NEPAL: LEAKED VIDEO SPARKS "PRACHANDAGATE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000389

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: LEAKED VIDEO SPARKS "PRACHANDAGATE"

REF: A. KATHMANDU 377

B. 08 KATHMANDU 308

Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) On May 4, a Nepalese television station released a
video of Maoist leader Pushpa Dahal addressing a group of
Maoist combatants at a cantonment in Chitwan on January 2,

2008. On May 6, Dahal defended his actions in a press
conference.

In the 2008 video, Dahal claimed that:

- The real strength of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) was
between 7,000 and 8,000, not 35,000 as publicly claimed by
the Maoists.

- The Maoists intended to siphon off money for the
administration of the cantonments for the preparation of
future hostilities.

- The Constituent Assembly (CA) election and integration of
Maoists into the Nepal Army would be a stepping stone toward
full power.

In the May 6 press conference, Dahal claimed that:

- The video was a pep talk for the combatants at a time when
the CA election was not yet certain and should not be taken
out of context.

- The Maoists were and continue to be committed to the peace
process.

A Video Revealed - False Numbers
--------------


2. (SBU) On May 4 -- just hours after Pushpa Kamal Dahal
resigned as Prime Minister -- Image Channel TV, an
independent Nepalese television station, released a video of
Dahal addressing a group of Maoist People's Liberation Army
(PLA) commanders and combatants at Shatikhor cantonment in
Chitwan on January 2, 2008. In the 80-minute speech,
recorded three months before the April 10 Constituent
Assembly (CA) election, Dahal boasted that the Maoists had
manipulated the verification process of the United Nations
Mission in Nepal (UNMIN). He said that contrary to popular
belief, the PLA had increased rather than reduced its
strength through the verification process. The Maoists had
claimed 35,000 combatants, almost 20,000 of which UNMIN
verified. Dahal said the PLA's true strength was between
7,000 and 8,000, of which only 4,000 would have been verified
if UNMIN had known the truth. UNMIN spokesman Kosmos
Biswokarma said on May 6 that the Maoists did not fool UNMIN
because the Joint Monitoring Coordination Committee,
including representatives of the PLA and Nepal Army, followed
due process with the trust of the political parties, which
led to UNMIN's final count. Biswokarma said there was no
disagreement or slip up in the verification process.

A Video Revealed - Embezzlement
--------------


3. (SBU) In the video, Dahal further explained that the
Maoists would need the money that the Government of Nepal
(GON) was to provide for cantonment administration --
approximately USD 7.5 million -- to prepare for revolt. He
said that the first 100 million rupees (USD 1.25 million)
would be for trucking in "stuff" -- i.e., weapons and other
material for war. In total, one third of the money earmarked
for cantonments would be used to further the goal of control
of the state. The additional money that would go to the
families of martyrs would help repair the party's
deteriorating relations with the common people. Describing
his strategy for winning the CA election, Dahal said that the

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Maoists would tell families that 100,000 rupees would be
provided as relief, and that they would be able to receive a
"full compensation" of one million rupees if they supported
the party. (Note: Ref B describes the World Bank's proposal
to fund 100,000 rupees -- approximately USD 1500 at the time
-- for each of the 14,000 victims and families of martyrs.
In August 2008, the World Bank's Emergency Peace Support
Program gave more than 3 billion rupees -- almost USD 40
million -- to the GON to pay the allowances of the former
combatants and relief to victims' families. End note.)

A Video Revealed - Full Power the Ultimate Goal
-------------- --


4. (SBU) Dahal reminded the combatants that the revolution
was not over and that the Maoists would seize power whether
through the ballot or through protests. He promised that the
party had not forsaken its ultimate goal and asked his cadres
not to be swayed by compromises the Maoists struck with other
parties. He acknowledged that some Maoists might think that
their leaders were having "tea with enemies," forgetting the
revolutionary agenda, but the reality was the opposite.
Dahal said that the Maoists would use integration to subvert
the Nepal Army into an instrument to establish a totalitarian
Maoist regime. The soon-to-be Prime Minister said he
believed he could "indoctrinate the National Army and make
them ours" -- and that was why Chief of the Army Staff
Katawal opposed integration.

An Explanation Attempted
--------------


5. (C) In a press conference on May 6, Dahal made a weak
attempt to explain away the video as something from 16 months
ago that was now irrelevant. Dahal said that he was speaking
to the PLA to raise morale amid the uncertainty of holding CA
elections. He did not intend to cast doubt about the
Maoists' commitment to the peace process. Defending the
numbers, he said that counting the Maoists' regional armies
and its militia, the real PLA was 100,000 strong. The
several thousand mentioned in the video referred only to the
functional force under the Maoist central command. Earlier
in the day, he told the Ambassador and several other foreign
envoys that his remarks in the video had been taken out of
context (Ref A).

A Mystery Source
--------------


6. (C) During the press conference, Dahal accused
"reactionary elements" who wanted to divert public attention
from their "unconstitutional" move against the elected
government for circulating the videotape to the media. The
caretaker Prime Minister said he would launch an internal
inquiry about the leaked tape. On May 7, Image FM quoted an
unnamed Maoist source and reported that the party had
detained for interrogation "suspicious people" involved in
shooting Maoist videos. Former Finance Minister Dr. Prakash
Chandra Lohani told Emboff on May 5 that the television
station had had a copy of the tape for "a while." Media
reports on May 7 claimed that the Nepal Army released the
video to the media with approval from President Yadav.
Others believe it was released by RAW, Indian intelligence.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) PM Dahal's swift response to the video and his
pronouncement to the media that the next government would be
formed under Maoist leadership suggest that the Maoists
appear determined to push through the current crisis. The
full extent of the ramifications of "Prachandagate" -- as
some local media are calling the tape controversy -- will
reveal itself over the coming days. All of the
then-governing political parties, as well as the Nepal Army,
agreed to UNMIN's verification of 19,600 combatants, which
was completed in December 2007. The tape in one sense
changes very little. Those who trusted the Maoists'

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intentions will take PM Dahal's advice and disregard his
taped admissions. Those who mistrusted Dahal and the Maoists
feel vindicated. What is clear is that the prospects for
political consensus and progress on peace process issues,
particularly integration and rehabilitation of Maoist
combatants, will be more difficult. UNMIN and to a lesser
extent the World Bank also come out looking, at least to
some, as at best gullible about Maoist intentions.
POWELL