliefs.

Parties and Personalities


4. (SBU) The JMM is a Jharkhand-based regional party with four
parliamentarians from Jharkhand and one parliamentarian in
Orissa, born out of Shibu Soren's successful quest for statehood
with strong tribal support. Shibu Soren, a tribal leader and
long-term member of parliament, who has a less than stellar
reputation (he was acquitted of murder on technical grounds),
was the first chairman of the Jharkhand Area Autonomous Council
created in 1995, the legislative predecessor to the state
assembly. Shibu was Jharkhand's last Chief Minister until his
defeat in the Tamar legislative assembly by-election
precipitated the January 2009 imposition of President's Rule
(see Reftel A). Shibu's deteriorating health has impacted his
ability to unify the party and campaign on its behalf throughout
the state - and there is no apparent successor. The party is
widely rumored to blame its UPA ally Congress for Shibu Soren's
defeat in the Tamar by-election - a position that Jharkhand
state Congress President Pradip Balmuchu did not refute in a
lengthy private interaction with PolOFF. Shibu Soren's
inability, or unwillingness, to stop his son Durga Soren from
contesting against a Congress candidate is widely viewed as
JMM's revenge for Congress' alleged lack of support in the
by-election and the final nail in the coffin of the Congress-JMM

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relationship and potentially heralding JMM's electoral demise.


5. (SBU) In Jharkhand, the national parties, Congress (currently
six parliamentarians) and the BJP (no parliamentarians),have
statewide presence and benefit from access to national party
assets and political heavyweights for the campaign.
Traditionally, backward castes and religious minorities have
tended to support Congress in the state, whereas upper castes
and a section of tribals have supported the BJP. While Congress
has entered into a pre-poll alliance with JMM to contest
parliamentary seats (Congress - seven, JMM - five and a friendly
fight in two),according to Balmuchu the alliance is "an unhappy
one" and "cooperation between the allies [is] far from
complete." On the other hand, BJP enjoys apparent harmonious
relations with its National Democratic Alliance partner Janata
Dal United (JD-U) and have entered into a seat sharing agreement
that reflects BJP's greater strength (BJP - twelve, JD-U - two)
and larger overall vote share (30 percent in the 2004
parliamentary election). The BJP has projected the young tribal
former Chief Minister Arjun Munda as the party's face in the
state. While BJP won one parliamentary seat in 2004, its sole
victor Babulal Marandi left the BJP in 2006 after the party
replaced him with Munda as Chief Minister and sidelined him in
the state unit. He then formed his own party, the Jharkhand
Vikas Morcha (JVM),which is reaching out to Jharkhand's tribal
population. Known to be opposed to both BJP and Congress,
Marandi is likely to support the Third Front in the future. The
JVM is contesting all 14 parliamentary seats, and as a strong
tribal leader, Marandi's charisma may further undermine the
JMM's prospects. While exit polls from the first round are
currently unavailable; Balmuchu indicated in a follow-up
conversation that in the six constituencies that went for
polling in the first round on April 16, Congress has an
advantage in one, BJP in two, JVM in one, with no clear leader
in the other two.


6. (SBU) Bihar-based political parties are also active in the
state, most notably in the districts bordering Bihar. Lalu
Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has two sitting
parliamentarians from Jharkhand, and is fielding candidates in
six constituencies. RJD's ally, Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janata
Party (LJP) does not currently have any sitting parliamentarians
from Jharkhand; however, it is contesting three seats (see
Reftel B for more on Bihar-based regional parties). Having
parted with the UPA, these two parties are unlikely to make
major gains in vote share if not in the number of seats won,
particularly since Bihar's caste equations are not as strong a
factor in tribal Jharkhand.

Political Instability and Anti-Incumbency


7. (SBU) Political instability within the UPA coalition at the
state level is an important issue in the national election in
Jharkhand. While the UPA wishes to downplay the domestic
Congress-JMM spat, the NDA's BJP and JD-U have highlighted the
effects of weak governance on development in the state.
However, political commentators are quick to remark that both
UPA and NDA state governments in Jharkhand have over-promised
and under-delivered and failed to convert numerous Memorandums
of Understanding into actual business projects on the ground.
The slow speed of industrialization is not a uniform concern.
The JMM state secretary and a NGO representative aired tribal
concern about displacement and re-settlement associated with
mining and industrialization. Journalists told PolOFF that the
electorate's frustrations with governance and development feed a
perceptible anti-incumbency feeling in Jharkhand. According to
security analysts and police contacts, Maoists are alleged to
have a presence of differing degree in 22 of the 24 districts in
the state. Despite this presence, and occasional Maoist attacks
(two of which occurred in Jharkhand in the run up to the
elections),interlocutors did not cite security as a primary
election issue during PolOFF's visit to the state. Several,
however, did imply that politicians make deals with Maoists to
intimidate voters who support rival candidates.

Comment


8. (SBU) With political instability prevalent, and short-lived
state governments interspersed with periods of centrally imposed
President's Rule common, the short political life of Jharkhand
as an independent state has been a disaster. Jharkhand is one
of the few states yet to introduce a local governance panchayat
system. To be fair, the panchayat system has been held up due
to reasons beyond its control - a case is pending in the Supreme

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Court - but lack of political will and vision to move forward
also contribute to its delay. In Jharkhand, governance appears
to be a question in this election of bad, more bad, worse. Weak
governance and political instability contribute to overall lack
of development, thereby facilitating the Maoist presence in this
mineral-rich state. The BJP may be able to ride UPA discord and
an anti-incumbency wave to a position of strength in the state.
However, the sheer number of candidates and political parties
contesting, for instance in one constituency there are 31
candidates including 17 Independents, will tend to split the
vote. All parties are waiting for the parliamentary results
before they decide whether and how to form a state government in
Jharkhand or face early state elections (now scheduled for 2010)
and re-emerge, once again, from what is in Jharkhand an
all-to-common stay in political rehab, otherwise known as
President's Rule.
PAYNE