Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KATHMANDU1061
2009-11-20 11:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:
NEPAL: UML LEADER URGES HARDLINE AGAINST MAOISTS
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001061
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: UML LEADER URGES HARDLINE AGAINST MAOISTS
Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i., Randy W. Berry. Reasons 1.4 (b
/d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001061
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: UML LEADER URGES HARDLINE AGAINST MAOISTS
Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i., Randy W. Berry. Reasons 1.4 (b
/d).
1. (C) Summary: The political deal between Maoist Chairman
Prachanda and Nepali Congress leader Koirala, reached in
Singapore, will collapse, according to UML senior leader K.P.
Oli. Neither the Nepali Congress nor the UML will support
it. Oli claimed that the Maoists are not serious about the
peace process, and their ultimate goal remains "seizing power
forcibly." End Summary.
Prachanda-Koirala Deal Will Collapse
--------------
2. (C) Maoist Chairman Prachanda and Nepali Congress leader
G.P. Koirala met in Singapore o/a November 15 and agreed to
form a "high-level political mechanism" to break Nepal's
political impasse, according to K.P. Oli (strictly protect),
one of the senior leaders of the Communist Party of
Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML). Oli told P/E Chief on
November 19 that Prachanda and Koirala hope the creation of
the mechanism will lead to the formation of a new government
as soon as next week. Despite the rumored Koirala-Prachanda
accord, Oli said he believes the deal will fall through.
Koirala no longer controls the Nepali Congress (as he once
did),and the UML membership will oppose the deal -- even if
UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal supports it.
Koirala Sick; Desperate to Help Daughter
--------------
3. (C) Oli said that Koirala is very sick and desperate to
secure political power for his daughter, current DeputyPM and
ForMin Sujata Koirala, before he dies. (Oli suggested
Koirala has stage-three lung cancer.) Sujata Koirala's
future, not national or party interests, is driving G.P.
Koirala's dealings with the Maoists. According to Oli,
Koirala's long illness has taken its toll; he is "no longer
thinking clearly."
Maoists Intentions Clear -- Seize Power
--------------
4. (C) Considered a hard-liner on the peace process, Oli
sharply criticized the Maoists and urged the United States to
"maintain" its tough stance against the party. Oli said the
Maoists are simply the latest (albeit more refined) global
extremist movement, no different than Pol Pot or the Shining
Path. They have learned to speak with a "silver tongue," but
their agenda remains the same -- to "seize power forcibly."
The Maoists are using the peace process for their own ends,
and have no intention of fulfilling their commitments.
5. (C) According to Oli, he tried for years to "moderate" the
Maoists, meeting with them secretly in India throughout the
conflict. As a fellow communist, Oli urged the Maoists to
use "ideas, not weapons" in their struggle, but said he has
given up. He admitted there are differences of opinion
within the Maoist leadership, but as long as the Maoists have
guns, the "pragmatists" will remain in lockstep with the
hardline leaders.
India Role Unclear
--------------
6. (C) India's policy toward Nepal is in flux, according to
Oli, who is rumored to be close to the Government of India
(GOI). Some in New Delhi are sympathetic to the Maoists, and
believe they need to be part of the coalition government;
others are more "realistic" about Maoist intentions. Oli
believes that "elements of the GOI" were present at the
Koirala-Prachanda meeting in Singapore -- hinting at Indian
intelligence -- although he did not have any details. (Note:
Oli left for New Delhi on November 18, ostensibly for an
Indian communist conference, but told P/E Chief he would also
be meeting with "senior" GOI officials. End Note.)
UML Leader Khanal Weak
--------------
7. (C) Oli also criticized his own party leader, Jhala Nath
Khanal, calling him weak and indecisive. (Note: Oli lost a
hard-fought battle for control of the UML at the February
KATHMANDU 00001061 002 OF 002
2009 party convention. End note.) The Maoists continue to
"deceive" Khanal, who is easily persuaded to their "pro-poor,
anti-feudal" rhetoric. Hinting that he was the real power in
the party, Oli recounted the story of how Khanal wanted to
support Baburam Bhattarai for chair of the Constitutional
Committee, but that Oli instead promoted Nepali Congress
member Nilamber Acharya (who won the election).
Comment
--------------
8. (C) Intelligent and articulate, Oli is one of the most
strident anti-Maoist leaders in Nepal. We understand Oli
remains influential in New Delhi, and his lobbying may be one
reason India has become increasingly skeptical about Nepal's
Maoists. While we do not disagree with his basic analysis
about Maoist long-term goals (seizing power),Oli and his
followers lack any proactive agenda for moving the peace
process forward. We agree that pressure on the Maoists
should intensify, but the UML and Nepali Congress must also
demonstrate flexibility. Without Maoist engagement in the
political process, it will be difficult to make progress on
drafting the constitution and completing the peace process.
