COOPERATION KEY TO SOUTH ASIAN WATER SECURITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000779

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV EAID TBIO PGOV NP
SUBJECT: COOPERATION KEY TO SOUTH ASIAN WATER SECURITY


1. (U) Summary. The battle over water will drive
geopolitical relations in South Asia in the 21st century as
the flow of Himalayan rivers becomes increasingly
unpredictable due to climate change, according to regional
experts who attended a recent conference in Kathmandu. The
only way to ensure that the nearly 40 percent of the world,s
population that depends on these rivers has a secure supply
of water is through meaningful scientific and governmental
cooperation. End summary.

Battle over Water Resources Looming
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2. (U) Water security will drive geopolitical relations in
South Asia in the 21st century as nations in the region
struggle to ensure an adequate supply, according to regional
experts who attended a recent conference in Kathmandu on
August 6 and 7. Ilmas Futehally of the Mumbai-based
Strategic Foresight Group, which sponsored the event, said
the clash to control oil that drove international
geopolitical relations for much of the 20th century is being
supplanted by the water security issues, especially in South
Asia. Climate change is fueling the fight by making the flow
of rivers in the Himalayan basin more unpredictable,
according to World Bank economist Claudia Sadoff. She
pointed out that nearly 40 percent of the world,s population
depends on these rivers.


3. (U) The potentially explosive nature of water security
issues was evident at the outset of the conference when an
Indian participant complained about Chinese plans to build a
large dam in the upper reaches of the Bramhaputra in Tibet,
claiming it would adversely affect India,s intention to
build a series of hydropower dams, with a total capacity of
50,000 megawatts, downstream. Zhang Shuang, director of the
Nature Conservancy in China, cautioned that finger-pointing
was counterproductive, and reminded participants that Tibet
was a politically-sensitive issue for China.

Region,s Interconnectivity Underscored
--------------

4. (U) The presence of a large Chinese contingent among the
30 some participants highlighted the crucial role China will
play in resolving water security issues. The headwaters of
nearly all Himalayan rivers are in the vast Tibetan Plateau.


5. (U) Retired Major General A.N.M. Muniruzzman, president
of the Bangladesh Institute for Peace and Security Studies,
further underscored the region,s close interconnectivity on
water resource issues. He pointed out that 52 rivers flow
into Bangladesh from India, a "regional hegemon" he berated
for being uncooperative in addressing issues of mutual
concern.

Climate Change Adversely Affecting Rivers
--------------

6. (U) Experts pointed out that climate change has, in
recent years, resulted in lower than average levels of
precipitation in the Himalayas, the "Water Tower of Asia,"
and, hence, lower flows in the rivers originating there.
Equally worrying, they said, are the tremendous variations in
where and when the precipitation falls.

Pollution Exacerbates Water Insecurity
--------------

7. (U) Noted Nepali water expert Ajaya Dixit pointed out
that pollution is also affecting water security. "Why have
we, the current generation, allowed our rivers to turn into
open sewers... when our ancestors had conserved these rivers
for thousands of years?" he asked. Not all the water
pollution is man-made, however. Muniruzzman noted that about
80 percent of the groundwater in Bangladesh is contaminated
by naturally-occurring arsenic.

Greater Understanding, Greater Cooperation Needed
-------------- --------------

8. (U) Participants decried the lack of detailed
understanding of the Himalayan river systems in general and
the impact of climate change on them. Closing this knowledge
gap, they said, requires greater regional and international
cooperation. Sadoff said the World Bank launched its South

KATHMANDU 00000779 002 OF 002


Asia Water Initiative (SAWI),in part, to address this
concern.


9. (U) As part of SAWI, the Bank is working with key
technical agencies in India and Bangladesh to expand
understanding of the Ganges Basin. A Bangladeshi participant
pointed to his country,s agreement allowing India to
construct the Farakka dam as an example of the dire
consequence of ignorance. The dam reduced water flow in the
Ganges, increasing salinity downstream, which, in turn,
rendered barren large swaths of once-fertile land in
Bangladesh.


10. (U) A senior Chinese participant said China looks
forward to cooperating with other nations in the region to
better manage water resources. Such cooperation, he said,
must be based on the principle that all participants will be
winners. He recommended that a regional institute be
established to facilitate the exchange of information, which,
in time, could be developed into a multi-lateral Himalayan
Basin management commission.

Time for Action
--------------

11. (U) Several participants stressed the need to move
beyond just talk, which they said, to date, has produced few
concrete results. "Unless the required science and
technological know-how are brought into the hands of local
communities in the region so that they can understand and
they adapt to climate change," said Dipak Gyawali, an
internationally renowned water resource expert from Nepal,
"we will only be blowing a lot of hot air."
MOON