Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KATHMANDU732
2009-08-06 10:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:
NEPAL: MAOIST THREATS SPARK ANGST, RUMORS
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000732
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST THREATS SPARK ANGST, RUMORS
REF: A. KTM 726
B. KTM 697
Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i. Jeffrey Moon. Reasons 1.4 (b/d
).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000732
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST THREATS SPARK ANGST, RUMORS
REF: A. KTM 726
B. KTM 697
Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i. Jeffrey Moon. Reasons 1.4 (b/d
).
1. (C) SUMMARY: Maoist Leader Dahal,s public and private
statements that his party intends to topple the M.K. Nepal
government have prompted speculation about the fallout from
Maoist demonstrations scheduled to begin on August 7.
Discussions between Maoists and Nepali Congress (NC) leaders
have sparked rumors that those parties might join forces to
establish a new government. There is also speculation India
is working behind the scenes to get a pro-Indian Maoist Prime
Minister installed. END SUMMARY.
MAOIST INTENTIONS
--------------
2. (U) The Maoists have promised to kick-off a one-month
schedule of escalating protests on August 7 (reftel A). The
party's stated goal is to force a discussion in the
Constituent Assembly (CA) of the President's reinstatement of
COAS General Katawal. Meanwhile, former Maoist Prime Minister
Pushpa Kamal Dahal (aka Prachanda) gave a speech August 4 in
his Constituent Assembly (CA) district saying the current
government was "like an eclipse in Nepali politics and will
vanish on its own."
3. (C) Dahal's private comments appear to confirm Maoist
intentions to bring down M.K. Nepal's government. Jeetendra
Narayan Dev, spokesperson for a government coalition
party--Madhesi People's Right's Forum (MPRF),told Emboff he
was in a meeting with Dahal on August 5. Dahal told the
group there were only two options--M.K. Nepal steps down, or
the Maoists hold protests for the next four to five months,
presumably with the goal of paralyzing the capital.
4. (U) The government is apparently taking the threat
seriously. According to press reports confirmed by post,
M.K. Nepal called a meeting of all 22 coalition parties to
discuss the government's response to the Maoist threats. It
is unclear how the government will decide, as the meeting is
underway as of this writing.
NEPALI CONGRESS - MAOIST NEGOTIATIONS
--------------
5. (C) During the past week, G.P. Koirala, Nepali Congress
(NC) party leader, held meetings with Dahal regarding the
creation of a high-level political working group, which would
be tasked with breaking disputes on key issues in the peace
process and constitution development. Post has heard
multiple unconfirmed rumors that during these meetings
Koirala and Dahal also discussed creating a coalition
government led by the NC and the Maoists. Narayan Dev said
Dahal claimed he did not want to be PM, but that the job must
go to a Maoist.
INDIAN INFLUENCE
--------------
6. (C) Narayan Khadka, a senior Nepali Congress party leader
and CA member, told Charge on August 4 that he took the
Maoist threat of demonstrations seriously and believed that
India was encouraging the ouster of M.K. Nepal. Khadka
thought the Indians favored the establishment of a new
government under a Maoist Prime Minister who is sympathetic
to Indian interests. According to Khadka, the Indians do not
trust former Prime Minister Dahal, who they regard as too
close to China, and are thus pressing for another Maoist
leader to head the new government. Former Maoist Finance
Minister Baburam Bhattarai would be an appropriate candidate,
but the Indians reportedly fear that his elevation would
encourage suspicions of Indian influence. Khadka thus
believed that India was pressing behind the scenes for a
moderate, second-tier Maoist leader to assume the Prime
Minister position.
COMMENT
KATHMANDU 00000732 002 OF 002
--------------
7. (C) Demonstrations and rumors of a new government in the
works are nothing new, but Dahal,s public and private
statements and the announced schedule of protests are
increased cause for concern. If the Maoist threat of
demonstrations is more than bluster, M.K. Nepal,s government
may soon face its most significant test to date.
MOON
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST THREATS SPARK ANGST, RUMORS
REF: A. KTM 726
B. KTM 697
Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i. Jeffrey Moon. Reasons 1.4 (b/d
).
1. (C) SUMMARY: Maoist Leader Dahal,s public and private
statements that his party intends to topple the M.K. Nepal
government have prompted speculation about the fallout from
Maoist demonstrations scheduled to begin on August 7.
Discussions between Maoists and Nepali Congress (NC) leaders
have sparked rumors that those parties might join forces to
establish a new government. There is also speculation India
is working behind the scenes to get a pro-Indian Maoist Prime
Minister installed. END SUMMARY.
MAOIST INTENTIONS
--------------
2. (U) The Maoists have promised to kick-off a one-month
schedule of escalating protests on August 7 (reftel A). The
party's stated goal is to force a discussion in the
Constituent Assembly (CA) of the President's reinstatement of
COAS General Katawal. Meanwhile, former Maoist Prime Minister
Pushpa Kamal Dahal (aka Prachanda) gave a speech August 4 in
his Constituent Assembly (CA) district saying the current
government was "like an eclipse in Nepali politics and will
vanish on its own."
3. (C) Dahal's private comments appear to confirm Maoist
intentions to bring down M.K. Nepal's government. Jeetendra
Narayan Dev, spokesperson for a government coalition
party--Madhesi People's Right's Forum (MPRF),told Emboff he
was in a meeting with Dahal on August 5. Dahal told the
group there were only two options--M.K. Nepal steps down, or
the Maoists hold protests for the next four to five months,
presumably with the goal of paralyzing the capital.
4. (U) The government is apparently taking the threat
seriously. According to press reports confirmed by post,
M.K. Nepal called a meeting of all 22 coalition parties to
discuss the government's response to the Maoist threats. It
is unclear how the government will decide, as the meeting is
underway as of this writing.
NEPALI CONGRESS - MAOIST NEGOTIATIONS
--------------
5. (C) During the past week, G.P. Koirala, Nepali Congress
(NC) party leader, held meetings with Dahal regarding the
creation of a high-level political working group, which would
be tasked with breaking disputes on key issues in the peace
process and constitution development. Post has heard
multiple unconfirmed rumors that during these meetings
Koirala and Dahal also discussed creating a coalition
government led by the NC and the Maoists. Narayan Dev said
Dahal claimed he did not want to be PM, but that the job must
go to a Maoist.
INDIAN INFLUENCE
--------------
6. (C) Narayan Khadka, a senior Nepali Congress party leader
and CA member, told Charge on August 4 that he took the
Maoist threat of demonstrations seriously and believed that
India was encouraging the ouster of M.K. Nepal. Khadka
thought the Indians favored the establishment of a new
government under a Maoist Prime Minister who is sympathetic
to Indian interests. According to Khadka, the Indians do not
trust former Prime Minister Dahal, who they regard as too
close to China, and are thus pressing for another Maoist
leader to head the new government. Former Maoist Finance
Minister Baburam Bhattarai would be an appropriate candidate,
but the Indians reportedly fear that his elevation would
encourage suspicions of Indian influence. Khadka thus
believed that India was pressing behind the scenes for a
moderate, second-tier Maoist leader to assume the Prime
Minister position.
COMMENT
KATHMANDU 00000732 002 OF 002
--------------
7. (C) Demonstrations and rumors of a new government in the
works are nothing new, but Dahal,s public and private
statements and the announced schedule of protests are
increased cause for concern. If the Maoist threat of
demonstrations is more than bluster, M.K. Nepal,s government
may soon face its most significant test to date.
MOON