BERRY
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: UML LEADER URGES HARDLINE AGAINST MAOISTS
Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i., Randy W. Berry. Reasons 1.4 (b
/d).
1. (C) Summary: The political deal between Maoist Chairman
Prachanda and Nepali Congress leader Koirala, reached in
Singapore, will collapse, according to UML senior leader K.P.
Oli. Neither the Nepali Congress nor the UML will support
it. Oli claimed that the Maoists are not serious about the
peace process, and their ultimate goal remains "seizing power
forcibly." End Summary.
Prachanda-Koirala Deal Will Collapse
--------------
2. (C) Maoist Chairman Prachanda and Nepali Congress leader
G.P. Koirala met in Singapore o/a November 15 and agreed to
form a "high-level political mechanism" to break Nepal's
political impasse, according to K.P. Oli (strictly protect),
one of the senior leaders of the Communist Party of
Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML). Oli told P/E Chief on
November 19 that Prachanda and Koirala hope the creation of
the mechanism will lead to the formation of a new government
as soon as next week. Despite the rumored Koirala-Prachanda
accord, Oli said he believes the deal will fall through.
Koirala no longer controls the Nepali Congress (as he once
did),and the UML membership will oppose the deal -- even if
UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal supports it.
Koirala Sick; Desperate to Help Daughter
--------------
3. (C) Oli said that Koirala is very sick and desperate to
secure political power for his daughter, current DeputyPM and
ForMin Sujata Koirala, before he dies. (Oli suggested
Koirala has stage-three lung cancer.) Sujata Koirala's
future, not national or party interests, is driving G.P.
Koirala's dealings with the Maoists. According to Oli,
Koirala's long illness has taken its toll; he is "no longer
thinking clearly."
Maoists Intentions Clear -- Seize Power
--------------
4. (C) Considered a hard-liner on the peace process, Oli
sharply criticized the Maoists and urged the United States to
"maintain" its tough stance against the party. Oli said the
Maoists are simply the latest (albeit more refined) global
extremist movement, no different than Pol Pot or the Shining
Path. They have learned to speak with a "silver tongue," but
their agenda remains the same -- to "seize power forcibly."
The Maoists are using the peace process for their own ends,
and have no intention of fulfilling their commitments.
5. (C) According to Oli, he tried for years to "moderate" the
Maoists, meeting with them secretly in India throughout the
conflict. As a fellow communist, Oli urged the Maoists to
use "ideas, not weapons" in their struggle, but said he has
given up. He admitted there are differences of opinion
within the Maoist leadership, but as long as the Maoists have
guns, the "pragmatists" will remain in lockstep with the
hardline leaders.
India Role Unclear
--------------
6. (C) India's policy toward Nepal is in flux, according to
Oli, who is rumored to be close to the Government of India
(GOI). Some in New Delhi are sympathetic to the Maoists, and
believe they need to be part of the coalition government;
others are more "realistic" about Maoist intentions. Oli
believes that "elements of the GOI" were present at the
Koirala-Prachanda meeting in Singapore -- hinting at Indian
intelligence -- although he did not have any details. (Note:
Oli left for New Delhi on November 18, ostensibly for an
Indian communist conference, but told P/E Chief he would also
be meeting with "senior" GOI officials. End Note.)
UML Leader Khanal Weak
--------------
7. (C) Oli also criticized his own party leader, Jhala Nath
Khanal, calling him weak and indecisive. (Note: Oli lost a
hard-fought battle for control of the UML at the February
KATHMANDU 00001061 002 OF 002
2009 party convention. End note.) The Maoists continue to
"deceive" Khanal, who is easily persuaded to their "pro-poor,
anti-feudal" rhetoric. Hinting that he was the real power in
the party, Oli recounted the story of how Khanal wanted to
support Baburam Bhattarai for chair of the Constitutional
Committee, but that Oli instead promoted Nepali Congress
member Nilamber Acharya (who won the election).
Comment
--------------
8. (C) Intelligent and articulate, Oli is one of the most
strident anti-Maoist leaders in Nepal. We understand Oli
remains influential in New Delhi, and his lobbying may be one
reason India has become increasingly skeptical about Nepal's
Maoists. While we do not disagree with his basic analysis
about Maoist long-term goals (seizing power),Oli and his
followers lack any proactive agenda for moving the peace
process forward. We agree that pressure on the Maoists
should intensify, but the UML and Nepali Congress must also
demonstrate flexibility. Without Maoist engagement in the
political process, it will be difficult to make progress on
drafting the constitution and completing the peace process.
BERRY