NEPAL: MAJORITY SUPPORT FOR UML-LED GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000420

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAJORITY SUPPORT FOR UML-LED GOVERNMENT

REF: A. KATHMANDU 414

B. KATHMANDU 398

Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) On May 17 the Madhesi People's Rights Forum announced
it would support Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist
Leninist and Nepali Congress efforts to form a new government
under the leadership of Madhav Kumar Nepal, bringing the
coalition support over the majority threshold. Election of
the Prime Minister has not yet been scheduled and
negotiations about cabinet portfolios are ongoing. For now,
the Maoists are continuing to prevent the Parliament from
meeting to form a new Nepali government.

A Majority for UML-Led Government
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2. (U) The efforts of the Communist Party of Nepal - United
Marxist Leninist (UML) and Nepali Congress (NC) to form a new
government under the leadership of former UML chief Madhav
Kumar Nepal received a critical boost on May 17 when the
Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF) announced it would back
the UML-NC coalition. Without the MPRF's backing, the
UML-led coalition had been stuck below the 301 votes
necessary to form a government. (Note: The Constituent
Assembly consists of 601 members; under the interim
constitution, election of a new prime minister requires the
support of a majority of the membership.) After the NC (114
seats) and UML (108 seats),the MPRF (53) would be the
third-largest party in the coalition. The coalition has
garnered the support of 20 parties and the Assembly's two
independents -- all but the Maoists and three minor parties.

Next steps
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3. (SBU) Although the Maoists have been preventing the
Constituent Assembly (CA) from functioning in its legislative
capacity since PM Dahal resigned on May 4, top Maoist leaders
had previously announced they would halt their protests once
the UML and NC established they had the support of a majority
of MPs. The Maoist central committee meeting May 18 however,
reportedly decided to continue their protests and disruptions
until President Yadav's May 3 move to reinstate Nepal Army
chief General Katawal is overturned. At close of business on
May 18, CA Chairman Nemwang had not yet scheduled the
election of the Prime Minister. Maoists disrupted the
legislative session scheduled for May 18. Negotiations about
which parties will receive which ministries, and who will
fill those positions are still in the early stages. Embassy
sources indicate election of the Prime Minister is likely to
take place before the full cabinet is agreed upon.

Comment
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4. (C) Although the UML-NC-MPRF coalition apparently now has
the votes with other smaller parties to replace the
Maoist-led government, internal and intra-party divisions
will make the cabinet formation process a difficult one.
Finding appropriate positions for politicians from twenty
parties will be a challenge. There is still no guarantee
that the new coalition will take over. Some way still has to
be found to persuade the Maoists to stop disrupting the CA
long enough to let the new government form. A last-minute
deal to bring the Maoists into the government cannot be ruled
out either. According to media reports, Maoist CA Member and
Foreign Department Head CP Gajurel's statements at a rally on
May 17 in Nepalgunj alleged "the President's unconstitutional
move was directed by Delhi and Washington." If the Maoists
do end up going into opposition, their protests, which have
been largely peaceful so far, could turn violent.
POWELL