Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KATHMANDU930
2009-10-09 12:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:
NEPAL: MAOIST COMBATANTS TO BE DISCHARGED - MAYBE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000930
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST COMBATANTS TO BE DISCHARGED - MAYBE
Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i., Jeffrey A. Moon. Reasons 1.4 (
b/d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000930
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST COMBATANTS TO BE DISCHARGED - MAYBE
Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i., Jeffrey A. Moon. Reasons 1.4 (
b/d).
1. (SBU) Summary: Under a new agreement between the Ministry
for Peace and Reconstruction and the Maoists, the discharge
process for disqualified Maoist combatants is scheduled to
restart with a high-level joint visit to a cantonment on
October 11. The Ministry hopes to transfer all disqualified
combatants into transition centers by November 19. The
previous agreement on discharging collapsed in July after it
became clear the Maoists were not sincere. It is unclear to
what extent the Maoist will support this new plan, despite
Peace Ministry claims a breakthrough consensus has been
reached. End Summary.
LITMUS TEST VISIT ON OCTOBER 11
--------------
2. (C) UNMIN confirmed there will be visit to a cantonment
site on October 11 to kick off the new process. The Peace
Minister, Maoist People's Liberation Army (PLA) Deputy
Commander Khanal, UNMIN, UNDP, and UNICEF officials plan to
be in attendance. (Note: UNICEF provides assistance to the
disqualified combatants who are minors, and will be involved
in the retraining programs for the minors. End note.) The
previous visit to meet with disqualified combatants July 17
was a disaster; the group questioned why they had been
disqualified and demanded to be integrated into the Nepal
Army. Government officials and UNMIN blamed the Maoists for
orchestrating the opposition and not sending a high-level
Maoist official to signal support. This time the Maoists
have agreed to send Deputy Commander Khanal, and have told
the Peace Ministry that they will make it clear to the
disqualified that it is time to leave the cantonments.
3. (C) UNMIN officials stated the Maoists were allowed to
choose the site for the October 11 visit, Cantonment Site 2
in Sindhuli, and hope it will be a less hostile crowd. 375
disqualified combatants are registered in the camp, but UNMIN
estimates that there are only 250 remaining. Other
cantonments have possibly seen similar levels of abandonment
by the disqualified.
PURPORTED CONSENSUS
--------------
4. (C) Under the plan, the government will create a
high-level committee to finalize the details and administer
the discharge process. The disqualified combatants will move
from cantonments sites to retraining facilities, where they
will receive skills training. UNDP's Michael Brown and
UNICEF officials told emboffs October 8 that retraining
proposals are in place, but the Peace Ministry will
ultimately coordinate implementation. Brown said the most
important part of the October 11 visit is to determine what
type of training the disqualified combatants want, a
conversation that has been blocked by the Maoists until now.
UNMIN HAS DOUBTS, BUT IS HOPEFUL NONETHELESS
--------------
5. (C) UNMIN Special Representative Karin Landgren, in a
meeting with diplomats on October 8, expressed very guarded
optimism that the new plan has a better chance of success
than earlier ones. She attended the Peace Ministry's
negotiations and reported that the Maoists agreed for the
first time to appoint specific individuals, PLA Deputy
Commander, Chandra Prakash Khanal "Baldev" and Kul Prasad
K.C. "Sonam", to serve as representatives to the discharge
committee. Landgren expressed disappointment that many
details remained up in the air, but said that if the parties
waited for specifics the discharge process would never get
off the ground.
6. (C) When asked how to measure success for the October 11
trip, UNMIN said it was hoping for a joint statement with the
Maoists after the trip's completion. Landgren was not
willing to predict success, except to say, "We've got to give
it another try, and see what happens." Landgren said there
is no reason to believe the process will be completed by
KATHMANDU 00000930 002 OF 002
November 19.
7. (C) Comment: Post is skeptical of Maoist intentions
towards this latest discharge plan. The naming of high
profile Maoists to promote the discharge plan to the
disqualified combatants is a positive step. Even if the
process gets underway however, the Maoists could still drag
it out well into next year if they choose. Post also notes
that the last flurry of activity around the discharge process
occurred in the weeks before the UNSC was to review UNMIN's
mission. Perhaps not coincidentally, the UNSC will discuss
Nepal again on November 6. End Comment.
