CAMPAIGN FOR 2011 ELECTIONS KICKS OFF AS KABILA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001079

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV ECON EFIN SENV KDEM EINV CG
SUBJECT: CAMPAIGN FOR 2011 ELECTIONS KICKS OFF AS KABILA
DELIVERS HIS THIRD STATE OF THE NATION ADDRESS

REF: A. KINSHASA 1053

B. KINSHASA 1041

C. KINSHASA 1036

D. KINSHASA 1033

E. KINSHASA 1025

F. KINSHASA 997

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Garvelink for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (SBU) Summary: In a December 7 State of the Nation
address, President Kabila implicitly launched his campaign
for the 2011 local and presidential elections, focusing his
points primarily on domestic political issues. Kabila
predicted GDP growth of 5.4% in 2010, and he lauded the
progress made in each of the government's "Cinq Chantiers,"
or five priority development areas. He acknowledged that the
DRC should improve its investment climate and maintained that
the security situation throughout the DRC had improved. He
asserted that local elections would be held in 2011, but did
not provide a timetable for national elections, tentatively
scheduled for 2011. Kabila was noticeably silent on key
international issues, such as the future status of MONUC.
His remarks, following a two-week period of increased public
engagement throughout the country, closely mirrored campaign
themes making the State of the Nation more akin to a
reelection kickoff speech. End summary.

Themes: Security, the Economy, Standard of Living
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Since the October 2008 appointment of Adolphe
Muzito as prime minister, the GDRC promulgated a
three-pronged strategy of national renewal based on restoring
state authority in the East, establishing macroeconomic
stability, and improving local living conditions. Kabila
addressed each of these themes in positive terms through
recent public outreach efforts and in his address at the
National Assembly. In typical Congolese fashion, Kabila was
greeted, outside and inside parliament, by chanting
supporters displaying colorful banners. He called for
consolidating security gains, expanding economic
opportunities, and focusing in 2010 on improving substandard
living conditions through his five-point program known as
the "Cinq Chantiers," (literally "five construction sites")
or five development priorities.


3. (SBU) Security: Claiming the return of central
authority in all provinces, Kabila stressed that "the
Congolese flag flies over the entire national territory" with
the successive defeats of rebel Rwandan, Ugandan and internal
paramilitary forces in the Kivus and Orientale Province. He
deplored the "tribalism" which he said was at the heart of
the conflict in Dongo, Equateur (refs D and F). Although
MONUC unquestionably has helped stabilize the uncertain
security situation throughout the country, Kabila did not
mention MONUC by name in his remarks, which seemed
overwhelmingly directed to a domestic audience. He did
recognize, however, the assistance of the broader
international community in establishing peace in the DRC.


4. (SBU) The Economy: Conceding difficulties in achieving
macroeconomic growth due to the global financial crisis,
Kabila predicted growth of 5.4% in 2010 in the DRC, nearly
double this year's expected GDP growth. Kabila highlighted
his success in negotiating favorable deals with international
financial institutions, unveiled a multi-step plan to attract
foreign direct investment, and called for a government
stimulus package funded with savings from reduced debt
Qstimulus package funded with savings from reduced debt
service. He noted that the DRC had moved closer to
forgiveness of the country's $12 billion external debt. To
improve the private investment climate, Kabila prioritized
joining the Organization for the Harmonization of Business
Law in Africa (known by its French acronym OHADA). To combat
the effects of the economic crisis, he proposed significant
public investment in poverty reduction under the "Cinq
Chantiers."


5. (SBU) Standard of Living: Kabila promised progress in
all reas of the "Cinq Chantiers" program, which consists of
infrastructure, health, education, electricity and water
provision, and employment creation (Note: The well-designed
"Cinq Chantiers" official website in French is at
http://www.cinqchantiers-rdc.com. End note). Kabila also
highlighted Sino-Congolese infrastructure projects valued at
$1.4 billion in 2010, and pledged to construct or restore

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hospitals and schools throughout the country, and
universities in the major cities of Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, and
Kisangani. The provision of employment and utilities were
key themes in recent public appearances in provinces that
voted for his opponents in the presidential elections of 2006
(para 7).


6. (C) When Kabila announced that local and municipal
elections, originally planned for 2009, would be delayed
until 2011, there was a visible uptick in interest amongst
the deputies and diplomats. Kabila explained the delay as
necessary to establish prerequisite institutions and
organizations. He said the actual date would be announced by
the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI),although sources
have placed the date as February 13, 2011 (ref B). He did
not reference planned 2011 national elections.

