JAMAICA: FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER AND KEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 KINGSTON 000699

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (JMACK-WILSON) (BALVARADO) (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH)
L/LEI (CHOLLAND) (AKLUESNER)
INR/IAA (GBOHIGAN)
JUSTICE FOR OIA (PPETTY)
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW
INR/RES (RWARNER)
CENTRAL AMERICAN CARIBBEAN BASIN COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/09/17
TAGS: CJAN CVIS PREL PGOV PINR ASEC SNAR SOCI KCOR KCRM JM
XL, BR
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER AND KEY
OPPOSITION FIGURE SLAMS PM AS "INDECISIVE" IN "DUDUS" EXTRADITION
REQUEST

REF: REF: A. KINGSTON 684; B. KINGSTON 680; C. KINGSTON 666

D. STATE 85807; E. KINGSTON 614; F. KINGSTON 611; G. KINGSTON 490

H. 08 KINGSTON 884; E. KINGSTON 634; F. KINGSTON 614; G. KINGSTON 611

H. KINGSTON 490; I. 08 KINGSTON 884

CLASSIFIED BY: Isiah Parnell, CDA; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

Summary and Analysis:




1. (C) The myriad political and social crises facing Jamaica -
rampant crime, economic malaise, a deteriorating balance of
payments, poor education, and the Government of Jamaica (GOJ)'s
delay in honoring a high-profile extradition request - are a "low
level explosion," and a potential breakdown of social and civic
order in Jamaica is "closer than we imagine," according to Peter
Phillips, Member of Parliament (MP) for the opposition People's
National Party (PNP) and former Minister of National Security
(MNS). However, as an opposition MP with admittedly few contacts
within the current GOJ, Phillips's analysis of Prime Minister (PM)
Bruce Golding's deliberations are inconsistent with those of others
closer to the PM that suggest that the extradition request will be
honored(Reftel A, B, C). (NOTE: PM has advised CDA that the
extradition request will be denied. See Septel. End Note). End
Summary.



"A Low Level Explosion"

--------------




2. (C) Emboff met with Phillips on September 14 at the U.S. Embassy
in Kingston. Phillips described the current state of affairs in
Jamaica as a "low level explosion," in which current trends of
rampant crime, youth violence, economic malaise, foreign debt
(Reftel E),an inadequate educational system, and the current
extradition controversy might coalesce to push Jamaica toward a
"tipping point" at which the country might become ungovernable, a
failed state along the lines of Haiti or Somalia. While Phillips
didn't think "Jamaica is there yet," he said that such an
eventuality was "closer than we imagine." Depicting "the viability
of the Jamaican state" as in danger, Phillips felt it was
imperative that the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) make efforts to
reform the security sector and get the nation's "financial house in
order."




3. (C) Similarly, Phillips described the ongoing extradition
controversy as exacerbating these problems in ways that might
conceivably lead to the "dismemberment of the state." Having
garnered headlines last week in publicly denouncing the governing
Jamaica Labour Party (JLP)'s handling of the Christopher "Dudus"
Coke extradition request (Reftel D),Phillips criticized the PM as
"indecisive" and "looking for a reason not to act" on the request.
Were the Golding government to refuse to arrest and extradite Coke,
the GOJ would be implicitly admitting that large portions of the
country - garrison communities in parts of Kingston, Spanish Town,
Montego Bay, and elsewhere that have been governed by local "dons"
and criminal syndicates for decades - were not under GOJ control.
Having served as Minister of National Security (MNS) in the
previous PNP GOJ, Phillips said that he could attest that the

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garrisons, including Coke's Tivoli Gardens, were "heavily
armed"(NOTE: Tivoli Gardens is located in the West Kingston
constituency that Golding represents in Parliament. End Note).
Noting that there was "no ideological coherence" among those
controlling the garrisons, Phillips worried that Jamaica would be
in "big trouble" if the "dons" were ever to decide to coordinate
their efforts and challenge the GOJ.



