Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KATHMANDU298
2009-04-13 09:25:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:  

NEPAL: MAOISTS WIN THREE OUT OF SIX SEATS IN

Tags:  PGOV PTER KDEM NP 
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VZCZCXRO8327
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DE RUEHKT #0298/01 1030925
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 130925Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0031
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6900
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 7218
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 2540
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 5262
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 6412
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2966
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 4554
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3473
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000298 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOISTS WIN THREE OUT OF SIX SEATS IN
BY-ELECTIONS

Summary
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000298

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOISTS WIN THREE OUT OF SIX SEATS IN
BY-ELECTIONS

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) The Unified Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist
(UCPN-M or Maoists) emerged as the winners of the Constituent
Assembly by-elections on April 10, winning seats in three out
of six constituencies. The Communist Party of Nepal - United
Marxist Leninist (UML),Nepali Congress (NC),and Madhesi
People's Rights Forum (MPRF) each won a constituency;
however, the NC lost two constituencies it had won in the
April 2008 election -- one to the Maoists and one to the UML
-- while the MPRF lost one constituency it won in 2008 to the
NC. Observers from the Carter Center, National Democratic
Institute (NDI),UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human
Rights (OHCHR),and the Canadian Embassy noted that technical
glitches, violence, and disagreements among party workers
marred voting and counting in some of the constituencies, but
their overall assessment of the election was positive.

Results
--------------


2. (SBU) On April 10, one year to the day of the 2008
Constituent Assembly (CA) elections, the Nepal Election
Commission held by-elections to fill six vacant seats in the
601-member CA. In five cases, CA members won in two
constituencies. In the sixth case, Ram Baran Yadav had to
vacate his seat upon becoming President. The results of the
CA by-elections are as follows:

Morang-5 - Jaya Ram Yadav, MPRF (keeping the seat previously
won by Upendra Yadav)

Morang-7 - Shekhar Koirala, NC (winning the seat previously
won by MPRF's Bijay Gachhadar)

Dhanusa-5 - Raghubir Mahashet, UML (winning the seat
previously won by NC's Ram Baran Yadav)

Kaski-1 - Krishna Bahadur Gurung, UCPN-M (keeping the seat
previously won by Dev Gurung)

Rolpa-2 - Santosh Budhamagar, UCPN-M (keeping the seat
previously won by Prime Minister Dahal)

Kanchanpur-4 - Harish Thakulla, UCPN-M (winning the seat
previously won by NC's Sher Bahadur Deuba)

Violence Among the Polls...
--------------


3. (SBU) Dhanusa, the most hotly contested constituency,
experienced a series of violent incidents and voting
irregularities prior to and during the by-election. On April
9, the Terai Rastriya Mukti Sena (Terai National Liberation
Army),an armed group that had called a poorly-enforced
three-day "bandh" (strike) in the district to disrupt the

polls, allegedly abducted Santosh Shah, a candidate from the
minor Communist Party of Nepal - Marxist Leninist. As of
April 13, Shah's whereabouts were unknown; unconfirmed
reports indicated that he was released to the police, while
some watchers speculated that he orchestrated his own
kidnapping to increase his votes. Mahashet, the winning UML
candidate, reportedly instigated a clash between UML Youth
Force cadres and the NC on the afternoon of April 10,
temporarily delaying voting in one polling center. Mahashet
accused the local administration of supporting the NC
candidate (Dr. Chandra Mohan Yadav, the son of President
Yadav) and announced to journalists the he "will either
kill...or will die." A Carter Center observer in Dhanusha
recounted at least three cases of booth capturing, primarily
by the UML but in one case by the NC.

...But Districts Mostly Calm
--------------


4. (SBU) Observers from the Carter Center, NDI, OHCHR, and
Canadian Embassy commented on the security at the polling

KATHMANDU 00000298 002 OF 003


centers, much improved from the original CA election. The
country director of NDI noted that police had a strong,
organized presence in every constituency -- upwards of 25
police at a polling center, compared to three or four during
the 2008 election. Despite violent clashes in the days
preceding the election between the Maoists and Matrika
Yadav's splinter group, the security environment in the two
Morang constituencies was surprisingly calm, according to the
Local Development Officer and other post contacts. An
observer from the domestic organization DEAN reported that a
clash between the Youth Force and Maoist's Young Communist
League in Rolpa was resolved early in the morning. No other
major incidents occurred in Rolpa, although disagreements
among the contending parties stalled vote counting throughout
the day on April 11. Counting resumed after the parties
reached an agreement that evening. Kaski and Kanchanpur
remained calm, although the former suffered from technical
difficulties with the voting machines and the latter saw
particularly low voter turnout.

Technical Snafus
--------------


5. (SBU) Malfunctioning electronic voting machines
interrupted polling in 11 centers in Kaski. Technicians
repaired the machines in eight of the centers and replacement
machines for the remaining centers were flown in from
Kathmandu. Additionally, one machine lost 400 votes. Despite
delays of up to four hours and the narrow win of the Maoists
over the NC (by three dozen votes),the parties have yet to
dispute the Kaski results. In other constituencies, polling
centers experienced minor glitches with the electronic voter
machines, mostly revolving around faulty batteries. Some
older voters appeared confused about how to use the machines,
but overall, people seemed to trust the electronic machines
more than the previous paper-and-stamp method of voting.
(Note: In the April 2008 election, only one constituency in
Kathmandu used electronic voter machines. Every constituency
used the electronic machines for the by-elections. The
Election Commission and U.S.-funded organizations initiated
voter education programs in each of the constituencies. End
note.)

Identification Issues and Low Voter Turnout
--------------


6. (SBU) Polling stations strictly enforced the new
requirement from the Election Commission that all voters must
present citizenship cards as identification. Nepalese voters
generally regarded the requirement as a positive development
because it minimized the possibility of fraudulent votes.
International observers said they saw little evidence that
the requirement disenfranchised legitimate voters, although
they did report some instances to the contrary. Police
prevented people without citizenship cards from entering the
polling areas. In a few cases, polling officials rejected
people with certified photocopies or newer, smaller
citizenship cards. Women in rural areas in particular faced
difficulties, as they were more likely not to have a
citizenship card or not have the name on the card match the
surname on the voters list. An observer from the Carter
Center noted that the turnout in Kanchanpur was as low as 30
percent and attributed this to a combination of
identification issues, excessive heat, and general
disinterest in the by-election.

Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) These by-elections will not change the political
equation. The overall assessment of domestic observers and
the few international observers is that the election went
relatively smoothly. Problems, where they arose, were
localized, and with the possible exception of one
constituency (Kaski) do not appear to have skewed the
results. At first glance, the most interesting new addition
to the CA is former Prime Minister Koirala's nephew and
former peace negotiator, Shekhar Koirala. There is already

KATHMANDU 00000298 003 OF 003


talk of what role he would play on the national level.
POWELL