On the Campaign Trail
--------------


7. (C) Kabila spent five days in late November in Eastern
Kasai's capital, Mbuji-Mayi, recently devastated by floods
(ref A) and the province in which candidate Kabila in 2006
had his poorest electoral showing. It was Kabila's first
visit as president to the province, where he announced the
central government would pay $20 million in salary arrears to
employees of the local Bakwanga Mines, a parastatal in which
the GDRC has an 80% stake. He encouraged Kasaians to
diversify their economy from diamond mining to other minerals
and to resume their former agricultural productivity. Kabila
next traveled to Equateur, site of recent tribal fighting,
and the provincial stronghold of former strong man Mobutu and
opposition MLC President Jean-Pierre Bemba. It was Kabila's
first visit to South Ubangi district and its capital, Gemena.
Kabila walked from the airport to downtown along a
kilometer-long route lined with locals who greeted him with
shouts of "we want water and electricity," according to a
source quoted by local daily La Reference. Richard Ilunga
Ntumba, an assistant to Kabila's cabinet director, told
poloff the visits were necessary to show that Kabila was
president of all provinces, not only those that had elected
him. He said Kabila planned to build upon his share of the
2006 vote by "maintaining strength where he did well and
increasing votes where he did poorly." Kabila mentioned each
of the 11 provinces and numerous cities throughout his State
of the Nation address. (Note: Some observers have disputed
that Kabila really went to Gemena, an extremely isolated
outpost, and that the "visit" was a fabrication of pro-Kabila
news media. End note.)


8. (C) Anti-corruption: The ruling Alliance for the
Presidential Majority (AMP) coalition is "trapped," opined
the Le Phare daily, by Kabila's Zero Tolerance policy
targeting official corruption. A sensitive issue for a
president running for reelection is the appearance of a
double standard, the daily added. Newly elected Equateur
Governor Jean-Claude Baende brought the last opposition party
province into the president's circle of influence (ref E),
but faces a national Senate investigation into alleged vote
buying and the embezzlement of national funds rectroceded to
the provincial budget. While some observers believe a
secondary reason for Kabila's visit to Gemena (para 7) was to
reassure the embattled governor, Ilunga (with what appeared
to be a regretful shake of the head and pained expression)
Qto be a regretful shake of the head and pained expression)
told poloff Baende's future "is not sure. Zero Tolerance
applies to everyone."


9. (SBU) All politics is local: One domestic political
theme of the newly-launched campaign positions Kabila as the
"architect of national reconstruction." Kabila -- known to
be enamored of modern machinery from high-performance
automobiles and motorcycles to functioning factories -- is
pictured in local posters, official website poses, and in
newspaper coverage behind the controls of industrial
machinery and tractors. In his address, Kabila promised
1,000 tractors in the next two years to modernize the
agricultural sector. Of those, at least 94 could be
independently confirmed due to a three-year program announced
on November 26 by the Ministry of Agriculture. The program,
developed jointly by Caritas International and the Congolese
National Conference of Catholic Bishops would provide two
tractors to each of the country's 47 dioceses. Diocesan
priests and nuns would maintain their own farm as an example
to their congregation members, who could use the tractors on
a communal farm, suggested Agriculture Minister Norbert
Basengezi Katintima to the Le Phare newspaper.

KINSHASA 00001079 003 OF 003




10. (C) Discussing Kabila's plans after a second term, the
maximum permitted under the DRC constitution, some analysts
foresee a diplomatic role for a young and charismatic former
head of state such as Kabila. Ilunga, assistant to Kabila's
cabinet director, shared his opinion with poloff that Kabila
would be the voice for a special issue such as the
environment. Indeed, Kabila spoke passionately toward the
end of his address about climate change, the Copenhagen
Summit, and the DRC perspective on preservation (ref C).
Invoking the DRC's "unparalleled biodiversity, bountiful
resources, and immense forests," Kabila said that for the
Congolese the environment is "not a cause but a conviction."


11. (C) Comment: Kabila's speech appears to be the first
salvo in the upcoming electoral season. And Kabila, at this
point, has the field all to himself. Public discontent has
not coalesced around an alternative national figure,
opposition parties are in disarray, and even if the Senate
investigation finds newly installed Equateur Governor Baende
guilty, Kabila may sacrifice him to make an example of what
is not acceptable. In 2010, Kabila will try to provide
tangible benefits to voters via stimulus spending, strategic
successes (e.g., MONUC planning for its drawdown),and
economic progress (e.g., an IMF deal). Serious challenges,
however, confront his goal of being re-elected. First and
foremost, the fragile peace in most of the country could
easily deteriorate. Also, some of the benefits he hopes to
secure for voters (particularly economic benefits) may prove
to be beyond his reach. Kabila's progress towards a second
term as president, both informally and institutionally, is
underway. End comment.

GARVELINK