JAMAICA: PRIME MINISTER BRUCE GOLDING'S RULING

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000221

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS TO CENTRAL AMERICAN CARIBBEAN BASIN COLLECTIVE

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR (ACADIEUX, WSMITH, VDEPIRRO) INR/IAA (GBOHIGIAN)
TREASURY FOR IA/WH (ERIN NEPHEW)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ASEC SNAR KCOR CARICOM IBRD
IDB, CDB, JM, XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: PRIME MINISTER BRUCE GOLDING'S RULING
LABOUR PARTY (JLP) CANDIDATE LIKELY TO WIN WEST PORTLAND
BY-ELECTION; IF NOT, SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS

REF: A. KINGSTON 156 (272047Z FEB 09)

B. 08 KINGSTON 1034 (091429Z DEC 08)

C. 08 KINGSTON 494 (301353Z MAY 08)

D. 08 KINGSTON 409 (091742Z MAY 08)

E. 08 KINGSTON 398 (071203Z MAY 08)

F. 08 KINGSTON 364 (291558Z APR 08)

G. 08 KINGSTON 310 (141908Z APR 08)

H. 07 KINGSTON 1336 (042044Z SEP 07)

I. 08 KINGSTON 837 (222015Z SEP 08)

Classified By: CDA JAMES T. HEG, Reasons 1.5 (B) AND (D)

Summary
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1.(C)Prime Minister (PM) Bruce Golding's ruling Jamaica
Labour Party (JLP) appears likely to win a key by-election
in the West Portland district on March 23, thus retaining
its narrow 31-28 majority in Parliament. If it were to
lose, Golding would come under immense pressure. While
national elections are not constitutionally required until
September, 2012, and he would prefer not to risk a snap
national election until economic recovery is at last in
sight, whether the JLP could then cling to power without
losing any further seats in three other anticipated
by-elections appears doubtful. End Summary.

A Key Precedental Ruling
--------------

2.(C) Per reftel (A),in keeping with an Appellate Court
ruling of February 27, a by-election to be held March 23 in
the district of West Portland finally will determine the
Member of Parliament (MP) to represent the constituency.
Until recently, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP)'s Daryl Vaz,
who captured the seat by a 7.3 percent margin in the
September, 2007 national election (reftel H),but
subsequently was disqualified as an MP because of having
held allegiance to a foreign power at the time of his
nomination (reftels A-G),was universally favored to once
again trounce the People's National Party (PNP) candidate
Abe Dabdoub. Indeed, an internal poll conducted for the
PNP showed Vaz leading by an unprecedented 29 points.
Sensing an inevitable defeat, on March 1 the PNP's
charismatic populist President and Leader of the Opposition
Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) announced that, instead of
Dabdoub, Kenneth D. Rowe would contest the seat for the
PNP. Rowe's selection, and strong support from party
leaders on the campaign trail over the last three weeks,
have given the PNP an outside chance to recapture West
Portland. For a number of historical reasons, this is
ironic.

Background: West Portland
--------------

3.(SBU) West Portland was among the 32 constituencies
established in the Constitution granted to Jamaica by the
UK in 1944. Of the 37 candidates who contested the 14
general elections between 1944 and 2007, only five have
done so successfully -- three JLP (including Vaz),and two
PNP; the JLP has won nine times, to the PNP's five times.
Ironically, in 2002 Kenneth Rowe nearly captured the seat
running as a JLP candidate, losing to the PNP's Errol Ennis
by only 281 votes. For the 2007 national election (reftel
H),the JLP leadership decided to replace Rowe with Vaz as
the party s candidate; Rowe then switched allegiance to the
PNP. He now squares off against the man who replaced him
as the JLP candidate in 2007. West Portland has seen
lengthy periods of domination by both parties: the JLP
1944-1989, and the PNP 1989-2007. Perhaps ominously for
Rowe, historically the electorate has not given favorable
treatment to PNP candidates having previously switched
allegiance from the JLP: in 1955, 1972, and 2007 PNP
candidates lost in part because they were perceived as
"turncoats." Vaz publicly has denounced Rowe as a
"redundant Labourite."

Vaz Still Has the Inside Track


--------------

4.(C) In the course of a recent private meeting with
Chargi, senior PNP MP and former Minister of National
Security Dr. Peter Phillips, who unsuccessfully challenged
PSM for the party presidency last year (reftel I),opined
that Vaz very likely would recapture the West Portland
seat, a prediction repeated by other PNP grass-roots
activists in private discussions with PolOff. Phillips
said that, given Vaz's popularity and the JLP government's
recent road and construction projects in the constituency,
the PNP's only real advantage was pervasive public
frustration with the country's high unemployment,
inflation, negative growth, and rampant gang-related crime;
at least in West Portland, such frustrations probably would
not overcome Vaz's popularity. Although Phillips was wrong
in predicting his own victory during his unsuccessful PNP
leadership challenge last fall (reftel I),his analysis of
the West Portland contest was supported by comments by key
Jamaican private sector leaders at a March 18 lunch hosted
by CDA (septel).

Three Conceivable Outcomes: the Implications
--------------

5.(C) In post's estimation, the West Portland by-election
now appears to have three conceivable outcomes. In order
of likelihood, they are:

(A) Vaz by a close margin: In post's estimate, Vaz is
likely to win by roughly five percentage points. He would
regain the West Portland seat, thus preserving the narrow
32-28 parliamentary majority enjoyed by PM Golding's JLP
government. However, a close margin of victory would raise
doubts about the JLP's retention of seats in three other
districts in which similar by-elections are anticipated in
coming months: North East St. Ann (Shahine Robinson); North
East St. Catherine (Gregory Mair); and North West Clarendon
(Michael Stern)(reftel A).

(B) Vaz by a landslide: Vaz enjoys strong popular support,
and has maintained publicly that he will be disappointed if
he does not win by a wide margin. This outcome would put
the JLP in a stronger position in the run-up to the other
anticipated by-elections: barring unforeseen developments,
Robinson would almost certainly win, and Mair and Stern
would be strengthened.

(C) Rowe in an upset: If Rowe were to pull off an upset
victory, it would cut the JLP government's parliamentary
majority to a razor-thin 31-29 and shake the party to its
very foundations. PM Golding would come under immense
pressure. While national elections are not
constitutionally required until September, 2012, and
Golding would prefer not to risk a snap national election
until economic recovery is at last in sight, whether the
JLP could cling to power without losing any other seats is
highly doubtful.
HEG