JAMAICA: LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION WARNS OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000059

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS CENTRAL AMERICAN CARIBBEAN BASIN COLLECTIVE

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR
(ANDRE CADIEUX) INR/IAA (PETER KNIGHT)
TREASURY FOR IA/WH (ERIN NEPHEW)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SNAR EFIN ASEC KCOR CARICOM
IBRD, IDB, CDB, FBI, JM, XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION WARNS OF
POSSIBLE LARGE-SCALE SOCIAL UNREST

REF: A. 08 KINGSTON 837 (222015Z SEP 08)(NOTAL)

B. 08 KINGSTON 933 (311857Z OCT 08)(NOTAL)

C. 08 KINGSTON 1040 (101902Z DEC 08)(NOTAL)

D. 08 KINGSTON 1094 (221925Z DEC 08)(NOTAL)

E. KINGSTON 45 (201648Z JAN 09)(NOTAL)

F. 08 KINGSTON 176 (271832Z FEB 08)(NOTAL)

Classified By: CDA JAMES T. HEG, Reasons 1.5 (B) AND (D)

Summary and Comment
--------------

1.(C) A deteriorating economy, high unemployment and food
prices, and resurgent inflation could plunge Jamaica into
large-scale social unrest, according to former Prime Minister
(PM) and Leader of the Opposition Portia Simpson Miller
(PSM); she gave her dire warning during a farewell courtesy
call by Ambassador Brenda L. Johnson, who ends a three-year
posting and returns to the USA on January 20. PSM claimed
that, thus far, she had acted responsibly by not fomenting
unrest, but ominously warned that "if the people hit the
streets, we'll be unable to stop them."

2.(C) Comment: All too aware of her populist appeal to poor
Jamaicans, the charismatic PSM, who indeed has kept a low
profile in recent weeks, may have calculated that public
frustrations are not yet broad and deep enough to plunge the
country into chaos so severe as to imperil the survival of
the current government. However, with Jamaica's economic
plight worsening by the day, the political pendulum now
probably is swinging in her direction, and her calculus could
change. End Summary and Comment.

3.(SBU) Ambassador Brenda L. Johnson, accompanied by USAID
Mission Director and EmbOff, paid a fareweQcourtesy calQ
January 16 on the Leader of Opposition and President of the
People's National Party (PNP),the charismatic former Prime
Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM). PSM was
accompanied by PNP Vice President and former Minister of
Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Anthony Hylton. Ambassador
noted that visits by the Vice President of China, the UK's
Prince Charles, and King Juan Carlos of Spain would help
raise Jamaica's international profile. In response to
Ambassador's inquiry, PSM expressed optimism about her
political future, but said she was sorry to see the
Ambassador's departure. She expressed sincere gratitude for
all that the Ambassador and the U.S. had contributed to
Jamaica; during her nine months as PM, she had been impressed
by the steady stream of equipment, vehicles, and training for
Jamaica's Defence Force (JDF) and Constabulary Force (JCF),
as well as the myriad assistance programs in justice,
anti-corruption, and economic development. She recalled the
critical U.S. support to the Caribbean states during the
Second World War, and said that, despite ups and downs, USG
assistance had remained strong ever since.

4.(SBU) Mission Director noted that revitalization of
Jamaica's potentially lucrative cocoa sector would be an area
of focus for USAID in coming months, and said she was pleased
that Washington had been able to provide USD 5 million for
repairing roads and rural schools heavily damaged by
Hurricane Gustav. Ambassador noted that the recent visit of
the High Speed Vessel USS SWIFT had been a great civic action
success, and was glad that the vessel would return in April.
Ambassador reiterated that fighting corruption was vital to
both the U.S. and Jamaica. Mission Director noted that,
acting on the recommendation of a visiting anti-corruption
team, the National Integrity Action Forum would be launched
at the University of the West Indies (UWI)'s Mona campus on
January 28; she hoped that PSM would attend. PSM then
recounted how, in the wake of the scandal surrounding
distribution of Cuban light bulbs (reftel F),the PNP had
established an internal committee to root corruption out of
the party in preparation for its eventual return to power.
She then said she soon would resume her "Portia's House Call"
program of regular unannounced visits to communities in order

to take the pulse of the people.

5.(C) PSM then opined that the current Jamaica Labour Party
(JLP) Government was "not speaking to the people" and "not
making clear to the people" the gravity of the country's
severe economic problems (reftels C,D,E); the media also were
not addressing these serious issues. She claimed that, if
the JLP had been in opposition while the country underwent
such a crisis, by now "roads would have been blocked; if the
people pour out onto the streets, no one can control them."
She said Finance Minister Audley Shaw at first had downplayed
the effect of the U.S. downturn on Jamaica, claiming that no
rollback of prices was needed; only when the Jamaican dollar
had declined sharply had Shaw reversed himself and considered
ways to bring down prices. She then claimed that, when
Minister of Industry and Commerce Karl Samuda had telephoned
her to ask her advice, she had replied that "we'll help" by
not staging or endorsing large-scale demonstrations even
though "the people wanted to go to the streets...if the
people hit the streets, we'll be unable to stop them. We
will support the government on any initiatives which are
pro-people; but we also will support the rights of the
people." To this point, she claimed, the PNP had acted
responsibly by not fomenting unrest.

6.(SBU) PSM observed that Jamaica faced serious trouble with
declining prices for bauxite, doubts about divestment of the
sugar estates, and difficulties with Air Jamaica (reftels
B,C,D,E). Samuda's publicly decrying the high prices
grocers were charging for basic foodstuffs "could lead to
riots in supermarkets." She then recounted several cases in
which she had had to supply poor people with food and
medicine from her constituency office (Note: PSM represents
St. Andrews Southwest, one of the poorest of Kingston's inner
city areas. End note.) She claimed that malnutrition was
becoming a serious problem, and that PM Golding had been
making dangerous statements on the health situation by
maintaining that "the people are overburdening the system."
She claimed that, in reality, insulin and chemotherapy were
beyond the reach of many who needed them. Hylton then
pointed out that the JLP Government had erred in introducing
free medical appointments and free education; years ago,
former PM P.J. Patterson (PNP) had considered this, but had
rejected the proposal because it inevitably would have led to
increased ancillary fees ) exactly what was now happening.
PSM then claimed that she had refrained from making public
numerous cases of medical malpractice by the government "to
avoid upheaval." Mission Director concluded by assuring PSM
that USAID would continue its support for education through
the Education Transformation Program of the Ministry.
HEG