NEPAL: MAOISTS ON CONSENSUS GOVERNMENT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000756

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IN NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOISTS ON CONSENSUS GOVERNMENT,
CONSTITUTION & PEACE PROCESS

Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i., Jeffrey Moon. Reasons 1.4 (b/d
).


1. (SBU) Summary: The Maoist Central Committee,s top
priority is to force a parliamentary debate on the "civilian
supremacy" issue and then to establish a consensus government
under Maoist leadership. The Maoists will not agree to a
"high-level mechanism" for resolving inter-party disputes on
constitutional and peace process issues until a new
government is established. The Maoists believe that "it is
our right" to lead the next government, but it is unclear
whether former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, aka
"Prachanda", would return to that position in a new
Maoist-led government. End Summary.


2. (C) The following report is based on Charge,s August 13
meeting with Krishna Bahadur Mahara, Politburo member of the
Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist and member of the
Constituent Assembly (CA). Mahara also leads the Maoists,
Foreign Affairs and Organization Departments, was Minister
for Information and Communications during the Maoist
government of 2008-2009, and was the Maoists, chief peace
negotiator during the insurgency.

Immediate Priorities
--------------

3. (SBU) The Maoists decided at their recent Central
Committee meetings that their top short-term priority is a
parliamentary debate on the constitutionality of the
President,s April 2009 decision to reinstate the Chief of
the Army Staff, General Katawal. The Maoists seek only an
open discussion of this "civilian supremacy" issue and do not
intend to demand the President,s removal. They recognize
that they might lose a parliamentary vote on the
constitutionality question and would stand down on this issue
if that occurred. They believe, however, that leaders of the
two other major parties, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the
United Marxist-Leninist (UML),fear embarrassment and oppose
the request because a significant percentage of NC and UML
members would side with the Maoist position.


4. (SBU) In the meantime, the Maoists have scheduled
peaceful demonstrations over the coming month not to create
political disturbances, but rather to force the government to
debate the "civilian supremacy" issue. When Charge asked
whether the Maoists were certain the demonstrations would not
result in violence, our source acknowledged the possibility
that they could. He was confident, however, that the scope
of the demonstrations could be contained and asserted that
protests were the only mechanism available for forcing the
issue. The Maoists believe that the "civilian supremacy"
issue will be addressed and demonstrations concluded by the
end of September.

"Consensus" Government
--------------

5. (SBU) Several other important decisions were also made
during recent Central Committee meetings. The Maoists
decided that there should be a "national consensus
government." They are confident that no significant
political initiatives are possible without their support and
that "it is our right" to lead the next government. As a
last option, they might be prepared to accept the leadership
of another party if "all other issues are settled to our
satisfaction."


6. (SBU) Other top Maoist priorities are drafting the new
constitution and advancing the peace process. The Maoists
are not prepared to address those issues, however, until the
"consensus government" is formed. They maintain contact with
the other parties, but the "high-level mechanism" (HLM)
intended to resolve inter-party disputes has yet to be
activated. There is a working group comprised of two
representatives from each of the major parties that is
discussing terms of reference for the HLM. The Maoists fear
other parties will use the HLM to resolve "governance" issues

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and thereby support the M.K. Nepal government, so the Maoists
will decline to participate until they belong to the ruling
coalition.


7. (SBU) If the Maoists lead the next government, it is
unclear who would be Prime Minister. Pushpa Kamal Dahal, aka
"Prachanda", has told party colleagues he wants to focus on
management of the party and does not seek the Prime
Minister,s seat, but Dahal is the only Maoist who could win
complete consensus within the party. Thus, he might return
as Prime Minister if only to prevent divisions within Maoist
ranks over leadership issues. Our source categorically
rejected rumors currently circulating in Kathmandu that NC
leader G.P. Koirala might become Prime Minister again in a
government that includes the Maoists.

Constitution & Peace Process
--------------

8. (SBU) The Maoists recognize the importance of drafting
the new constitution and have decided not to disrupt any of
the drafting committees. They favor a multiparty democracy
with a unicameral parliament and a directly elected
president. They also propose a procedure for the parliament
to remove the president with a two-thirds majority. Ideally,
the Maoists would like to create a consensus government --
presumably under their leadership -- within a multi-party
system that can survive for the next 20 to 30 years. They
favor a centralized state that includes federal districts and
accommodates the federalism demands of minorities.


9. (SBU) The major sticking point in the peace process is
the Maoist Army cantonment and integration issue. The
Maoists insist that their combatants must be accommodated in
a respectful manner and integrated into the military, using
appropriate suitability criteria, or accommodated into other
security forces, such as industrial or transportation
security forces. The Maoists recognize that other major
parties have historically lacked confidence in Maoist
promises on the peace process, and are suspicious that the
party ultimately wants to go back to war. The Maoists deny
those suspicions and expect that the HLM -- if and when it is
established -- will be the forum for resolving both
constitutional and peace process issues.

Ideology
--------------

10. (SBU) The recent Central Committee meetings also
included discussions of ideology. The party has decided that
the theories of Mao and Stalin are not applicable to Nepal,
and that the Maoists must adopt an approach that takes into
account Nepal,s current realities. The leadership has made
strong headway in convincing party members of the need for
changes in theory and rhetoric. For example, Maoist
statements no longer refer to India and the United States as
"expansionist" and "imperialist", respectively. The Maoist
drift away from the influence of communist parties in India
and the United States also reflects this change.


11. (SBU) Charge asked in that context whether press reports
of Dahal,s comments during his current trip to Europe were
accurate. Specifically, he inquired whether the BBC
accurately reported that Dahal urged Asian nations to work
together to reduce American influence in the region. Our
contact said he could not confirm the accuracy of those press
reports, but was certain that views quoted by the BBC did not
reflect Central Committee policy.

Dahal,s European Trip
--------------

12. (C) There has been much speculation in Kathmandu about
the itinerary and purpose of Dahal,s trip to Europe. The
British Ambassador told Charge on August 11 that the Maoists
declined a British offer to arrange official meetings and
provide any other assistance possible. According to our
source, Dahal,s trip to Europe was a private visit at the
invitation of Nepali friends. Dahal also planned to visit

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Belarus, but we have no additional details.


13. (C) Comment: One rumor currently circulating is that
Mahara might be the next Maoist Prime Minister. The rumor
probably started because some observers think India is
maneuvering to install a pro-Indian, Maoist Prime Minister.
Mahara is a possible candidate because he is close to Dahal,
has broad support within the Maoist party, and is relatively
pro-Indian. When asked about Indian attitudes regarding the
next government, Mahara noted that "India always plays a role
in Nepal,s politics," but observed that the Maoist party
would decide on its own leaders. He also expressed concern
that India might try to weaken the Maoists by supporting
candidates that would create splits within Maoist leadership
circles. End Comment.
MOON