EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 12

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000030

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG
SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 12


1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of
spot information from various sources. This report is not
exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be
confirmed at this time.

CNDP Internal Discord
--------------


2. (SBU) MONUC military officials recently discussed the
Nkunda-Bosco split with members of the International Facilitation,
including Goma PolOff. According to MONUC G-2 sources in Goma, most
of the top CNDP commanders have joined with Bosco. (Note: Other
sources claim the opposite, that Nkunda still has the loyalty of the
majority of CNDP commanders. End note.) Bosco reportedly does not
foresee a political or negotiating position for himself; he is
apparently more comfortable in a military role. He has, however,
not put forward an alternative candidate to head the CNDP.


3. (SBU) The G-2 and other officials noted to Goma PolOff that CNDP
soldiers in the Masisi region have long been dissatisfied with
Nkunda's leadership and are likely to support Bosco. Separately,
other sources claim that General Numbi enticed or bribed Bosco to
break with Nkunda, while others have speculated that Kigali now sees
Nkunda as a liability following release of the Group of Experts
report.


4. (SBU) According to Goma sources, when the visiting UK State
Minister for Development raised the CNDP rift with President Kabila
on January 8, Kabila allegedly responded that Bosco now appears to
be more reasonable, while Nkunda is seen as a "hardliner." Kabila
reportedly confirmed that Bosco has expressed a willingness to
cooperate with the FARDC.


Nairobi Talks
--------------


5. (SBU) A member of the GDRC team at Nairobi sent Embassy Kinshasa
a text message noting that the talks are continuing, with the
government pursuing a strategy of informal discussions with the CNDP
negotiators to determine more precisely the basis of CNDP demands
and how to move forward in a constructive manner. (Note: A more
substantive readout has not yet been forthcoming, either because
there is nothing more to report, or because of a need to keep the
discussions close-hold. End note)


6. (SBU) According to MONUC sources, Special Envoy Olesegun
Obasajno's two-hour meeting with Nkunda on January 9 focused on
Nkunda's demand to include the presidents of the DRC Senate and
National Assembly in the Nairobi negotiations. The two also
discussed CNDP accusations that the FARDC had moved forward toward
CNDP lines near Kibati.


FDLR Issues
--------------


7. (SBU) The Rwandan and Congolese Defense Ministers held a series
of meetings in Goma and Gisenyi in recent weeks, though the
discussions have been closely held. Goma PolOff chaired a meeting
of the Joint Monitoring Group Task Force on January 9, and requested
a briefing on the discussions from the Rwandan and DRC
representatives. Neither official was willing to provide details,
however, stating only that MONUC and the international community
would be informed of the plan for operations against the FDLR at an
appropriate time. The International Facilitation team later
speculated that Kinshasa and Kigali have come up with a plan to
pressure the FDLR by using Bosco's forces, while Rwanda acts to
isolate Nkunda.


Security Issues
--------------


8. (SBU) General Lafontaine, commander of a Mai Mai group in the
northern part of North Kivu, has reportedly established road blocks
to collect "taxes" on travelers entering his militia's zone of
control.


9. (SBU) Several Mai Mai Pascal troops were reportedly killed by
CNDP forces during skirmishes on January 8 in Magenge.


LRA: Operation Lightning Thunder
--------------

KINSHASA 00000030 002 OF 002




10. (SBU) According to MONUC, the LRA staged a second attack on the
town of Bangadi, northwest of Dungu, on January 4. Most of the
town's residents had already fled before the attack. UPDF has
informed MONUC that 25 LRA troops have been killed in the current
campaign.


Humanitarian Issues in Orientale Province
--------------


11. (SBU) IDP estimates in Orientale Province vary. OCHA reported
an IDP population of 62,243, including more than 13,500 in the
Doruma area and the majority of the remainder in or around Dungu
town. According to UNHCR, however, the December LRA attacks
displaced more than 50,000 individuals, bringing the total IDP
population since September to approximately 100,000.


12. (SBU) OCHA estimates that Tadu now hosts 3,500 individuals who
fled Faradje following the December 25 LRA attack. According to
UNICEF, more than half of the population of Faradje, approximately
12,500, has returned home.


13. (SBU) The USAID/DART Team Leader plans to travel with a
humanitarian delegation to Kisangani to discuss with provincial
authorities a "safe haven" strategy for delivering and distributing
food and relief to displaced populations in Orientale Province.

GARVELINK