The Roxborough Institute

--------------




4. (C) Phillips established the Roxborough Institute earlier this
year as a means of drawing Jamaica's public leaders into a
discussion of these important issues. Although Phillips doesn't

see the institute as a vehicle for his own political ambitions, he
does concede that others might see it as such. However, while he
envisions the organization as bipartisan and some members of the
JLP have attended its lectures, he has not been successful in
convincing any to join the organization's board and concedes that
it is unlikely that anyone in government or in high ranking party
positions would do so.




5. (C) According to Phillips, the intensity of Jamaica's crises
demands that his generation of political leaders act or else "get
off the stage" and let the next generation address them. Jamaica's
political dialogue is "broken," Phillips said, and is desperately
in need of a real debate over the nation's problems and its future.
"Jamaica needs real analysis, not just talk," Phillips noted, while
describing the nation's current political debate as too strident
and heated. Although Phillips admitted that there are those in the
universities addressing these problems and potential solutions,
their voices aren't reaching the public at large. To fill this
vacuum, Phillips described the Roxborough Institute as "something
between" a university think tank and a public forum.



The "Dudus" Extradition

--------------




6. (C) Although he claimed to have no direct contact with anyone
within the GOJ regarding the Coke extradition matter, Phillips said
he believes that Golding is looking for a reason not to act and
trying to determine how serious the U.S. is. Although they are of
different political parties, Phillips went to school with Golding,
has known him many years, and considers him a friend.
Nevertheless, Phillips expressed surprise at how poorly Golding has
handled the issue and at how indecisive he has appeared. If the GOJ
fails to act, Phillips said, much of the public may lose faith in
government authority as it will have become clear that the garrison
criminal syndicates hold the real power in Jamaica.




7. (C) Although Phillips conceded that his PNP also had ties to
garrisons and organized crime, he claimed a difference of degree
and that "contact is not the same as subordination." Phillips

contrasted the JLP's handling of the Coke affair with his own
management of similar extradition and other high profile cases
involving "dons" and drug kingpins with PNP ties during his tenure
as MNS: Donald Zeeks, who was convicted and imprisoned in Jamaica;

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Donovan "Bulby" Bennett, who was killed in a police shootout; and
Norris "Deedo" Nembhard and Leebert Ramcharan, who were both
extradited and sentenced to prison in the U.S. Although these cases
entailed protests and political costs for the PNP, Phillips
contended that they were necessary and that there is no politically
risk-free option for Golding.




8. (C) As soon as the previous PNP government knew an extradition
request was imminent, Phillips said that the relevant actors - the
MNS, Ministry of Justice (MOJ),the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
Foreign Trade (MFAFT),and the Office of the Public Prosecutor
(OPP) would meet in one location, "bring their stamps," and process
the request immediately so as to prevent unnecessary delay and
media leaks. Then, vetted units of the Jamaica Defence Force (JDF)
and/or Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) would be employed to
apprehend the suspect before the accused would have time to react
or go into hiding. In the Coke case, however, the extradition
request has taken over three weeks to be processed by the relevant
ministries and is currently under consideration by the Ministry of
Justice. As a result, media speculation has been rampant,

leaks have been more likely, the GOJ has lost the element of
surprise, and Coke is widely believed to have sequestered himself
in Tivoli Gardens where he will be difficult to apprehend.



"A Paroxysm of Violence"

--------------




9. (C) Although Golding claims to have been surprised by the
extradition request, Phillips contends that the PM has known the
request was coming for some time and recalls briefing him on the
case shortly after the September 2007 elections that brought the
JLP to power (NOTE: Former Ambassador Brenda Johnson also briefed
the PM on the case in early 2009. Reftel A. End Note).




10. (C) Phillips believes that Coke's attorney, Tom Tavares-Finson
is focused on stopping the extradition, not negotiating a plea
arrangement with U.S. authorities (NOTE: A law partner of

Tavares-Finson did call Embassy Kingston suggesting a "get
acquainted" meeting with the new CDA, a request Emboff rebuffed as
inappropriate given the pending extradition request. END NOTE).




