EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 7

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000020

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG
SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 7

REF: KINSHASA 6


1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of
spot information from various sources. This report is not
exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be
confirmed at this time.

CNDP Internal Discord
--------------


2. (SBU) Goma PolOff reported that CNDP spokesperson Bertrand
Bisimwa told MONUC that the disagreement between Nkunda and Bosco
was essentially "personal" and that the CNDP negotiating team in
Nairobi is trying to put this internal dispute behind them.
Notably, Bisimwa also claimed on January 6 that Bosco would approach
BBC to "correct" his earlier statement of a takeover. (Note: Post
is not aware that Bosco has made any such retraction; the latest
press reports quote Nkunda and CNDP spokespersons as denying that a
coup has taken place. End note)


3. (SBU) The DART team leader in Goma said that many in the
international community there have decided that the move to oust
Nkunda was a personal initiative on the part of Bosco, but that
Nkunda is nevertheless in firm control of the CNDP and Bosco will
pay the price for his action. A MONUC official told Embassy
Kinshasa that the CNDP had released a communique stating that no
changes had taken place within the organization, to include Bosco
remaining for the time being as Chief of Staff and that an inquiry
would be conducted into this affair, after which an official
statement would be released to the international community. (Note:
The official sent Post a copy of this latest "communique" which is
actually labeled as being transmitted from the CNDP representation
in France. End note)


4. (SBU) At the same time, the MONUC official said there appears to
be a stalemate between the two factions and that it could be easier
said than done to remove Bosco from a position of power, though it
is unclear how much support within the CNDP he actually commands.


5. (SBU) Comment: Accurate assessments of the cause, outcome, and
veracity of this rift within the CNDP remain elusive. It cannot be
said for sure at this point who has the upper hand, Nkunda or Bosco.
The fact that the CNDP has not released an official communique on
this matter is in no way keeping with normal practice, and would
suggest a real rift within the organization.


6. (SBU) Comment continued: There are a number of possible
explanations for this affair, including the following two. One is
that Bosco did in fact attempt a coup due to his rumored frustration
with Nkunda's relative lack of aggression in defending Tutsi
interests, or due to a simple desire to wield maximum power within
the organization. Another is that Bosco was responding to a move by
Nkunda to sideline him, in an attempt to curry additional favor with
the international community. End comment

Operation Lightning Thunder
--------------


7. (SBU) MONUC reported that the LRA launched an attack against the
village of "Manjere" (as heard) on January 1, resulting in the
deaths of seven civilians. There was also an attack on the village
of Sambia, between Faradje and Watsa, though the number of
casualties is unknown. MONUC believes these two raids were for the
purpose of securing food supplies.


8. (SBU) The UPDF launched an attack on the LRA base camp "Swahili"
on January 5, allegedly killing six LRA combatants. The UPDF
believes that Kony is still in Garamba park, and that the LRA
consists of 600 combatants and 200 dependents. (Note: Goma PolOff
has heard significantly higher estimates from other sources. End
note)

Security Situation in the Kivus
--------------


9. (SBU) MONUC reported that a skirmish took place near Rugari on
January 6, though there is controversy as to whether it took place
between the CNDP and FDLR or between the two CNDP factions that have
allegedly formed as a result of the latest discord. Separately, it
was reported that PARECO forces had looted houses in Kibirizi and
that the FDLR had prevented a UN team from carrying out road
repairs.


10. (SBU) University students burned tires and blocked roads in
Goma on January 6, demanding they be paid their scholarships, and UN
security sources warned that additional demonstrations could take

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place today.


11. (SBU) MONUC reported that the CNDP abducted a woman in "Lowe"
(as heard) but that MONUC was able to secure her release; the CNDP
has also handed over a number of child soldiers to MONUC.
Additionally, the CNDP continues to replace village chiefs who are
considered uncooperative (reftel),which is causing discomfort among
local residents. A recent movement of people to the Kihondo IDP
camp is connected to this phenomenon.


12. (SBU) MONUC has deployed a second Bangladeshi company to
Ishasha (reftel). The reasons for this movement relate to the
protection of refugees, stemming arms flow across the border with
Uganda, and responding to recent CNDP claims that MONUC is doing
nothing to prevent the FARDC from occupying territory from which it
has withdrawn.

Humanitarian/Political Updates
--------------


13. (SBU) Goma PolOff and press reports note that UK International
Development Secretary Gordon Alexander is in Goma today. The UK
will reportedly donate 64 million pounds this year in response to
the humanitarian crisis.

GARVELINK