EASTERN DRC NOTES - MARCH 23: GDRC-CNDP AGREEMENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000266

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG
SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - MARCH 23: GDRC-CNDP AGREEMENT
APPARENTLY READY FOR SIGNATURE


1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of
spot information from various sources. This report is not
exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be
confirmed at this time.

GDRC-CNDP Agreement
--------------


2. (SBU) MONUC informed post on March 23 that SRSG Alan Doss would
fly to Goma the same day to witness the signature of an agreement
between the GDRC and CNDP. Septel will detail further information
about this agreement.

Security Situation in the Kivus and Ituri
--------------


3. (SBU) MONUC patrols in North Kivu reported that two companies of
FARDC troops attacked FDLR positions northwest of Tongo. MONUC is
investigating the incident, but has no confirmed reports of
casualties.


4. (SBU) In recent days, FDLR fighters have reportedly looted in
villages to the north-west of Bukavu and to the south of Bukavu.
Various NGO's report that the Burundian FNL has also been active
along the shoreline between Bukavu and Uvira, with one confirmed
attack in the small village of Kigurwe.


5. (U) Radio Okapi reports that FPJC fighters attacked a FARDC
position at Bahiti (approximately 40 kilometers south-west of Bunia)
on March 19. A MONUC report claimed that six soldiers had been
killed in the attack, but a FARDC commander only confirmed that one
soldier had died, adding that two FPJC fighters had been killed and
others wounded.

Integration
--------------


6. (SBU) Statistics on integrated FARDC/CNDP units appear to be
inconsistent. One monitoring group reports that 5,492 PARECO
fighters have been integrated, along with 600-800 other Mai Mai
elements. The FARDC generally reports integrated totals to be in
the 23,000-25,000 range. However, earlier claims that most FARDC
units had been integrated down to the platoon level have proven
false. Rapid integration was often done by maintaining distinct
CNDP and FARDC units up to the battalion level. The most reliable
figures probably come from the GDRC office responsible for brassage
(SMI),which has actual names in a database with issued ID's. They
report 3,418 CNDP, 5,458 FARDC, 1,448 PARECO and 352 "Other Armed
Groups" have been integrated, for a total of 10,676 (Note: These
figures date from March 3 and may have increased. End Note).


7. (SBU) A source close to the SRSG reports that the GDRC and GOR
will meet next week to discuss Laurent Nkunda's future.

South Kivu Mai Mai
--------------


8. (SBU) In South Kivu, approximately a dozen Mai Mai groups claim
to have a total of 28,864 "troops," although these figures are
undoubtedly inflated. A realistic total of committed followers is
less than 10,000, and much less if one counts only fighters with
guns (Comment: However, the incentive for an unemployed young man to
join an armed group, especially if they are offered positions in the
FARDC, could increase the numbers rapidly. End Comment).

EU Rep Briefs on Europe's Thinking
--------------


9. (SBU) EU Special Representative Roeland van de Geer told
representatives of the International Facilitation in Goma that the
EU wants to move quickly on SSR and is seeking resources from member
states. He noted that the MOD seems to be dragging its feet on this
issue and stressed the need for coordination among the many
countries who have committed to train the FARDC or for other SSR
programs. The EU is also stepping up legal efforts to pressure FDLR
leaders in Europe who continue to promote armed resistance in the
DRC. The EU will seek to establish a code of conduct for resource
extraction companies and is prepared to "name and shame" companies
that continue to operate "criminal companies." The EU will send a
mission to the Kivus in April to investigate how to address sexual
violence in the region.

Operation Lightning Thunder
--------------


KINSHASA 00000266 002 OF 002



10. (SBU) MONUC believes Joseph Kony and approximately 135
followers may be west of Garamba Park and moving in the direction of
the Central African Republic. Another LRA group estimated at 35 is
located to the northwest of Kony's group, and is also moving toward
CAR. A third group, possibly the one responsible for the recent
attack on Banda, appears to be moving east, possibly to link up with
Kony's forces. MONUC believes the LRA forces remaining in Garamba
Park have split into four groups and are moving south.


11. (SBU) Radio Okapi reported that the LRA attacked the localities
of Yanguma and Nyangara (located more than 600 kilometers northeast
of Kisangani) on March 19 resulting in 12 persons killed, 40
kidnapped, and the remainder fleeing the area.


12. (SBU) A well-informed NGO contact told us that he had heard
unconfirmed reports that at Banda there are Antanov aircraft, most
likely from Sudan, air dropping supplies to the LRA.

GARVELINK