MOON
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST COMBATANTS TO BE DISCHARGED - MAYBE
Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i., Jeffrey A. Moon. Reasons 1.4 (
b/d).
1. (SBU) Summary: Under a new agreement between the Ministry
for Peace and Reconstruction and the Maoists, the discharge
process for disqualified Maoist combatants is scheduled to
restart with a high-level joint visit to a cantonment on
October 11. The Ministry hopes to transfer all disqualified
combatants into transition centers by November 19. The
previous agreement on discharging collapsed in July after it
became clear the Maoists were not sincere. It is unclear to
what extent the Maoist will support this new plan, despite
Peace Ministry claims a breakthrough consensus has been
reached. End Summary.
LITMUS TEST VISIT ON OCTOBER 11
--------------
2. (C) UNMIN confirmed there will be visit to a cantonment
site on October 11 to kick off the new process. The Peace
Minister, Maoist People's Liberation Army (PLA) Deputy
Commander Khanal, UNMIN, UNDP, and UNICEF officials plan to
be in attendance. (Note: UNICEF provides assistance to the
disqualified combatants who are minors, and will be involved
in the retraining programs for the minors. End note.) The
previous visit to meet with disqualified combatants July 17
was a disaster; the group questioned why they had been
disqualified and demanded to be integrated into the Nepal
Army. Government officials and UNMIN blamed the Maoists for
orchestrating the opposition and not sending a high-level
Maoist official to signal support. This time the Maoists
have agreed to send Deputy Commander Khanal, and have told
the Peace Ministry that they will make it clear to the
disqualified that it is time to leave the cantonments.
3. (C) UNMIN officials stated the Maoists were allowed to
choose the site for the October 11 visit, Cantonment Site 2
in Sindhuli, and hope it will be a less hostile crowd. 375
disqualified combatants are registered in the camp, but UNMIN
estimates that there are only 250 remaining. Other
cantonments have possibly seen similar levels of abandonment
by the disqualified.
PURPORTED CONSENSUS
--------------
4. (C) Under the plan, the government will create a
high-level committee to finalize the details and administer
the discharge process. The disqualified combatants will move
from cantonments sites to retraining facilities, where they
will receive skills training. UNDP's Michael Brown and
UNICEF officials told emboffs October 8 that retraining
proposals are in place, but the Peace Ministry will
ultimately coordinate implementation. Brown said the most
important part of the October 11 visit is to determine what
type of training the disqualified combatants want, a
conversation that has been blocked by the Maoists until now.
UNMIN HAS DOUBTS, BUT IS HOPEFUL NONETHELESS
--------------
5. (C) UNMIN Special Representative Karin Landgren, in a
meeting with diplomats on October 8, expressed very guarded
optimism that the new plan has a better chance of success
than earlier ones. She attended the Peace Ministry's
negotiations and reported that the Maoists agreed for the
first time to appoint specific individuals, PLA Deputy
Commander, Chandra Prakash Khanal "Baldev" and Kul Prasad
K.C. "Sonam", to serve as representatives to the discharge
committee. Landgren expressed disappointment that many
details remained up in the air, but said that if the parties
waited for specifics the discharge process would never get
off the ground.
6. (C) When asked how to measure success for the October 11
trip, UNMIN said it was hoping for a joint statement with the
Maoists after the trip's completion. Landgren was not
willing to predict success, except to say, "We've got to give
it another try, and see what happens." Landgren said there
is no reason to believe the process will be completed by
KATHMANDU 00000930 002 OF 002
November 19.
7. (C) Comment: Post is skeptical of Maoist intentions
towards this latest discharge plan. The naming of high
profile Maoists to promote the discharge plan to the
disqualified combatants is a positive step. Even if the
process gets underway however, the Maoists could still drag
it out well into next year if they choose. Post also notes
that the last flurry of activity around the discharge process
occurred in the weeks before the UNSC was to review UNMIN's
mission. Perhaps not coincidentally, the UNSC will discuss
Nepal again on November 6. End Comment.
MOON