11. (C) Although Coke's organization in Tivoli Gardens is heavily
armed, Phillips believes it can be contained by security forces.
Phillips believes that Coke essentially has three options
remaining: to continue to hide out in Tivoli Gardens for the
foreseeable future; to foment as much violence and destruction as
possible should the GOJ attempt to apprehend him, and/or; to escape
the country. Given that the element of surprise has been lost,
Phillips predicted "a paroxysm of violence" and didn't foresee any
prospect for Coke's nonviolent apprehension. All things considered,
Phillips recommended that the GOJ try to lure Coke out of Tivoli
Gardens to a location in which he would feel safe, perhaps under
the guise of spiriting him out of the country, although Coke would
surely be expecting such a ruse.



"He Has Not Chosen To Do The Extraordinary"

--------------

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12. (C) Although Golding as of yet "has not chosen to do the
extraordinary," Phillips maintained that while arresting Coke at
this time would carry short term political costs for Golding,

the medium and long term benefits for the PM would be positive.
While an arrest might jeopardize the JLP's electoral stronghold in
West Kingston and provoke dissension within his party, Golding
would be a "hero" among the "silent majority" of Jamaicans who are
disgusted by the crime and corruption that have crippled the
nation. However, in doing nothing Golding risks losing credibility
with the public.




13. (C) Phillips said that he believes Golding honestly doesn't
know what to do, and that his hesitancy is encouraging a perception
of indecision among the Jamaican population. The question in the
public mind, Phillips maintains, is whether Golding is focused on
the good of the JLP or the good of Jamaica? By equivocating,
Golding has narrowed his options: to arrest Coke at this point will
appear to be capitulation to the U.S., with an attendant loss of
face and a greater likelihood of violence and bloodshed.
Nevertheless, no GOJ has ever refused an extradition request,
Phillips says. For Golding to do so now would damage Jamaica's
international reputation and might jeopardize the GOJ's hopes for
an International Monetary Fund (IMF) package. (Reftel F) (NOTE: In
a meeting with CDA on September 17, the PM advised that the Coke
extradition request would be denied. See Septel. End Note).



"A Strategic, Not Tactical" Approach

--------------




14. (C) Phillips conceded that others within his own PNP don't
necessarily share his views, as evidenced by their silence since he
went public with his criticisms of Golding last week.

Despite having failed in a leadership challenge against PSM in 2008
(Reftel I),Phillips did not rule out a leadership role in the
party in the future, but said he is not actively seeking it at this
time. Describing his approach as "strategic, not tactical," he
maintained that his 2008 critiques of PSM's leadership have been
borne out by the PNP's misfortunes over the past year (Reftel H).
However, Phillips said that he worried that another leadership
challenge at this time would allow PSM to blame her failures on
dissension and disloyal elements from within the PNP.




15. (C) As an example, Phillips referred to the PNP's legal
challenges against several JLP MPs on the grounds that, as dual
citizens, their nominations were invalid under the Jamaican

Constitution (Reftel H). In the three by-elections the Supreme
Court has ordered thus far, the JLP candidates ruled ineligible won
reelection handily after renouncing their non-Jamaican citizenship,
while the PNP has suffered humiliating defeats and wasted precious
resources (Reftel G). Phillips says that he never supported the
strategy and saw it as "political opportunism, not principled," an
attempt on the part of PSM at "a shortcut back to power." While
Phillips conceded that there was "legitimate room for debate" as to
whether noncitizens should be allowed to serve in Parliament, the
issue has become "so infected by irrational passions" that time
will need to pass before it may be discussed dispassionately.

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Conclusion and Analysis

--------------




16. (C) As a key figure in the PNP and a former MNS, Phillips has a
long history in Jamaican politics and keen insights into the Coke
extradition case. However, as an opposition MP with admittedly few
contacts within the current GOJ, Phillips's analysis of Golding's
deliberations are inconsistent with those of others closer to the
PM that suggest that the extradition request will be honored(Reftel
A, B, C). Nevertheless, with many years of experience as MSN,
Phillips's warnings as to the security implications of a Coke
extradition merit attention. Finally, Phillips's vision for the
Roxborough Institute and refusal to rule out a future role in the
PNP leadership suggest that he foresees for himself a continuing
role in Jamaican politics and public life. End Conclusion and
Analysis.



Parnell
Parnell